Re: high school redistricting
Date: October 29, 2007 03:17AM
Thomas More,
What makes you think that Stu will honor a promise made 4 years ago? Can't he say that things have changed, projections were wrong (as they always are), yada, yada, yada. This year, Stu has refused tell Herndon parents that Aldrin and Armstong will not be moved.
Let's do the math, with the goal of reducing crowding at Westfield and placing 800 additional kids at SL. I used current enrollment at these schools, divided by 7 for how many students in each grade, then multiplied by 4 for the total number who would be in 4 high school grades at one time. A round about method, but it works.
McNair=520 in high school
Fox Mill=400
Aldrin=310
Armstrong=260
Crossfield=440
Floris=560
Navy=480
Madison Island==30 (at most since most of these kids won't go to South Lakes)
McNair is closest to South Lakes, so it goes, that's 500 students. Adding Floris, or Crossfield, or Fox Mill or Navy, adds too many students. Add Aldrin or Armstong to South Lakes, along with McNair, and the island, and the total to South Lakes is very close to 800. That's exactly how many students are needed to fill South Lakes. We can assume that most of the island won't go, and quite a few from Aldrin and Armstrong, but it should still be close to 700 to South Lakes.
Four years out, Herndon will be 350 under enrolled. Add another 300 for the loss of Aldrin or Armstong, for a total of 650. Send Floris, with 560 students, and Herndon's under enrollment is fixed.
Removing McNair and Floris from Westfield brings their enrollment closer to the 2,100 students that staff now claims is the perfect number of students.
That seems to me to be the most logical thing to come out of the community meetings. The easiest thing for Stu is to move Floris and McNair into South Lakes since they are both in his district. But that would put over 1,000 new students into South Lakes, presumably too many.
Of course we all know that the new projected enrollments, that won't be unveiled until after the election, will show South Lakes continuing to be very under enrolled, with Westfield and possibly Chantilly over enrolled. The numbers will show whatever they want them to show, whatever supports their planned agenda.
McNair has to go somewhere, if there is a goal to reduce crowding at Westfield. Since it's closest to South Lakes, that's where the community meetings will send it. Some people in Reston are foolish enough to believe that McNair will be sent to Oakton, 13 miles away, rather than South Lakes, 5 miles away. These same people believe that Stu will get Fox Mill and Crossfield into South Lakes and send McNair to Oakton. They're dreaming, if not delusional. There is no way the communities are going to agree to that. It makes no sense to have McNair hop over South Lakes to go all the way to Oakton. It also makes little sense to do a bunch of dominoes and upset even more communities.
OR, we could face the fact that none of these schools is seriously over enrolled and there is no reason for anyone to have to be forced to go to South Lakes. We can then vote for Arakelian against Stu and go back to the drawing boards.