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Analysis of Overcrowding and Potentia
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Date: May 28, 2008 01:06PM
South County Secondary School
Analysis of Overcrowding and Potential Solutions
May 23, 2008
Executive Summary
The South County Secondary School (SCSS) is operating on a 9-period day as a means to manage its overcrowding. While designed to be a high school with a capacity of 2,500 students, it has operated since it opened in 2005 as a secondary school. Its current enrollment is approximately 2,960 students. It is necessary to provide relief to the school either by enhancing capacity or reducing enrollment, or some combination thereof. This analysis and staff recommendation are based upon the need to provide relief as quickly as possible to the overcrowding at SCSS.
Staff recognizes that circumstances can change in the future. We don’t know if the budget challenges facing the Board of Supervisors will result in their reducing future cash flow for capital projects. We don’t know the extent that changes such as BRAC might have on student enrollments in this part of the county. We need to find solutions to the known overcrowding at SCSS while maintaining flexibility to address future conditions.
This analysis examines current and future enrollment at SCSS and explores the options that might be available to address its overcrowding. Solution options considered were:
Boundary changes
Build a new middle school to serve this area
Build an addition to the existing school
Relocate programs
To supplement and illustrate this analysis, a map entitled ‘South County Student Yield Analysis’ and the details of the revised school capacity analysis are provided in Attachments 1 and 2, respectively.
Staff Recommendation
Based upon the fact that we do not project significant increases in enrollment at SCSS, we recommend an addition to the existing school. This option is less expensive than building a new middle school and provides sufficient capacity to meet the enrollment needs of the school. Assuming cooperation from the county and the absence of unusual circumstances, we believe the addition can be built in time for the opening of the 2010-2011 school year.
If future enrollments exceed projections, it would be possible to consider building the middle school. For this reason, the middle school should remain in the capital improvement program. Over the next several years as we monitor student enrollments in this part of the county, we should examine creative means by which to construct the middle school should it be justified. Such creative strategies might include PPEA’s or examination of the school system’s current capital plans and assets. School closings, mergers, and expansions, should all be part of our considerations if such actions are supported by data and could benefit our capital program.
Statement of Condition
South County Secondary School (SCSS) has capacity to accommodate 800 middle and 1,700 high school students. With the opening of SCSS in fall 2005, enrollment for the middle school was 1,083 students and for the high school was 1,422 students for a total enrollment of 2,505. The fall 2006 enrollment was at 1,049 for the middle school and increased to 1,978 for high school for a total enrollment of 3,027. Fall 2007 enrollment for the middle school has dropped back to 885 students and increased to 2,044 students for the high school for a total enrollment of 2,929. The current projections for the combined middle and high school membership for the next five years range between 2,800 -2,900 students with the middle school averaging generally around 900 and the high school averaging around 1,950. These projections consider the remaining development in the pipeline (site plan/subdivision plan approved and/or under construction) that would normally be included within the 5-year CIP window. It should be noted that the projections made in 2005 and 2006 for the out-years at SCSS ranged from 3,200 to 3,400. The current projections have been adjusted to reflect the recent enrollment trends and the boundary adjustment between Hayfield Secondary School and SCSS implemented at the beginning of 2007.
Based upon enrollment projections and the recently completed capacity analysis of this school, SCSS will remain approximately 350 – 500 students above current capacity. Absent remedial action, the school will have to continue to operate on a 9-period day. This level of overcrowding at SCSS cannot be sustained and must be addressed so that the school can return from a 9-period day to a normal 7-period schedule for students and staff.
Projections for the surrounding schools anticipate that student populations will likely remain fairly stable or experience slight increases. The table below compares the current enrollments and near term projections for SCSS.
2007-08 2008-09 2008-09 2012-13
School Enrollments* Fall Projection Spring Update Forecast
South County HS 2031 2077 2075 1892
South County MS 887 891 899 924
*Enrollments on 03/31/2008
Projected and Actual Student Yield in the SCSS Attendance Area
Staff analysis of student yields for the SCSS attendance area reveals that the total number of students is higher than what would be anticipated using the current countywide student yield ratios by housing type. Using available dwelling unit information from the county, there are a total of 9,977 residential units in the SCSS attendance area which includes approximately 6,000 single family units, 3,000 townhouses, 700 multi-family units, and 150 low-rise and duplex units. The following table provides a comparison of the student yield ratios by housing type for the SCSS attendance area and the average countywide student yield ratios by unit type.
Student Yield Ratio Single Family Townhouses Low-rise Duplex Multi-family Garden
Countywide .241 .158 .084 .084 .084
SCSS .289 .288 .292 .298 .287
While the countywide student yield ratios are generally used only in formulating development impacts associated with new residential rezonings, it is clear that the SCSS attendance area has yielded more students from all housing types but has particularly high yields from town homes and the more dense multi-family housing developments than what might be anticipated by the countywide averages. The residential developments which have impacted the SCSS attendance more than any other are the Laurel Hill and Laurel Highlands developments, which were rezoned for higher residential density in 2001.
The chart below is intended to highlight the projected student yield at the time of the rezoning approval in 2001 and the present student count for the 2007-2008 school year for these two developments. As noted in the chart, the projected student yield and the actual student yield for Laurel Highlands are similar to what was projected in 2001 to the present day. Laurel Hill, on the other hand, features more single family detached units, which in the past, has had a greater student yield, and which could account for the rise in actual student yield over what was projected in 2001. Both developments have ultimately yielded significantly more middle and high school students than what was calculated at the time of rezoning.
Total DU approved Projected student yield
2001 Actual student count 2007
Laurel Hill 732 total -
582 SFD, 150 SFA 418 total
263 ES, 47 MS, 108 HS 584 total - 292 ES, 95 MS, 197 HS
Laurel Highlands 539 total -
144 SFD, 106 SFA, 289 MF 122 total (does not include MF) - 81ES,
15 MS, 35 HS 129 total- 61 ES, 28 MS, 40 HS
It should be noted that for Laurel Highlands, the projected student count and actual student count does not include multi-family units since those have not yet been constructed.
Anticipated Residential Growth
It is anticipated that some growth will continue within the SCSS boundary. The approved 289 mid-rise units remain to be constructed and occupied in Laurel Highlands and may yield approximately 3 middle and 7 high school students, although the actual yields may be higher consistent with other developments in the SCSS attendance area. However, the majority of remaining land area within the SCSS attendance area is zoned and planned for very low residential densities. Most of the residential development currently pending is by-right development that was approved within the last couple of years but has not yet been developed. By-right developments do not need special zoning approval and are permitted so long as they meet all Zoning Ordinance and county regulations. The following chart summarizes the status of residential development in the SCSS boundary area and the potential yield of approximately 76 additional middle and high school students. There are no pending residential rezoning applications within this attendance area.
Tax Map Status # / housing type Total Student yield ES MS HS
106-1 ((1)) 15 plan pending 8 single family 4 2 1 1
106-1 ((1)) 23A & 47A plan approved - not constructed 14 single family 6 3 1 2
106-2 ((1)) 49 & 50 plan pending 6 single family 2 1 0 1
106-3 ((7)) 1-6 & 11-14 plan approved - not constructed 45 single family 22 11 3 8
106-4 ((1)) 52D plan approved - not constructed 14 single family 6 3 1 2
106-3 ((1)) 4A 106-4 ((1)) 26 Sect. 1- plan approved, not constructed; Sect. 2 - plan pending Sect 1-64 single family Sect 2-32 single family Total-96 47 23 7 17
106-4 ((1)) 52B plan approved - not constructed 16 single family 8 4 1 3
106-4 ((8)) 1-10 plan approved - not constructed 10 single family 5 2 1 2
Rezoning 107-2 ((12)) G RZ approved -most SFA constructed, no MF constructed 94 town home 293 multi-family 56 18 / 13 5 / 3 10 / 7
Total 209 Single family 94 Town home 293 Multi-family 156 80 23 53
BRAC (Base Realignment and Closures)
The county has responded to the impending relocation of jobs to Ft. Belvoir by initiating a re-planning process that could add some additional residential development potential within the SCSS attendance area. Of the 35 BRAC Plan Amendment nominations submitted, two are within the SCSS boundary:
PC 2008-037 proposes an option for mixed-use development with up to 1,072 multi-family high-rise units - total of 84 students (46 ES, 12 MS, 26 HS).
PC 2008-036 proposes an option for mixed-use development with up to 804 units - total of 63 students (35 ES, 9 MS, 19 HS).
If approved, these two BRAC nominations represent potential new student yields since both areas are undeveloped and do not currently permit residential development. Based on the current proposals, approximately 66 students may be anticipated at such future time as the Comprehensive Plan is amended, rezoning and site plan applications approved, and construction and occupancy commences. Continued planning and development of Laurel Hill adaptive re-use area could also add more residential development potential.
Student Growth Summary
It should be noted that these estimated student yields are based on county-wide averages. The potential new growth is unlike most of the existing developments that make up the housing stock in the SCSS attendance area. New development is likely to be either higher urban densities associated with BRAC or smaller in-fill developments and subdivisions. While these new developments may yield more students than the countywide averages, it is less likely that the higher ratios associated with Laurel Hill, Laurel Highlands, or the larger SCSS attendance area would be duplicated.
The majority of the potential residential growth outlined above would likely not begin construction and/or be occupied for another five or more years. BRAC Plan Amendments are not scheduled for Board of Supervisors public hearings until 2009 and, if approved, would be subject to the rezoning and site plan process which can take up to several years. The depressed housing market has resulted in little movement for by-right in-fill or proffered development. While the potential for growth is not insignificant, it is only a small part of what will have the most influence over the future growth or decline in membership for SCSS. It would not be appropriate to simply add the potential student yield based on future development into the current student population mix which is the foundation for student projections until these projects are near completion.
To better understand the future membership for SCSS, greater consideration of change within the feeder schools is needed. SCSS serves multiple feeder elementary schools. Currently, Halley, Silverbrook, and Newington Forest feed 100 percent of their students into SCSS; Lorton Station and Gunston feed 26 percent and 21 percent of their students, respectively, to SCSS. Silverbrook is the largest feeder to SCSS with an estimated 190 6th graders feeding into 7th grade for 2008 followed by 90 students from Newington Forest and 76 from Halley. Lorton Station will feed 22 students (26 percent of 84 in 6th grade class) and Gunston, 17 students (21 percent of 83 in 6th grade class). A review of the lower grades feeding into SCSS over the next five years does not show any large numbers of students in any specific grade level(s).
The table below provides the projected enrollments by class for the South County Middle feeder schools for the 2008-09 school year. Note that the 6th grade classes which will feed to South County Middle 7th grade in the 2009-10 school year are generally smaller than the current feeder classes with the exception of Halley which is projected to feed 83 students in 2 years. Silverbrook, which will feed 190 this fall, is projected to feed 180 the following year. Newington Forest will send 90 students this fall to South County Middle and is projected to send 71 the following year. Lorton Station and Gunston which only feed a small percentage of the 7th grade, also show smaller feeder classes for 2009-10 school year.
Feeder Schools to South County Middle
SCHOOL KG 1 2 3 4 5 6
Halley 80 78 101 72 76 87 83
Silverbrook 129 145 165 168 170 169 180
Newington Forest 92 87 86 87 89 62 71
Gunston 12 12 12 11 11 11 12
Lorton Station 19 19 17 14 15 14 14
Totals 332 341 382 352 361 343 360
The enrollment numbers and feeder percentages listed on the
table above are based on Spring Update for School year 2008-09
Projections for the next five years at Silverbrook indicate moderate growth for the next three years followed by decline. Silverbrook is a maturing residential area that has experienced a growth in students in recent years. That growth may begin to diminish slightly in the next five years as the younger, larger groups are followed by slightly smaller cohorts.
Projections at Halley show continued strong growth over the next five years. Halley has experienced growth in both Asian and Hispanic populations, which as a group have contributed to the increases in FCPS in recent years and may for the next several years, as well.
Projections for the next five years at Newington Forest indicate slight growth in the next 2-3 years and then stable, flat enrollments. Newington Forest is also a maturing residential area with a diverse population. In recent years the area has experienced a growth in Hispanic and Black populations both which may contribute to moderate growth in the near term.
The current residential real estate climate and economic conditions are vastly different from the conditions that existed when Laurel Hill and Laurel Highlands were being planned, rezoned, constructed, and occupied. The impact of the changes in the base feeder schools will be the primary factor influencing the future class sizes for SCSS. Staff has modeled the projections based on class cohort survival rates and account for new development and school boundary changes. What remains speculative are the continued impacts of demographic changes, the continued impact of increased energy costs, the impacts of immigration policies of neighboring counties, and the impact of new job opportunities related to BRAC, which could all influence individual family decisions to move into the area.
These factors, among others, could result in higher than anticipated student yields for the future multi-family units in Laurel Highlands and greater that average student yields from both townhouse and multi-family housing types. However, over time, it is more likely that the current higher yields for SCSS overall will tend to move toward the countywide averages for the various housing types.
In light of the feeder school analysis above, we project an overall stable school population with moderate growth where noted during the next five years. There is nothing definitive that would suggest substantive increases within SCSS after that time.
Potential Solutions
There are three possible solutions to the overcrowding were considered during this analysis. The purpose of this document is to consider and articulate 1) a conceptual description of each alternative, (2) the funding sources, as appropriate, that support each alternative; and (3) an assessment of the relative viability and risks of each alternative, in both the short-term and the long-term.
The potential solutions are:
Modify existing middle, high, or secondary school boundaries.
Build an addition to the existing SCSS
Build a new middle school.
Make program assignment changes.
Modify Boundaries
One potential solution to overcrowding at SCSS is to move students from that school to one or more of the surrounding contiguous schools. Five high/secondary schools have boundaries contiguous to SCSS – Mount Vernon, Hayfield, Lake Braddock, West Springfield, and Lee. At the middle school level the contiguous boundaries are with Whitman, Hayfield, Key, Irving, and Lake Braddock.
Increases in enrollment have occurred during SY 2007 - 2008 at schools throughout the county and have impacted these specific schools. We have updated the projections for these schools for the next school year but we have not yet done so for the 5-year projections.
We just completed new capacity studies for these schools and these capacities are shown in this document. In certain cases, capacities were increased and in other cases there were decreases.
Along with other FCPS schools, SCSS’ capacity was recently evaluated using the new methodology developed by the Office of Design and Construction Services. The results of the calculation show that the school has a current program capacity of 2,573 students.
Following are the capacity situations at each of these schools that were projected for 2012-2013 as included in the 2009-2013 Capital Improvement Program, but with new capacities. The detailed calculation information is included in this document as Attachment 2.
2012-2013 2012-2013 Percent
Projected Over/(Under) Capacity
School Capacity Enrollment Capacity Utilized
Lake Braddock HS 3079 2223 -856 72.2%
West Springfield HS 2107 2097 -10 99.5%
Lee HS 2111 1745 -366 82.7%
Hayfield HS 2180 2034 -146 93.3%
Mount Vernon HS 2279 1714 -565 75.2%
Totals 11756 9813 -1943 83.5%
Lake Braddock MS 1292 1248 -44 96.6%
Irving MS 1032 1022 -10 99.0%
Key MS 1000 750 -250 75.0%
Hayfield MS 1050 1059 9 100.9%
Whitman MS 1000 1076 76 107.6%
Totals 5374 5155 -219 95.9%
Grand Totals 17130 14968 -2162 87.4%
Even considering that enrollment projections can never be perfectly accurate, it would appear that sufficient capacity, slightly more than 1900 seats, exists to solve the overcrowding at SCSS. However, a more detailed examination suggests that might not be easy to accomplish. For example, a significant portion of the available capacity is at Mount Vernon High School. Its feeder middle school, Whitman, is projected to be over-capacity. This exact circumstance also is true at Lake Braddock Secondary School. This means it will be very difficult to take advantage of the high school capacities at Mount Vernon and Lake Braddock due to the lack of capacity at their feeder middle schools.
The one exception is Key Middle School and Lee High School that together are projected to have over 600 available seats. We are not recommending using the capacities at these schools to address the needs of SCSS unless other options to solve the overcrowding are determined to not be viable. First, these communities have never been discussed as potential solutions to SCSS overcrowding. Before considering them, it would be appropriate to notify the community and to give sufficient time for discussion and community feedback. Second, the capacities at Lee High School and Key Middle School might be needed in the future to provide relief to West Springfield High School and Irving Middle School should the enrollments at those schools exceed projections.
There is potential to provide some relief to SCSS at Lake Braddock but we would be reluctant to recommend moving 500 students into that school as its high school enrollment then would approach 2800 students.
What this data suggests is that while it would be difficult to take advantage of available capacity in surrounding schools to help address capacity issues at South County, it is also true that we don’t need to build new capacity within the South County attendance area to help meet capacity/enrollment challenges at surrounding schools.
Build a New Middle School
One potential solution is to build a new middle school and to have the current school become a high school. There are several alternative strategies that could be used for a middle school. We own a 35-acre site designated for a middle school. This site is not contiguous to the current secondary school site. Because of the site’s topography and the presence of designated wetlands, developing this site as a middle school does pose certain challenges. We believe we can build a middle school on this site for approximately $53 million and have it ready to open in 2011 or 2012. Because of the presence of wetlands and uncertain soil conditions, the site permit process may take longer than typically is the case and the project may experience unanticipated cost increases to deal with these issues.
We have explored the possibility of exchanging land with the Park Authority. The Park Authority owns the property that is located between the middle school site and the current secondary school. Building a middle school on this site would allow the school system to use the existing fields on the secondary school site thus reducing the scope of the middle school project and reducing overall costs. It also means that we would require fewer acres on which to build the school and associated infrastructure. Preliminary discussions with Park Authority staff did not suggest interest in such a land exchange.
If the School Board determines that it wants a middle school built, and if the primary purpose of the school is to provide needed relief to the current overcrowding at SCSS, staff recommends that the school be built on our current site. This approach avoids the potential delays that could be experienced if we try to work a land exchange with the Park Authority either as a part of or separate from a public-private partnership strategy.
Alternative 1 – Bridge Financing. Discussions with financing experts have indicated that there are strategies by which the School Board could build a middle school in the near future but not actually incur the costs for several years. Construction of the middle school currently shows in the capital program’s cash flow as beginning in FY 2017. It would be difficult to develop a financing bridge plan to that fiscal year but it is possible to FY 2014. Moving the cost of the middle school project to FY 2014 would have an impact on renovation projects that would occur within that time period. The specific schools are not yet known but will undoubtedly include those schools rated with the greatest renovation needs as a part of the current renovation queue study. A bridge financing plan would require approval by the Board of Supervisors.
Alternative 2 – PPEA’s . Another means to creatively finance the middle school is to consider public-private partnerships (PPEA’s). As of the end of April 2008, one PPEA has been submitted to Fairfax County and there are indications that another will be submitted in the near future. It is not known if these proposals are viable but they do offer the potential to generate at least $20 million towards the cost of the middle school. The primary concern with relying upon PPEA’s is that is will take a great deal of time and effort to consider each proposal and the ultimate outcomes are uncertain. Considering the overcrowding relief needed by SCSS, it does not appear reasonable to rely upon a process that might not be successful.
Key Issue – Bridge Financing. Staff notes that we have misgivings about the use of bridge financing as a means to build now and pay later. First, doing so could create an expectation in other communities that the same scenario should be used to accelerate their capital projects. Second, it presumes that funds will be available in the future when payments need to begin. Considering the current budget problems, it is possible that the school system could experience reductions in capital funding in future years. If this were to occur, prior commitments through bridge financing could place the school system in a very difficult situation.
Build an Addition to the Existing Secondary School
South County Secondary School is the same basic design as Westfield High School. Both schools were designed to allow for the addition of a classroom wing. Such a wing was added to Westfield to increase that school’s capacity and it can also be done at South County. Assuming that the addition provided capacity for 625 students, the revised total school’s capacity would be 3,198. Of this total, there would be approximately 1,000 middle school seats and 2,200 high school seats which would provide a significant buffer should enrollments substantially exceed projections.
An addition to South County can be designed to address the needs of a secondary versus a high school, i.e., some level of separate of middle and high school students. To this end, interior modifications to certain existing spaces may be required.
Because it is an existing design that was completed at Westfield, we believe that we could launch the project and complete it successfully in about 24 - 26 months. This means that if we were to begin the project in summer 2008, the addition should be ready for the 2010 – 2011 school year.
The approximately 55,000 square foot addition could accommodate five complete middle school teams (625 students team taught). Since the high school then would be about 500 under capacity, the additional unused high school space would accommodate the other middle school teams. We would examine the ability to locate these teams proximate to the new addition and to provide as much separation from the high school areas as possible.
The addition would contain five of the following:
Science
Math
Social Studies
English
It would also contain:
(2) multi-purpose rooms
Tech Tools Lab
Foreign Language Classroom
We estimate the project cost to be approximately $12 – 13 million based upon recent bids.
Program Relocations
Because SCSS does not bridge students to the school from other schools, there are no program adjustments that can be made that would reduce overcrowding at SCSS. We did consider the potential to create space at Lake Braddock by relocating some or all of the middle school GT program at that school. This option was not found feasible as the sending schools – Robinson, South County, and Irving Middle Schools all lack space for the return of their GT students.
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