Last week.

May be being paranoid, may be I'm just cool with the gains from the last year and don't wanna get caught up.

The fed money will have to stop sometime, and I don't want to be on anything resembling a drop.

What say you FU?

Let me guess, you invested everything in gold and silver? Amirite?

 

I just checked, and in the interests of full disclosure, my stock portfolio is up 18% for the past year.

Im happy, maybe I'll sell some big gainers. How high do you think the market will go before there is a big sell-off?

 

Gold and silver is going to drop along with everything else.

friskydingo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let me guess, you invested everything in gold and
> silver? Amirite?



I predicted a gold bubble about 2-3 years ago when they started shilling it on TV and radio and actually considered ways to short it. Nope, I called that one wrong, wish I had bought it up though.

I sold JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Lowes, FedEx, Pfizer, Hess to name a few oyu've heard of. All winners and did well, but trying to time it.

I don't claim to know shit, but I know the EU is getting wacky again and I know the fed money printing cannot last forever.

Unless there is another gold rush with some technology, housing etc. I think therer will be a major correction.


"Correction".


Yes.

idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM

friskydingo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I just checked, and in the interests of full
> disclosure, my stock portfolio is up 18% for the
> past year.
>
> Im happy, maybe I'll sell some big gainers. How
> high do you think the market will go before there
> is a big sell-off?


May go way higher, my gains were in the mid-20%'s for 2012, but it's a terrible feeling to not have cashed out when ahead.

Feels bad at the gaming table, feels even worse while trading online.

I don't feel like taking it in the shorts for another 3% to 5%.

idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM

WingNut Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Last week.
>
> May be being paranoid, may be I'm just cool with
> the gains from the last year and don't wanna get
> caught up.
>
> The fed money will have to stop sometime, and I
> don't want to be on anything resembling a drop.
>
> What say you FU?

Sold all your stock when the DOW is hitting new highs every day??????

You sir are an idiot. Way to forgo record profits.

I just don't know what to do with the money if I sell now. I don't want to buy gold at the moment either. Maybe I'll just ride out whatever happens... I have plenty of time, Im not retiring or buying a house anytime soon at all. My personal investing is more like a hobby right now.

 

Bush Whacked Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WingNut Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Last week.
> >
> > May be being paranoid, may be I'm just cool
> with
> > the gains from the last year and don't wanna
> get
> > caught up.
> >
> > The fed money will have to stop sometime, and I
> > don't want to be on anything resembling a drop.
> >
> > What say you FU?
>
> Sold all your stock when the DOW is hitting new
> highs every day??????
>
> You sir are an idiot. Way to forgo record
> profits.



The experts say sell high

And I do believe a market correction is around the corner.

 



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/2013 10:09AM by friskydingo.

Bush Whacked Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WingNut Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Last week.
> >
> > May be being paranoid, may be I'm just cool
> with
> > the gains from the last year and don't wanna
> get
> > caught up.
> >
> > The fed money will have to stop sometime, and I
> > don't want to be on anything resembling a drop.
> >
> > What say you FU?
>
> Sold all your stock when the DOW is hitting new
> highs every day??????
>
> You sir are an idiot. Way to forgo record
> profits.


Should we wait and sell when it is hittig record lows everyday?

Whats driving the stock success right now?

WingNut Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bush Whacked Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > WingNut Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Last week.
> > >
> > > May be being paranoid, may be I'm just cool
> > with
> > > the gains from the last year and don't wanna
> > get
> > > caught up.
> > >
> > > The fed money will have to stop sometime, and
> I
> > > don't want to be on anything resembling a
> drop.
> > >
> > > What say you FU?
> >
> > Sold all your stock when the DOW is hitting new
> > highs every day??????
> >
> > You sir are an idiot. Way to forgo record
> > profits.
>
>
> Should we wait and sell when it is hittig record
> lows everyday?
>
> Whats driving the stock success right now?

Record highs are coming from the US getting out of the wars(excess FED money) plus a new bubble building on a more stable economy.

I wish I had the money to buy a house/condo, or at least convince my parents to co-sign on one (which they will never do even though it wouldn't be that big of a deal) >:|

 

friskydingo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wish I had the money to buy a house/condo, or at
> least convince my parents to co-sign on one (which
> they will never do even though it wouldn't be that
> big of a deal) >:|


You former army? Get a first time homebuyer VA loan...interest on the cheap and all vets qualify. As long as you didn't receive a general or dishonorable discharge...

Magic Mike Wrote:

> Record highs are coming from the US getting out of
> the wars(excess FED money)


There is NOT excess fed money, anything saved by not fucking around in the sandboxes is being shit away with quantitive easing, stimulus spending and (probably) upcoming healthcare mandates.


>plus a new bubble
> building on a more stable economy.


Magic word, Mike - BUBBLE.. You must feel it is going to break too.

idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM

friskydingo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wish I had the money to buy a house/condo, or at
> least convince my parents to co-sign on one (which
> they will never do even though it wouldn't be that
> big of a deal) >:|

I'd take off work early this afternoon and look if I were you. Interest rates aren't going to stay low forever.

I think there will be a drop in home prices too, not as substantial as in 2007-10 but when rates go back up, there will be some amount of blood.

I think the Fed will start to prepare the markets for the pullback in money printing by the end of the year. Last week, they changed all their times for the press conferences they hold after the FOMC meetings for the rest of the year.

They'll try to stop but probably can't since almost all asset prices are wildly distorted by their policies to date. Asset prices will revert to what they're worth when the Fed isn't acting as a constant backstop. Even whey stopped printing temporarily during the 20-25% declines in the S&P, the Fed attempted jawboning the markets higher until the markets failed to respond and they felt forced to act.

Housing is going to be slow. We have low interest rates. We have ridiculously easy lending by government lenders who've replaced Wall Street. And most importantly, the 5-8 million foreclosures are being kept off the market by judicial foreclosures, legislative action in non-judicial foreclosure states, and bulk foreclosure sales by Fannie Mae to Wall Street firms.

I took some profits off the table and out of the game, but I certainly would never consider getting out completely. That would be insane and foolish.

I tried to sell all my socks on Ebay but nobody wanted them.

friskydingo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let me guess, you invested everything in gold and
> silver? Amirite?

He bought an emergency seed & bean kit with the money. He's building a "crisis garden".

Meeper still a bumpkin faggot trying to pretend to be hip and citified.

ex-Lester Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They'll try to stop but probably can't since
> almost all asset prices are wildly distorted by
> their policies to date. Asset prices will revert
> to what they're worth when the Fed isn't acting as
> a constant backstop. Even whey stopped printing
> temporarily during the 20-25% declines in the S&P,
> the Fed attempted jawboning the markets higher
> until the markets failed to respond and they felt
> forced to act.
>
> Housing is going to be slow. We have low interest
> rates. We have ridiculously easy lending by
> government lenders who've replaced Wall Street.
> And most importantly, the 5-8 million foreclosures
> are being kept off the market by judicial
> foreclosures, legislative action in non-judicial
> foreclosure states, and bulk foreclosure sales by
> Fannie Mae to Wall Street firms.


The feds are subsidizing the housing market big time, but the only difference between this time and last is the assessed value of the homes aren't as grossly inflated.

We are still paying for it all, but it's a slightly more sensible bet.

Attempting to time the Market is a fool's errand.

and...

Taking profits is never a bad idea.

=====

Having typed that, however, there are indications The Economy is improving (nee - housing starts today), suggesting taking profits NOW is indeed leaving money on the proverbial table.

My money is rather thoroughly still in the Markets.

But money in the pocket (or in the mattress) is rather secure, huh?

Olde Farte, II Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Attempting to time the Market is a fool's errand.
>
> and...
>
> Taking profits is never a bad idea.
>
> =====
>
> Having typed that, however, there are indications
> The Economy is improving (nee - housing starts
> today), suggesting taking profits NOW is indeed
> leaving money on the proverbial table.
>
> My money is rather thoroughly still in the
> Markets.
>
> But money in the pocket (or in the mattress) is
> rather secure, huh?

I hate taking money out of something profitable to basically do nothing with it, CD's and banks don't pay dick.

I just don't see any particular driving force that is keeping us strong besides the money printing. Housing is better, but not gangbusters. I think a lot of the tech stuff like Apple and Microsoft will be stable but not grow nearly as much.

If there was some kind of energy boom, Keystone or if the green energy wasn't so speculative, something would drive the economy.

Just not feeling it now at all.

Here's what I do. When my equity funds have made a lot of money like right now up 11% for the year, I take some of that profit and transfer it to a bond/cash fund. Sure, that's not going to generate much gain, but its a relatively safe haven if the shit hits the fan in equities which could happen.

Speaking of stocks, I own a really dinky literal-pocket-change position in FNMA, bought it years ago, watched it skyrocket, watched it plummet, lost interest in watching it, for some reason after years actually looked at it last night, and see the price has gone up 100+% in a few days - above my original buy-in price - gack!

What a game!

Maybe it's time for me to sell all my Exxon. Sold all my att shares a long time ago before they went down. Made a little good profit from it all.

Was doing well on my 401K, but they changed the plan and now I have to look to see where my money is going and see if I want to keep their choices or make changes.

I'm investing with this Nigerian prince I met in email...

Olde Farte, II Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speaking of stocks,...FNMA...

Good grief - it's up another 40% today.

ex-Lester Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They'll try to stop but probably can't since
> almost all asset prices are wildly distorted by
> their policies to date. Asset prices will revert
> to what they're worth when the Fed isn't acting as
> a constant backstop. Even whey stopped printing
> temporarily during the 20-25% declines in the S&P,
> the Fed attempted jawboning the markets higher
> until the markets failed to respond and they felt
> forced to act.
>

Exactly right. The day that they announce, even if well-telegraphed, the downhill part of the roller coaster will begin. Other event's may happen in the interim, but that one's pretty much guaranteed.

Here's a good gauge for when you know that the market is way too high - When average knuckleheads on forums like this start crowing about how much money they're making in the market. lol

I beg your pardon, I'm an above average knucklehead

It looks like 2015 or 2016 before they stop. The securities owned by the Fed will start to mature and roll off the balance sheet in 2016. They are caught between two problems. The government has to finance 1 trillion dollars in borrowing at the same time the securities held by the Fed start to have to be refinanced. Markets will choke on the supply (see post-TARP in 2008)

WingNut: Good analysis. I'm still in the market, but it absolutely makes sense to take some profits. Problem is: There aren't too many other places to put the money, unless you want to get creative. (And speculative.) You can lend the money in small amounts on a few different websites like Prosper; I'm getting about 16% there. You have to be sure to diversify, though, because some of the loans WILL go bad. I'm also lending some money to a real estate rehabber--3 points plus 12% interest. But I'll be the first to admit there's risk.

And to friskydingo: There are plenty of creative ways to invest in real estate. Even conventionally, as Eli pointed out, veterans can get 100% financing. FHA financing only requires 3.5% down. Beyond that, though, there are lots of ways to get great bargains up front with things like lease-options, seller financing, contract for deed, and more. Just buy for the long-term. Or control (as with lease-options), so that you can protect yourself if the market collapses again. (Not likely, but...) But there are lots of opportunities out there.

Buy Facebook. Buy Facebook.

I could be wrong but I'm right 99% of the time

Lloydster Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Buy Facebook. Buy Facebook.


Only an idiot who got in when the price was still above $30 would offer that adice. I bet you were one of them.

Eli The Sorcerer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> You former army? Get a first time homebuyer VA
> loan...interest on the cheap and all vets qualify.




You still have to have decent great credit and they usually require a large down payment. Just because you are a veteran does not mean you will automatically get a VA home loan.

I hear lots of people say they made money in the market with their investments. But unless you sell those stocks you really havent made a dime.