Re: Damn Snow Drifts
Date: January 31, 2016 12:39AM
yeah 175 Million and will grow. ABOUT FEB 5 -11 TIME FRAME -- SEVERAL POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREATS
This is Saturday evening post is a brief discussion about the various possible East Coast winter storm threats which exists during the seven day interval from February 5 -11. There actually a couple different possibilities which have to be looked at.
THREAT #1 - FEB 5 EASTERN NC / SE VA ONLY
The strong cold front which will arrive on the East Coast February 4 will stall on the Southeast U.S. Coast late on FEB4 and FEB 5. There is no doubt that a wave of LOW pressure is likely to form on the front and this weak LOW could pass close enough to Cape Hatteras NC to bring precipitation into the eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA. Given how warm it is s going to be on Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday... it appears that this precipitation will likely be rain for eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA. BUT there is a small chance that IF...IF... if the cold air gets into eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA.. The precipitation type maybe snow instead of rain. The odds of THREAT #1 working out and bringing a period of snow to Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia on Friday, February 5 is not high but it can't be ruled out completely.
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THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than Threat #1
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THREAT #3 FEB 9-10.. This is the one I have been more focused about over the past few days. The " signal" from the various weather models appear to be more significant with this system. Not only does the European ensemble model support THREAT #3 as the more serious of the three possibilities but so does the Canadian and the GFS ensemble models.