Source Withheld Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sugar Daddy Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > What's not obvious in this discussion of the
> total
> > amount of our debt held by China is the timing.
>
>
> The timing? That it went from ~700B to 1.6T
> between 2006 and 2010, and then fell back to $1.2T
> by 2012?
>
> I'm not sure what you're getting at.
>
>
> > The larger issue isn't the total, it's the
> extent
> > to which we've come to rely on them in recent
> > years. That is, while the total may now be
> > slightly less than Japan, most all of that has
> > been purchased since about 2006.
>
> Most of it was purchased since 2000. Why did you
> choose 2006? Because it was a dem controlled
> congress after 2006? hmmmm.
>
> We don't actually "rely" on them. When private
> investors and the US Government exceed the amount
> held by BOTH japan and china by a factor of 2, the
> only power they really have is negligible.
>
>
> >
> > Beyond our more recent dependence, the other
> > primary issues are that, regardless whether
> they
> > are #1 or #2, they hold enough of our
> securities
> > that they can affect the market. Should they
> > decide to sell or reduce purchases, then we'd
> need
> > to find other investors to make up the gap and
> > likely raise rates in order to attract enough
> > investment to do so.
>
> That sounds scary! They could affect the market??
> Really! I better hate on Obama then! Get real.
>
> If you understand the inter-relationship, rather
> than the fear tactics being used in this matter,
> you'd know that China cannot use the debt they
> hold as a weapon, and in fact if they were to sell
> off our treasuries it would hurt them as much, if
> not more than it would hurt us. They buy our
> treasuries as a form of reserve, as most nations
> who buy our t-bills. But it also is a way to
> back-fill excess cash into the economy of the main
> purchaser of their products. If we don't have the
> liquidity to buy their cheaply produced gadgets
> and trinkets, they have 300 million workers who
> could lose their jobs.
>
> I know, they only tell you the negative stuff so
> the base can remain riled up and full of fear.
>
>
> >
> > If you actually have any real interest beyond
> > partisan bs, although slightly dated, this
> study
> > from the Congressional Research Service is a
> good
> > independent review:
> >
> >
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34314.pdf
> >
> >
> > "...Treasury data indicated that China’s
> > holdings of U.S. securities have increased much
> > faster than those of any other country. From
> > 2006-2010, China’s holding increased by $912
> > billion (or 130.4%).
> >
>
> Nothing new to me. I didn't just start being
> "concerned" about the deficit and china owning a
> portion of it after Obama was elected. I've known
> about it since the deficit started growing again
> in 2002. All the Johnny-Come-Latelies" ranting
> about it now actually proves it is manipulation
> from a partisan position. The people who are most
> concerned about this now VOTED FOR BUSH in 2004.
> It wasn't a problem back then.
>
>
> > China overtook Japan as the largest holder of
> U.S.
> > securities in 2009, and,
> > as June 2010, its holdings were 15.6% higher
> than
> > that those of Japan. As indicated in Figure 2,
> as
> > China’s FX reserves have risen rapidly, so
> has
> > its holdings of U.S. securities."
>
> This is a fact. But it is also highly irrelevant,
> meaningless, but makes for a good sound bite or
> way to scare uninitiated fools and partisan
> followers.
>
> >
> >
> > "From 2002 to 2010, China’s holdings
> increased
> > by over $1 trillion, which were by far the
> largest
> > dollar increase in holdings of any country, and
>
> There you go. Don't let that little tidbit of
> info slip past you.
>
>
> > accounted for 33% of net new foreign holdings
> of
> > U.S. Treasury securities over this time. As
> > indicated in Figure 4, China’s purchases of
> new
> > Treasury securities over the past three years
> have
> > been significant, averaging about $224.2
> billion
> > per year, compared to an average annual
> increase
> > of $61.5 billion from 2002 to 2007. China’s
> > share of foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury
> > securities rose from 9.6% in 2002 to 26.1% in
> > 2010."
>
> Please note that 26.1% is the figure for Treasury
> Securities, but it is only 8% of total US public
> debt. In 2001, China owned 6% of total US Debt.
>
> Here's an interesting tidbit:
>
> The CBO has summarized the cause of change between
> its January 2001 estimate of a $5.6 trillion
> cumulative surplus between 2002 and 2011 and the
> actual $6.1 trillion cumulative deficit that
> occurred, an unfavorable "turnaround" or debt
> increase of $11.7 trillion. Tax cuts and
> slower-than-expected growth reduced revenues by
> $6.1 trillion and spending was $5.6 trillion
> higher. Of this total, the CBO attributes 72% to
> legislated tax cuts and spending increases and 27%
> to economic and technical factors. Of the latter,
> 56% occurred from 2009 to 2011.
>
> >
> > Also, these numbers likely are somewhat
> > understated since in addition to direct
> purchases
> > they also use third-party intermediaries and
> > purchase via other markets. And the numbers
> for
> > Japan and most other countries are somewhat
> over
> > stated since they include purchases by a
> variety
> > of public and private entities in those
> countries
> > versus a single party as in China's case.
>
> That is trying to obfuscate things. China is a
> command-economy. Deng Xiao on Mainstreet Beijing
> isn't buying securities. Mr. Yamamoto on
> Mainstreet Tokyo, is. They are trying to make it
> seem like China's debt ownership is understated
> and Japan's is overstate by confusing you with the
> facts.
>
> >
> > Interesting too is that China is important
> enough
> > that it is the ONLY country that, as of May
> this
> > year, is permitted to deal directly with the US
> > Treasury for securities. The rest all work
> > through various broker banks.
>
> Yes, China has their own terminal with which to
> PURCHASE treasuries directly FROM the U.S.
> Treasury Department. But what they forgot to
> mention is that China cannot SELL those treasuries
> directly back to the U.S. Treasury, because it
> doesn't work that way. They still have to sell to
> a willing buyer on the commercial market (broker
> banks). I know, it's all in the details. They
> like to leave a few out, lest you not be as
> scared.
LOL. You really are a dumb fucking asshole.
First, I don't know where you're getting the "Obama" bullshit. I said absolutely nothing about Obama or anyone else, nor was there anything even remotely partisan in my post other than to say that if you wanted an objective source, then the CRS report was a good review of the issue. Do you know what CRS is? Yeah, I thought not. lol
I got 2006 from the QUOTE in the report dumbshit. See the two little marks at the start of the paragraph that talks about the increase from 2006-2010? That's what those mean.
It's a fucking CRS report idiot. It's not some ThinkProgress or Heritage bullshit. It's also not obfuscating anything. They're not confusing me at all although you seem to be. There's a distinct difference between reporting Japan's holdings as a total versus China's given that the latter is held by a single entity which can act over those holdings as they may.
The point of my post was that total is not the best measure given that most of it has come recently and that we're relying on them being there to take up that level of our debt. And increasingly so as our debt issuances increase.
WTF are you talking about selling back to the Treasury. That doesn't even make sense. lol They don't need to sell to the Treasury. They don't need to sell at all to potentially affect markets. We do need them to keep buying. In fact, we need them and more.
Last, I'm not "scared." No place in my post did I indicate that I was "scared." If you'd pull your pinhead out of your own partisan ass for a minute and stop trying to cast everything as being against our precious leader then you might actually learn something. As it stands you're just another partisan dumbfuck pretending like they know more than they do.