uyrfuyfuyfif Wrote:
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> certainly understandable Wrote:
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> -----
> > fhgfjhgfkf Wrote:
> >
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>
> > -----
> > > yfguv Wrote:
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > > -----
> > > > American Model Wrote:
> > > >
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > >
> > > > -----
> > > > > lets figure this out together Wrote:
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > > -----
> > > > > >
> > > > > > You seem to have a very specific
> > complaint
> > > -
> > > > > that
> > > > > > predictive abilities apropos hurricanes
> > > > 'suck.'
> > > > >
> > > > > > Again the question remains 'compared to
> > > > what?'
> > > > > > Obviously they are far better than even
> > 20
> > > > > years
> > > > > > ago and Im sure you would agree that
> > degree
> > > > of
> > > > > > improvement has saved countless lives.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > What is the source of your 'consensus'
> > map
> > > I
> > > > > would
> > > > > > like to better understand what it is
> > before
> > > I
> > > > > > comment further on your assessment.
> When
> > > was
> > > > > this
> > > > > > map drawn (e.g. how far out from the
> > storm
> > > > > > landing?). It seems to me they had an
> > > > > excellent
> > > > > > prediction where the storm would land
> 48
> > > > hours
> > > > > > before landfall.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Anyway thank you for your opinion and
> in
> > > > > advance
> > > > > > for the source.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Compared to reality.
> > > > >
> > > > > The image is Accuweather's aggregation of
> > the
> > > > > standard predictive models used from
> about
> > a
> > > > week
> > > > > to a little less out. You don't have to
> > rely
> > > > on
> > > > > that specifically. You can go back and
> > find
> > > > the
> > > > > same in numerous other sources since all
> > rely
> > > > on
> > > > > the same set of models. It reflects the
> > > > > "consensus" of our best experts and best
> > > models
> > > > at
> > > > > the time. The two most prominent within
> > that
> > > > > being way off. e.g.:
> > > > >
> > > > > "Wilmoth said the American model shows
> the
> > > > storm
> > > > > moving in toward the South Carolina and
> > North
> > > > > Carolina coasts while the European model
> > > keeps
> > > > the
> > > > > storm entirely offshore."
> > > > >
> > > > > That's why NC and SC declared a state of
> > > > emergency
> > > > > ~5 days ago and why McAuliffe did 3 days
> > ago
> > > > still
> > > > > with the expectation that it would move
> up
> > > the
> > > > > east coast.
> > > > >
> > > > > No, 48 hours out they were still saying
> up
> > > the
> > > > > east coast to middle of the state
> depending
> > > on
> > > > > exactly when you want to count. Of
> course
> > > > results
> > > > > improve as things become more certain. lol
>
> > > > > Everyone ends up with a perfect model as
> > they
> > > > > adjust to reflect reality along the way.
> > > That
> > > > > tells you nothing about their original
> > > > predictive
> > > > > value.
> > > >
> > > > Thank you for your reply. It would be
> great
> > if
> > > we
> > > > knew the exact track the minute the storm
> > formed
> > > -
> > > > perhaps that day will come in the future!
> A
> > > week
> > > > out is still well out of our ability to
> > predict
> > > a
> > > > track with great precision, agreed on that.
>
> > > > Perhaps I am an optimist seeing that not
> long
> > > ago
> > > > 2-3 day forecasts were the standard. I
> think
> > > its
> > > > fair to say that the predictive value of
> this
> > > > forecast saved many lives in FL this
> weekend.
> >
> > > >
> > > > The following is from NOAA
> > > >
> > > >
Routine hurricane track forecasts for
> the
> > > > Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of
> > > > Mexico, and Caribbean Sea) began in 1954
> and
> > > could
> > > > only provide information one day into the
> > > future.
> > > > Forecasts were expanded to provide two days
> > > > advance notice in 1961 and three days in
> > 1964.
> > > > Three days remained the standard for
> advance
> > > > hurricane forecasts through 2002.
> > > >
> > > > In 2003, boosted by the reliability of
> > computer
> > > > models, NOAA began issuing forecasts out to
> > > five
> > > > days in advance. In addition to helping the
> > > public
> > > > and local officials prepare for impending
> > > > hurricane landfalls, this recent forecast
> > > > extension helps the U.S. Navy ensure ships
> > are
> > > > safely removed from a storm’s path.
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
https://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/magazine/deva
>
> >
> > >
> > > > st_hurricane/welcome.html#times
> > >
> > >
> > > Great, but still not logical.
> > >
> > > Better GUESSING than 100 years ago? Sure.
> > >
> > > We can NOT predict the path of a hurricane
> even
> > 1
> > > day out - proven by Irma.
> > >
> > > One of my best friends is in NOAA and I still
> > can
> > > see that sometimes they have no fucking idea
> > where
> > > a storm is headed AT ALL.
> > >
> > > /thread
> >
> > huh, whats not 'logical' - I agree with you we
> > cannot predict with much accuracy a week out and
> I
> > share with you the hope we can some day do so
> with
> > much accuracy. I also stated that improvements
> > over the last 20-100 years have saved lives -
> that
> > is a simple fact not argument logical or not.
> >
> > I provided some background on the history of
> > predicting hurricanes for those interested.
> >
> > You seem frustrated by the current limitations
> in
> > prediction - perhaps you have personal
> experience
> > with hurricanes and the shortcomings of current
> > meteorological capabilities. Certainly
> > understandable if you have been through this
> kind
> > of event...
>
>
> nope
>
> just pointing out, again, that the OP is correct
> any way you slice it
>
> pay close attention to the title "hurricane track
> prediction" - we can not do that even 1 day out -
> even hourly if you are honest
>
> so my point is that all this back and forth
> between posters is fucking stupid
>
> OP is right
Oh - didnt realize you were the OP - complete retard.