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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Odds People will die on SpaceX Moon Launch?
Posted by:
Elon Musk
()
Date: February 28, 2017 08:57AM
So Elon Musk says two people will fly around the moon in 2018 on a SpaceX rocket. Keep in mind that SpaceX has never flown an unmanned mission around the moon or a manned mission into space at all. They also have about a 70% success rate at launch. Seems like a balls-deep gamble by Musk that could destroy SpaceX if it fails.
Re: Odds People will die on SpaceX Moon Launch?
Posted by:
"Go Baby,Go"
()
Date: February 28, 2017 11:17AM
Taking risks is as American as Apple Pie. Life is a risk if you're doing it right. You must be a Conservative.
Re: Odds People will die on SpaceX Moon Launch?
Posted by:
FUGd6
()
Date: February 28, 2017 01:59PM
Elon Musk Wrote:
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> So Elon Musk says two people will fly around the
> moon in 2018 on a SpaceX rocket. Keep in mind that
> SpaceX has never flown an unmanned mission around
> the moon or a manned mission into space at all.
> They also have about a 70% success rate at launch.
> Seems like a balls-deep gamble by Musk that could
> destroy SpaceX if it fails.
Falcon 9s have had 30 launches with one in-flight failure. There was also one pre-flight explosion. That's a lot better than 70%. The fact that they've never flown a manned mission does not in itself make the process riskier. Much of the hardware has been well tested.
They've not yet launched a Falcon Heavy, which is needed for the translunar flight, but by the time of the manned mission it will probably have flown 4-5 times.
The riskiest part of the mission is launch, and they'll have an escape system that probably reduces the risk of death at launch to 10% or so in the event of launch failure for a total risk of maybe 1%. Flight to the moon and back is of relatively low risk. Re-entry carries risk but that technology is old and reliable. There hasn't been a capsule reentry failure with loss of life since Soyuz 11 in 1971.
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> So Elon Musk says two people will fly around the
> moon in 2018 on a SpaceX rocket. Keep in mind that
> SpaceX has never flown an unmanned mission around
> the moon or a manned mission into space at all.
> They also have about a 70% success rate at launch.
> Seems like a balls-deep gamble by Musk that could
> destroy SpaceX if it fails.
Falcon 9s have had 30 launches with one in-flight failure. There was also one pre-flight explosion. That's a lot better than 70%. The fact that they've never flown a manned mission does not in itself make the process riskier. Much of the hardware has been well tested.
They've not yet launched a Falcon Heavy, which is needed for the translunar flight, but by the time of the manned mission it will probably have flown 4-5 times.
The riskiest part of the mission is launch, and they'll have an escape system that probably reduces the risk of death at launch to 10% or so in the event of launch failure for a total risk of maybe 1%. Flight to the moon and back is of relatively low risk. Re-entry carries risk but that technology is old and reliable. There hasn't been a capsule reentry failure with loss of life since Soyuz 11 in 1971.