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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
RoadMusings' patented electoral prediction
Posted by:
RoadMusings_
()
Date: November 05, 2013 06:05PM
McAuliffe 50, Cooch 46, Sarvis 4
Northam 58, Jackson 40
Obenshain 50, Herring 49
Dems gain 2-3 seats in House of Delegates.
(Most likely gains would be the 94th & 87th. I added an extra one because 1) I want to cover my ass and 2) If there are several swingy seats in a wave the "out" party will usually get a majority, if not all of them).
That would bring the House to 66/67 to 34/33. Why not 65? Because the Democrats essentially forfeited a seat they had previously held down in the 4th when the incumbent retired (there's no Democrat running!). That brings the GOP majority to 69-31 at the outset.
We shall see!
Northam 58, Jackson 40
Obenshain 50, Herring 49
Dems gain 2-3 seats in House of Delegates.
(Most likely gains would be the 94th & 87th. I added an extra one because 1) I want to cover my ass and 2) If there are several swingy seats in a wave the "out" party will usually get a majority, if not all of them).
That would bring the House to 66/67 to 34/33. Why not 65? Because the Democrats essentially forfeited a seat they had previously held down in the 4th when the incumbent retired (there's no Democrat running!). That brings the GOP majority to 69-31 at the outset.
We shall see!
Re: RoadMusings' patented electoral prediction
Posted by:
RoadMusings_
()
Date: November 05, 2013 10:53PM
Damn. Cooch pulled alot closer than I thought was possible. What the hell happened? Terry McAuliffe seems congenitally unable to prevent a big end-of-the-race collapse (see 2009). He's lucky this time his lead was so big going in.
EW also did a bit better. I suppose that shouldn't surprise me too much. Ralph Northam has "campaigned" like he was sleepwalking this whole time.
Looks like Obenshain will pull it out, 50-49 ish. The remaining precincts just don't have enough Democratic votes to pull Herring over the top.
Two House seats have flipped, the 2nd and 93rd. The 2nd surprises me. Michael Futrell was a joke of a candidate with almost no money. But now he's a delegate.
Depending upon how the 86th (Tom Rust) turns out, it looks like Dems will net two. With the one they forfeited, that makes the house 67 R, 33 D.
On to the special for Northam's seat!
EW also did a bit better. I suppose that shouldn't surprise me too much. Ralph Northam has "campaigned" like he was sleepwalking this whole time.
Looks like Obenshain will pull it out, 50-49 ish. The remaining precincts just don't have enough Democratic votes to pull Herring over the top.
Two House seats have flipped, the 2nd and 93rd. The 2nd surprises me. Michael Futrell was a joke of a candidate with almost no money. But now he's a delegate.
Depending upon how the 86th (Tom Rust) turns out, it looks like Dems will net two. With the one they forfeited, that makes the house 67 R, 33 D.
On to the special for Northam's seat!
Re: RoadMusings' patented electoral prediction
Posted by:
RoadMusings_
()
Date: November 05, 2013 10:57PM
Seems Tom Rust (R-Fairfax) pulls it out. He'll be the House Transportation Committee chairman come January.
So the House is now 67 R, 33 D.
Going in today it was 68-32. But the Democrats forfeited that seat in the 4th.
So they actually netted one seat.
So the House is now 67 R, 33 D.
Going in today it was 68-32. But the Democrats forfeited that seat in the 4th.
So they actually netted one seat.