Donald Trump’s election campaign in 2016 ripped up the rule book on how to win the Presidency and he has been challenging convention ever since. We are now just 18 months away from the next election, which has the potential to be even more contentious and unpredictable than the last. Already, over a dozen different candidates have announced their intention to run as a Presidential contender. This gives rise to a very broad range of potential political and economic outcomes, but within this report we identify the four key scenarios.
Scenario 1: United States of Trump
* President Trump is re-elected. He retrenches his views on international trade and multilateral institutions.
* Renewed push for infrastructure spending, reliant on significant state financing and expanded use of localised energy policies to support fossil fuels.
* Healthcare policy would remain largely unchanged, while regulation of technology firms would rely on congressional action.
Scenario 2: A Republican phoenix
* A non-Trump Republican wins, likely leading to another round of tax legislation, along with establishing protections for privacy.
* The leadership would re-engage with international institutions and take a less antagonistic stance towards external trade relationships.
* Fiscal conservatism would likely return to the forefront in national and congressional politics, making fiscally expansive budgets unlikely.
Scenario 3: A Democrat consensus builder
* A centrist Democrat wins. Increased federal spending on both infrastructure and healthcare, as well as increased efforts to establish a national single payer service.
* Climate change would emerge as a key political agenda, with government support for renewable energies increasing significantly.
* Technology companies would face increased regulatory oversight.
Scenario 4: A New New Deal
* A populist Democrat is elected. Significant fiscal expansion fuelled by increased corporate tax rates, which includes both support for environmental projects (funding a ‘Green New Deal’) as well as redistributive spending.
* Large technology companies subjected to anti-trust action.
* Trade protectionism as seen under President Trump to continue, albeit with
strong support for international agreements on climate change.
https://youtu.be/AFsmrfwGIv4
https://youtu.be/XkMo83xRhPM
https://youtu.be/wP5wFxW-N_4
Attachments: