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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Rain makes Corn
()
Date: June 06, 2019 02:59PM
Which states will Trump take in 2020?
Ohio is my guess. Only Ohio.
Ohio is my guess. Only Ohio.
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Nein, nyet, nichivo, nada
()
Date: June 06, 2019 04:18PM
I’m guessing he won’t carry any. Everyone is hurting under this administration
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Bill.N.
()
Date: June 06, 2019 04:24PM
The better question is which states must Trump win in order to have a reasonable chance of winning in 2020.
With all the noise about how Democrats are coming on strong in places like Georgia and Texas, unless Trump gets seriously trounced he will carry those states. He may carry them by less than 5 points, possibly by less than 3, but a win is a win.
At this point the following states can reasonably be expected to be in play in 2020 based on the 2016 election: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin that went for Trump and New Hampshire and Minnesota that went for Clinton. Other states where the margin of victory was slightly larger but are still balanced enough to be in play would include North Carolina, Arizona (both Trump) and New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado (all Clinton). The outcome of the 2019 election might move Virginia into that list as well.
In a race against a generic Democrat Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flip and Trump loses. However Trump won't be running against a generic Democrat. His opponent will likely be someone with some flaws of his or her own which may end up turning off Democratic voters or moving moderates to vote Republican, not just in states where Trump won in 2016 but also in states Clinton won.
With all the noise about how Democrats are coming on strong in places like Georgia and Texas, unless Trump gets seriously trounced he will carry those states. He may carry them by less than 5 points, possibly by less than 3, but a win is a win.
At this point the following states can reasonably be expected to be in play in 2020 based on the 2016 election: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin that went for Trump and New Hampshire and Minnesota that went for Clinton. Other states where the margin of victory was slightly larger but are still balanced enough to be in play would include North Carolina, Arizona (both Trump) and New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado (all Clinton). The outcome of the 2019 election might move Virginia into that list as well.
In a race against a generic Democrat Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin flip and Trump loses. However Trump won't be running against a generic Democrat. His opponent will likely be someone with some flaws of his or her own which may end up turning off Democratic voters or moving moderates to vote Republican, not just in states where Trump won in 2016 but also in states Clinton won.
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
President Trump FTW!
()
Date: June 06, 2019 04:47PM
All 57.
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Broke the mold for better/worse
()
Date: June 06, 2019 06:48PM
Trump has energized Republicans, conservatives, libertarians and independents. These groups have famously stayed home in past races, or unenthusiastically showed up in small numbers for McCain or Romney. If Trump doesn't appear to sell these voters out, they will be back.
Democrats have complained that voter turnout was low. It was not. It was lower than Obama 58.2% in 2008, but still higher than many of the elections of the past several decades. At 55.7%, the 2016 had higher turnout than Obama in 2012 (54.9%), GW Bush in 2000 (51.7%), Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (55.2% and a paltry 49% respectively), George HW Bush in 1988 (50.2%) and even both of Reagan's elections where turned never exceeded 54%. The 2008 election of Barack Obama was exceptional turnout and an exceptional election, not a standard to be expected.
Third party candidates also effected the 2016 election- negatively for Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson received more votes than Independent Evan McMullin or the Green Party's Jill Stein combined. In fact, Johnsons votes in toss-up states like NV, CO, NM, NH, ME and MN were large enough to have swayed these electoral votes to Trump. If Clinton had picked up the support of all McMullin and Stein voters in these six states, it still would not have been enough to stop Trump from reaching an astonishing 342 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton was an especially bad candidate and part of the blame lies there. Can the Democrats put forward a likable enough candidate with a high enough semblance of honesty to avoid this fate in 2020? Can a populist straight talker like Bernie draw enough independents and moderates and avoid pushing corporate bigwigs still skeptical of Trump towards him?
Trump has changed the Republican Party for better in the eyes of many by embracing trade and immigration policies that were once Kryponite to Country Club GOP Establishment types.Trump has also shown a reluctance to engage in foreign conflict; more so than could be said of Clinton or Biden.
Regardless of Trumps fumbles and foibles, the Democrats have a great challenge ahead of themselves.
Democrats have complained that voter turnout was low. It was not. It was lower than Obama 58.2% in 2008, but still higher than many of the elections of the past several decades. At 55.7%, the 2016 had higher turnout than Obama in 2012 (54.9%), GW Bush in 2000 (51.7%), Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (55.2% and a paltry 49% respectively), George HW Bush in 1988 (50.2%) and even both of Reagan's elections where turned never exceeded 54%. The 2008 election of Barack Obama was exceptional turnout and an exceptional election, not a standard to be expected.
Third party candidates also effected the 2016 election- negatively for Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson received more votes than Independent Evan McMullin or the Green Party's Jill Stein combined. In fact, Johnsons votes in toss-up states like NV, CO, NM, NH, ME and MN were large enough to have swayed these electoral votes to Trump. If Clinton had picked up the support of all McMullin and Stein voters in these six states, it still would not have been enough to stop Trump from reaching an astonishing 342 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton was an especially bad candidate and part of the blame lies there. Can the Democrats put forward a likable enough candidate with a high enough semblance of honesty to avoid this fate in 2020? Can a populist straight talker like Bernie draw enough independents and moderates and avoid pushing corporate bigwigs still skeptical of Trump towards him?
Trump has changed the Republican Party for better in the eyes of many by embracing trade and immigration policies that were once Kryponite to Country Club GOP Establishment types.Trump has also shown a reluctance to engage in foreign conflict; more so than could be said of Clinton or Biden.
Regardless of Trumps fumbles and foibles, the Democrats have a great challenge ahead of themselves.
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
President Trump FTW!
()
Date: June 07, 2019 06:33AM
Why is it so hard for people to understand? President Trump wasn't elected by robotic morons who vote republican or democrat he was elected by Americans. The people that can think for themselves and love America. We are tired of career politicians. They are the scum of the Earth. Anybody who loves America is going to vote for president Trump. We are the government, they work for us and we finally have a president upholding that constitution and doing the job we the people elected him to do.
God bless the greatest president in world history, president Donald John Trump and God bless all Americans.
FUCK LIBS!
God bless the greatest president in world history, president Donald John Trump and God bless all Americans.
FUCK LIBS!
Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Sandbag Your Basement?
()
Date: June 07, 2019 07:09AM
Putin just called cadet bone spurs out by testing the US Navy. Hope you boys are proud to have elected Putin’s choice for President. Maybe it’s time for you to man up, enlist.