jujfe Wrote:
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> EFJE87 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > At the current rate, we'll be over 75,000 in
> less
> > than 10 days. Why do you think that's not
> going
> > to happen. I'll check back here with you around
> > May 8.
>
>
> IHME model projections. Which to date have
> consistently overestimated the numbers by a lot.
>
>
>
Quote
> COVID-19 estimation updates
>
> COVID-19: What’s New for April 27, 2020
>
> Main updates on IHME COVID-19 predictions since
> April 22, 2020
>
> MORE DATA, IMPROVED MODELS, BETTER ESTIMATES
>
>
> A focus on the US
>
> Based on the latest available data, the COVID-19
> epidemic’s first wave could cause 74,073
> cumulative deaths (estimate range 56,563 to
> 130,666) in the US. The total from today’s
> release is higher than average predictions
> published on April 22 (67,641, with an estimate
> range of 48,058 to 123,157), though the
> uncertainty intervals still overlap considerably.
>
>
> 500,000 is nonsense. With new capture of much
> greater infection rates, the fatality rates have
> gone down from like ~5% to more like ~0.05%
So with 60k dead, according to your figures, over 120 million Americans already have/had it? Let me know if you need help with the math.