We have 3 indicators being released in just a few minutes. Anyone want to wager on the numbers?



Jun 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales May - 4.50M 4.56M 4.62M -
Jun 21 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jun - -3.5 -0.2 -5.8 -
Jun 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators May - 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -

I dunno Ronnie....


Recovery Summer officially started yesterday, maybe things are looking up?
Attachments:

Month over month existing home sales down -1.5%

Freddie Mack 3.66%

Philly Fed -16.6 (worst ever)

Leading Eco. Ind. up a whopping .3%

Unemployment new claims 387000 K (will be revised up next week to well over 190K)

Enjoy flipping burgers

The good news is with Obamanomics in full swing, Crude oil has now dropped below $80.00 per barrel.

Financial information firm Markit said its U.S. "flash" manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.9 from 54.0 in May. The June reading was the lowest since last July

Again....


Why, why why- did people feel that Obama was ready for this tough job?
Attachments:

WingNut Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Again....
>
>
> Why, why why- did people feel that Obama was
> ready for this tough job?



Simple,they are stupid.

And Obama's apologists are becoming more and more scarce, day by day.

actual data

http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2012/embargoes/2012-05-ehs-e1d96c1872dc5b71807d9a48067044af/ehs-05-2012-overview02012-06-21.pdf

Actual sales rose 11.0% from last month. Sales are pretty close to last year's peak of 440K in June.

I wouldn't trust seasonal adjustments in econ data right now. The warm winter seems to have pushed things forward. Also, homeowners appear to have held their homes off the market longer than usual. I live next to two realtors and the activity in listing new homes has picked up sharply during the last month. Not a day goes during the last four weeks that they aren't putting up new signs.

Lester Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> actual data
>
> http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports
> /2012/embargoes/2012-05-ehs-e1d96c1872dc5b71807d9a
> 48067044af/ehs-05-2012-overview02012-06-21.pdf
>
> Actual sales rose 11.0% from last month. Sales
> are pretty close to last year's peak of 440K in
> June.
>
> I wouldn't trust seasonal adjustments in econ data
> right now. The warm winter seems to have pushed
> things forward. Also, homeowners appear to have
> held their homes off the market longer than usual.
> I live next to two realtors and the activity in
> listing new homes has picked up sharply during the
> last month. Not a day goes during the last four
> weeks that they aren't putting up new signs.


lol Typical. Selective stats as 'facts.' Beyond stating the obvious, I think that you need to look at your numbers again. You seem to have confused some things, at least per your linked source.

Of course real estate sales pick up around this time. They do every year. That's why they do the seasonal adjustments. Month-to-month numbers largely are pointless for these data. Why don't you check the year-over-year numbers and back a while and let us know how that looks.

And your own statement is at least somewhat contradictory in that you're claiming things were pushed forward to explain the lower number reported and then appear to be saying that things have picked up in more recent months.

"It's Globalization Stupid"

That's the original data. NAR produces the existing home sales report. The Census Bureau reports the new home sales.

Seasonal figures compared month-to-month or year-over-year are largely useless when there's considerable variation.

For a better perspective at the housing data, look at the series of seasonally adjusted figures for 2012 versus the average for all of 2011, then look at the YTD comp for 2012, and reach your own conclusion as to the bias in the seasonal adjustment and what they might portend in the months ahead.

Lester Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That's the original data. NAR produces the
> existing home sales report. The Census Bureau
> reports the new home sales.
>
> Seasonal figures compared month-to-month or
> year-over-year are largely useless when there's
> considerable variation.
>
> For a better perspective at the housing data, look
> at the series of seasonally adjusted figures for
> 2012 versus the average for all of 2011, then look
> at the YTD comp for 2012, and reach your own
> conclusion as to the bias in the seasonal
> adjustment and what they might portend in the
> months ahead.

Then post the source that supports your post not another which doesn't. lol I'm well aware of where various housing stats come from.

They're not useless, that's precisely the point. To show the variation for the equivalent seasonal data versus the previous year(s). Whether it tracks on exactly the same curve isn't of particular significance to anyone other than politicians and schizophrenic day traders.

In any case, even with the most optimistic view there's nothing to really crow about. I'm not sure why people expect that we're going to crank right back up again. Not going to happen for a long, long time.

It might help if you actually knew that NAR and realtor.org are related.

The rest of it is neither here nor there.

I was neither being optimistic or pessimistic, just indicating that the seasonally adjusted numbers are way off. Weather was just one part of the distortion. MERS lawsuits in 2010/2011 was another. The overcorrection in the seasonality (see previous post) will swing in the other direction in the latter part of this year.

I liked Obamas first stimulus plan. We hire half the country to dig holes and the other half to fill them in. 100% employment.