Re: Election 2020 - Trump States
Posted by:
Broke the mold for better/worse
()
Date: June 06, 2019 06:48PM
Trump has energized Republicans, conservatives, libertarians and independents. These groups have famously stayed home in past races, or unenthusiastically showed up in small numbers for McCain or Romney. If Trump doesn't appear to sell these voters out, they will be back.
Democrats have complained that voter turnout was low. It was not. It was lower than Obama 58.2% in 2008, but still higher than many of the elections of the past several decades. At 55.7%, the 2016 had higher turnout than Obama in 2012 (54.9%), GW Bush in 2000 (51.7%), Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (55.2% and a paltry 49% respectively), George HW Bush in 1988 (50.2%) and even both of Reagan's elections where turned never exceeded 54%. The 2008 election of Barack Obama was exceptional turnout and an exceptional election, not a standard to be expected.
Third party candidates also effected the 2016 election- negatively for Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson received more votes than Independent Evan McMullin or the Green Party's Jill Stein combined. In fact, Johnsons votes in toss-up states like NV, CO, NM, NH, ME and MN were large enough to have swayed these electoral votes to Trump. If Clinton had picked up the support of all McMullin and Stein voters in these six states, it still would not have been enough to stop Trump from reaching an astonishing 342 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton was an especially bad candidate and part of the blame lies there. Can the Democrats put forward a likable enough candidate with a high enough semblance of honesty to avoid this fate in 2020? Can a populist straight talker like Bernie draw enough independents and moderates and avoid pushing corporate bigwigs still skeptical of Trump towards him?
Trump has changed the Republican Party for better in the eyes of many by embracing trade and immigration policies that were once Kryponite to Country Club GOP Establishment types.Trump has also shown a reluctance to engage in foreign conflict; more so than could be said of Clinton or Biden.
Regardless of Trumps fumbles and foibles, the Democrats have a great challenge ahead of themselves.