Re: Week 4
Posted by:
nova fan
()
Date: September 21, 2023 12:17AM
Trying my picks against the spread.
parentof2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To be completely honest, outside of 3 or 4 games,
> this week’s slate is rather bland. Most teams
> have played a division game or two, but I believe
> this is the last week with out of conference
> games. Also, the playoff positioning is starting
> to take place. Here are the power point standings
> after week 4 in case anyone is curious:
>
> Region C:
> 1. Lake Braddock (27.00)
> 2. South County (26.25)
> 3. West Springfield (25.00)
> 4. Fairfax (24.75)
> 5. West Potomac (23.67)
> 6. Edison (22.67)
> 7. Hayfield (21.75)
> 8. Lee (21.33)
>
> Region D:
> 1. McLean (29.50)
> 2. Madison (29.00)
> 3. Washington-Lee (29.00)
> 4. South Lakes (26.00)
> 5. Langley (25.25)
> 6. Chantilly (25.00)
> 7. Marshall (24.50)
> 8. Herndon (24.25)
>
>
> Here is this week’s slate:
>
>
> 1. Centreville (-17) @ Oakton
> - Centreville is down this year and pissed about
> getting their boots smoked. I’m expecting them
> to run the score up against a team that’s worse
> than they are.
Centreville hasn't been very good this year, and that's a lot of points to give. I'll take Centreville to win, but not cover.
>
> 2. Falls Church @ Washington-Lee (-35)
> - Old National District match-up. Anyway, expect a
> running clock in the 2nd half in this one.
Washington-Lee wins and covers.
>
> 3. Freedom-Woodbridge (-35) @ Gar-Field
> - Most (if not all) of Freedom’s district games
> are going to be ridiculous blowouts.
Freedom Woodbridge wins and covers.
>
> 4. Hayfield @ South County (-24)
> - The Stallions have won the last 10 in this
> series, with Hayfield’s last win coming in 2012.
> I think the Stallions starting defense will shut
> the Hawks out and when it gets ugly Hayfield will
> get on the board. Stallions win big.
South County is really good this year. They'll win and cover.
>
> 5. Lake Braddock (-6) @ Fairfax
> - Can Fairfax rebound from an embarrassing loss on
> their home field? Can the Bruins replicate what
> the Stallions did and shut Fairfax down? Big
> District and seeding implications on the line in
> this one.
I think Fairfax will bounce back. I'm taking them to win outright.
>
> 6. Lightridge @ Langley (-7)
> - Lightridge has definitely improved since being
> founded, but I’m giving Langley the slight nod
> and I think they prevail in their Homecoming game.
Langley wins and covers.
>
>
> 7. Lee @ Mount Vernon (-24)
> - Barring something extreme, the Majors will get
> their first win of the season this week. The
> Majors have been outscored in their 4 losses, 23
> to 160. I’m sure they miss Coach Fritts.
It's odd to see Lee in actual playoff position. But it's early in the season. Lee comes back to earth. Mt. Vernon wins and covers.
>
> 8. Madison (-15) @ Chantilly
> - Madison is realistically 4 or 5 touchdowns
> better than Chantilly, but given the way they
> play, I think they will win by around 21 points.
Madison wins and covers.
>
> 9. Marshall @ McLean (-3)
> - Game of the week. Hard to believe I just said
> that, but it’s true. We have a 4-0 team against
> a 3-1 team. Both are good teams and this game also
> has district and playoff seeding implications.
> This should be a very close and hard fought game.
> Looking forward to it.
I'd give "game of the week" honors to Lake Braddock at Fairfax, but this should still be a good game. McLean has had a great start to their season. I'll take them to win and cover.
>
> 10. South Lakes (-10) @ Herndon
> - Co-game of the week. Big time rivalry game here.
> Herndon kept it close last year on the road and
> they have a legit chance to win with home field
> advantage. SL has won 8 in a row in this series
> with Herndon’s last win coming in 2014. Herndon
> has to limit South Lakes big plays and if they do
> so, they could very much win this one. Another
> game I am looking forward to.
South Lakes wins and covers.
>
> 11. Stone Bridge @ Good Counsel (MD) (-14)
> - I wonder if Mickey is regretting scheduling all
> of these powerhouses. Aside from Freedom vs.
> DeMatha, public schools don’t stand any chance
> against WCAC powers. At least this is the end of
> the gauntlet for Stone Bridge. Good chance they
> finish the regular season 5-4 and are on the road
> in the first round of the playoffs which is
> unheard of.
Good Counsel wins and covers.
>
> 12. Stuart @ Westfield (-35)
> - Looks like Coach Simmons pulled a Mickey (of the
> past) and scheduled the easiest teams he can find.
> This one is going to be ugly. Don’t know why
> this game is even happening, quite frankly. It’s
> an embarrassment to Westfield to play down like
> this and it’s going to be embarrassing for the
> JEB kids to get their teeth kicked in yet again.
Westfield wins and covers.
>
> 13. T.C. Williams (-3) @ Woodson
> - Toss up game in my opinion. This is one of the
> few games T.C. has a chance to win and I think
> they get it done in a close one on the road with
> Woodson turnovers being the difference.
Normally, this game would be for last place in the Patriot, but this year, I think Robo is going to make a run for that (dis)honor. TCW has a "chance" to win? Yes, but that's because anyone who plays Woodson has a "chance" to win (and a very good one at that). I'm taking TCW to win and cover.
>
> 14. Wakefield @ Edison (-21)
> - Edison should face minimal resistance in this
> one. The Eagles win comfortably.
Wakefield is really bad. Edison wins and covers, easily.
>
> 15. West Potomac (-14) @ Robinson
> - Confused by this years West Potomac squad. They
> are better than Robinson, but if they go on the
> road and throw 6 INT’s again this week, Robinson
> will beat them.
West Po is catching Robo in a down year. West Po wins and covers.
>
> 16. West Springfield (-6) @ Yorktown
> - This is another really intriguing game. Coach
> Hansen and co. have to clean things up and execute
> a thorough gameplan as I feel that the Spartans
> are the better team in this one. But with Yorktown
> having home field advantage and coming off a big
> rivalry loss, you never know. With that being
> said, I like the Spartans to prevail on the road
> but I would not be surprised to see Yorktown win a
> close one.
This is Patriot v. Liberty. Liberty isn't at the level of National, but Patriot is still better. In such a battle, I'll take the Patriot team. West Springfield wins and covers.