One point worth making. Of the 18-20% of conservatives that Trump has lost (relative to Bush/Romney), it appears that roughly one third of them have gone to outright voting for Clinton, and two thirds to some third option or undecided.
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/08/01/cbs-poll-trumps-alienation-conservatives-reason-hes-behind/
TRUMP IS NOT A REPUBLICAN!