Gerry Connolly Unlikely in 2012

Posted by: How Times Change ()

Date: February 11, 2012 05:41PM

(edited for space and clarity)

For Gerald Connolly, encore of tight 2010 race looks unlikely

By Ben Pershing, Saturday, February 11, 11:10 AM

Two years ago, Rep. Gerald Connolly’s reelection race proved to be one of the hottest in the country, as the Northern Virginia Democrat held onto his seat by fewer than 1,000 votes.

History does not look likely to repeat itself in 2012.

The two Republicans vying to face Connolly this time around are strong candidates who will be able to keep up with the incumbent in the fundraising department. And the new congressional map of Virginia awaiting federal approval would not provide enough Democratic voters to the Fairfax-based district to overcome the independents expected to switch sides.

“It’s a couple of fresh new faces taking on a self-proclaimed entrenched incumbent with 2012 looking like a really strong Republican year,” said Mike Russell, a public policy professor at George Mason University.

Those odds are certainly encouraging to retired Army Col. Chris Perkins and traffic engineer Ken Vaughn, who are making plays for the seat in 2012. Both men have the ability to bring as much firepower to the table as the 2010 Republican candidates — Pat Herrity, a member of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors with deep political roots in the district, and Keith Fimian, a wealthy businessman with a demonstrated ability to raise campaign cash.

With his military background and an initial burst of strong fundraising upon entering the race last year, Perkins would appear to currently be the more attractive candidate to the Virginia Republican establishment.

Perkins ended 2011 with over $47,000 in his campaign bank account, even though the race had barely begun. Vaughn, who has been active in Northern Virginia’s rising conservative movement, was in slightly better shape, with $52,000 in the bank. Connolly, meanwhile, had $732,000 left over from the rewards he earned from supporting unions and Nancy Pelosi on Obamacare and other liberal issues.

In separate interviews, both Republicans confirmed that they could compete financially.

“I don’t think I’m going to have a problem raising the requisite amount to take Connolly on in a real battle,” Perkins said.

Vaughn, for his part, said many Republican donors were “waiting for the nominee to be chosen and then they’ll come and support them. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines out there.”

Either Vaughn or Perkins will reap a windfall once the Republican nominee is determined.

The Democrats are counting on delaying the Republican primary as long as they can. President Obama's Department of Justice is withholding approval of the state’s congressional map, citing authority to do so under the Voting Rights Act. With the primary currently set for June 12 and the filing deadline March 29, the state House reluctantly passed a bill Wednesday that would move the primary to Aug. 21 if the plan does not get federal approval by March 20.

The new map subtracts a bit of Republican-leaning Prince William County turf from Connolly’s district and adds some Democratic-leaning territory along the Dulles Toll Road, including Herndon and Reston. Yet independent-minded central Fairfax remains untouched.

Several studies and polls show Virginia’s 11th district on a list Congressional seats that are “in play” in November, noting that it was held by a moderate Republican, Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, for more than a decade and played host to such a tight race in 2010.

And unlike in 2010, when Democratic turnout was supportive in the non-presidential year, President Obama will be atop the ballot in November which may keep discouraged members of his party from the polls.

Vaughn’s campaign message puts a heavy emphasis on addressing the growing national debt. As an engineer who advises state and local governments on using technology to solve traffic problems, Vaughn also plans to focus on transportation issues.

“The first thing I thought when I saw the new map was, ‘This is a commuter district,’ ” Vaughn said, adding that it's become apparent that the plan to extend Metrorail to Dulles was “a huge boondoggle.” His statement reflects a growing consensus that Dulles rail was a commercial real estate project, not a transportation solution.

Perkins said he would highlight the importance of free markets and limited government. “My message is pretty simple: I’m going to protect the Constitution from those who disregard it if it doesn’t quite fit their agendas,” he said.

On abortion, Perkins said he was opposed to using any federal funds to pay for the procedure, but ultimately the decision “should be up to the woman, her doctor and her God.”

That position could be helpful in a general election, given the moderate lean of the district, and puts him in stark contrast with Connolly, who supports the Obama mandate that all abortions should be paid with tax money, or by employers and their health insurers.

Yet the abortion debate does not resonate in the 11th district as much as the continuing malaise over the economy, jobs, and government over-regulation, areas where the Republicans have a strongly positive agenda.

While Vaughn has sought to engage Perkins in one-on-one debates, Perkins has declined, calling primary debates “divisive” and “counterproductive to the party.”

“I’m running against Connolly and I’ve said that from the beginning,” Perkins said.

In an election year where "Anyone but Obama" is becoming the common theme, Connolly will soon have to decide whether or not to distance himself from the President and the Democratic party hierarchy that provides the majority of his campaign funding. The wrong choice could send him into early retirement.

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