Let me apologize up front for the length of this reply. You've asked important questions. My answer includes two attachments and a couple links to some resources you may find useful.
1) How do you define the NCR? Is it by distance to Washington, DC? How many miles?
For these discussions, it’s best to use the same definition Congress does, from TITLE 10--ARMED FORCES, Sec. 2674: “The term ‘National Capital Region’ means the geographic area located within the boundaries of (A) the District of Columbia, (B) Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties in the State of Maryland, (C) Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties and the City of Alexandria in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and (D) all cities and other units of government within the geographic areas of such District, Counties, and City.”
2) How many of the 18,800 who are already in the NCR actually live in Virginia? What part of Virginia? What is their current average distance and commute time to Ft. Belvoir?
I don’t have the data at my fingertips, but you’ll find it in the Environmental Impact Statement at [http://www.hqda.army.mil/acsim/brac/nepa_eis_docs.htm]. The document includes regional maps showing the breakdown by percentage of where folks live now, commute from, etc. I found it intriguing that a great many of the NGA workers whose jobs are moving to EPG from Bethesda in Montgomery County, for example, already live in and around Tysons Corner and other Northern Virginia ZIP codes.
3) Although I understand why you state that the Army is not concerned about children, it would be helpful to know what your demographers and planners estimate as the number of children who will come into the NCR, and more specifically the South County school boundary, as well as how many will leave.
I didn’t say the Army isn’t concerned about children. Fact is, I have said many times that there is not a parent on the planet more concerned for children and their education than a parent who is a federal employee or member of the military. Again, the estimated number is in the Final EIS. (Wading around in an EIS takes time, especially flipping back and forth to the various maps and tables. But, then again, that’s where a great deal of the data is.) On page 5-21 of the Belvoir EIS, you will find this point, with reference to tables that will show you the breakdown by jurisdiction throughout the NCR:
“Schools. Long-term adverse effects would be expected to occur on off-post schools. Continued regional population growth would increase primary and secondary school age enrollment. Many school districts in the ROI [“Region of Impact”] have schools operating at or above capacity. Portable classrooms are used to provide sufficient classrooms space for the students to maintain student-to-teacher ratios and small class sizes. Although the increased population base would provide education funding through taxes, having sufficient funds to meet the needs of enrollment growth, building new schools, hiring new teachers and other support staff such as guidance counselors, teacher salary agreements, and instructional materials continues to be a challenge because of budget constraints and the rising cost of education. However, other BRAC actions occurring in the ROI would result in the transfer of 14,500 jobs out of the NCR (see Section 5.10.1). An estimated 12,700 school-age children would be associated with these employees and would be moving out of the region, more than the estimated 10,185 children (see Table 4.10-13) that would relocate within the ROI due to the Fort Belvoir BRAC action. The outmigration of these families would reduce the impact of the Fort Belvoir BRAC action on public schools. As noted in Section 5.10.1, even though there would be a loss of personnel in the ROI due to other BRAC actions, it is anticipated that the office space vacated by BRAC personnel would be expected to eventually be backfilled with other office workers (see Section 5.1.3).”
Coincidentally, at about the same time the Corps of Engineers was finishing up the EIS, the Northern Virginia Workforce Investment Board released its own study, done for them by GMU, assessing the impact of BRAC at Fort Belvoir and Quantico. That study found that:
• The net effect by 2011 on southern Fairfax and Prince William Counties is an estimated 677 new workers moving their households into the area and 1,932 new residents living in those households as a result of BRAC actions in Fort Belvoir, Quantico and Bailey’s Crossroads. To place this growth into context, Prince William County alone will likely add more than 60,000 total new residents by 2011. Fairfax will likely add another 24,000 residents. Thus, the likely impact of new residents is relatively small compared with on-going growth in the counties.
• The BRAC actions will likely cause an increase in Prince William school enrollment of about 358 new children, southern Fairfax County can expect an additional 50 more children, and Stafford County might expect nearly 145 new students by 2011. These numbers pale in comparison to the on-going growth occurring in Prince William and Stafford Counties already. During that same period, Prince William is already projected to add about 11,000 new school-aged children and Stafford will likely add about 3,000 to their school enrollments.
The WIB-GMU study is attached below (NoVA_BRAC_Report072207.pdf). Another report, “BRAC 2005: Redefining Virginia’s Military Structure,” is also attached (BRAC_Redefine.pdf).
4) This additional information should make clear why the Army opposes building South County Middle School. I'm sure you'll agree that it is important for the residents of South County to know these facts so that they can understand why the Army has taken this position against South County Middle School.
I am sorry that perception is out there. The Army doesn’t in any way oppose building South County Middle School. There is nothing on record to indicate the Army has ever taken such a position. Again, the parent does not exist who is more concerned for the quality of education of their children than parents who are military or federal employees.
The issue involves a couple of fundamental questions. Is it simply the raw number of kids (whether that number be 50, 268 or 3,258) affiliated with a group of jobs, or is it where they actually reside? Is a community’s need for a school driven by the number of kids in that community, or by the number of households in that community? What Dr Dale said about that in September 2006 (see [http://www.belvoir.army.mil/docs/PAO_Program_wma_65_quality.wmv]) is probably the best answer. The occasion was a Mount Vernon Town Hall held specifically for South County’s residents – ironically, the meeting was at South County High School. When a citizen asked about BRAC impact on schools, Dr Dale said the FCPS depends very heavily on the Board of Supervisors and its approval of planning & zoning measures on where homes can be built. He actually said that, where the post is concerned, it doesn’t matter so much whether there are “5,000, 10,000, even 50,000” new people working there.
The question of impact on schools, then, it seems to me, is not answered so much in knowing a simple number of kids associated with a group of jobs (at Fort Belvoir, at the government center, or at the Wegmans around the corner) as in knowing how many homes there are available for those families to live in.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/26/2008 07:49AM by Don Carr.
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