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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
Uncle-Ream-Us
()
Date: October 03, 2012 08:15PM
In order to get 4 more years, II and Llyodster to STFU, I post the new Politico poll that shows Romeny up +4 in swing states. Barring a meltdown by Romney, this election is starting to become his to lose.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03/politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03/politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
Glue
()
Date: October 03, 2012 08:25PM
.
Attachments:
Attachments:
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
Towanda!
()
Date: October 03, 2012 09:35PM
Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
> /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
You really ought to take your head out of the right-wing echo chamber once in a while.
-------------------------------------------------------
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
> /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
You really ought to take your head out of the right-wing echo chamber once in a while.
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
It's dark in there
()
Date: October 03, 2012 09:49PM
Towanda! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
>
> > /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
>
> You really ought to take your head out of the
> right-wing echo chamber once in a while.
Pull your head out of your own ass. It's a Politico poll dumbshit.
If you want to question Flynn's counts of the numbers in the poll, then man up. But then that would mean that you'd have to actually read the poll versus just being told what you should think.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
>
> > /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
>
> You really ought to take your head out of the
> right-wing echo chamber once in a while.
Pull your head out of your own ass. It's a Politico poll dumbshit.
If you want to question Flynn's counts of the numbers in the poll, then man up. But then that would mean that you'd have to actually read the poll versus just being told what you should think.
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
O$3
()
Date: October 03, 2012 09:52PM
Goddammit Reamus, I want to take a power drill to your head to relieve some of the pressure on your brain.
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
Young Curmudgeon
()
Date: October 03, 2012 10:45PM
Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In order to get 4 more years, II and Llyodster to
> STFU, I post the new Politico poll that shows
> Romeny up +4 in swing states. Barring a meltdown
> by Romney, this election is starting to become his
> to lose.
>
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
> /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
That's not true at all... it's like saying Rasmussen says Romney's up, so he'll win. It's completely illogical.
-------------------------------------------------------
> In order to get 4 more years, II and Llyodster to
> STFU, I post the new Politico poll that shows
> Romeny up +4 in swing states. Barring a meltdown
> by Romney, this election is starting to become his
> to lose.
>
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
> /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
That's not true at all... it's like saying Rasmussen says Romney's up, so he'll win. It's completely illogical.
Re: Swinging to Romney
Posted by:
Real Deal
()
Date: October 03, 2012 10:59PM
Young Curmudgeon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > In order to get 4 more years, II and Llyodster
> to
> > STFU, I post the new Politico poll that shows
> > Romeny up +4 in swing states. Barring a
> meltdown
> > by Romney, this election is starting to become
> his
> > to lose.
> >
> >
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
>
> > /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
>
> That's not true at all... it's like saying
> Rasmussen says Romney's up, so he'll win. It's
> completely illogical.
The margins in the polls are narrowing and, unless something unforeseen happens, will continue to do so.
The undecided swing vote, again assuming nothing unforeseen happens, will go mostly to the challenger. That's relatively smaller this year than in some past, but it's still around 5% or so. Split that about 1:3 and you know what kind of buffer Obama needs in terms of a percentage difference in the polls.
Here's how it shakes out in the end... For every point under 50% Obama is as the incumbent, the probability of him winning goes down by about 20%. That is, at 49% he's likely OK. if he's going in at < 48% then it's a toss up. Less than 46% - 47% then he's likely a loser. Obviously, that's state-by-state and the results in key electoral votes are what count.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uncle-Ream-Us Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > In order to get 4 more years, II and Llyodster
> to
> > STFU, I post the new Politico poll that shows
> > Romeny up +4 in swing states. Barring a
> meltdown
> > by Romney, this election is starting to become
> his
> > to lose.
> >
> >
> http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/03
>
> > /politico-romney-up-four-in-toss-up-states
>
> That's not true at all... it's like saying
> Rasmussen says Romney's up, so he'll win. It's
> completely illogical.
The margins in the polls are narrowing and, unless something unforeseen happens, will continue to do so.
The undecided swing vote, again assuming nothing unforeseen happens, will go mostly to the challenger. That's relatively smaller this year than in some past, but it's still around 5% or so. Split that about 1:3 and you know what kind of buffer Obama needs in terms of a percentage difference in the polls.
Here's how it shakes out in the end... For every point under 50% Obama is as the incumbent, the probability of him winning goes down by about 20%. That is, at 49% he's likely OK. if he's going in at < 48% then it's a toss up. Less than 46% - 47% then he's likely a loser. Obviously, that's state-by-state and the results in key electoral votes are what count.