Steelmakers Brace for Weak Demand
Strength From Early 2010 Is Sapped by Weak Demand, High Costs
By ROBERT GUY MATTHEWS
After a strong start to the year, the world's biggest steelmakers lost ground in the third quarter and raised caution flags for the rest of the year, expecting to be hit by uneven demand, falling prices and high raw-material costs.
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Arcelor CEO Lakshmi Mittal said customers are working through inventories instead of ordering steel. Above, an Arcelor plant in Germany last year.
Some steelmakers on Tuesday posted third-quarter losses, while others fell off from the second quarter. And nearly all expect the final three months of the year to be worse as demand softens in major markets, such as autos and construction.
"Consumer confidence has deteriorated," ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Lakshmi Mittal said in an interview. "We are seeing a lot of austerity measures."
Weaker demand has prompted Arcelor—the world's No. 1 steelmaker by output—and some of its rivals to rescind price increases as a way to retain market share. That has decreased steelmakers' ability to recoup rising costs for raw materials, such as iron ore and coal, eroding earnings. Lower production also is paring profits.
Luxembourg-based Arcelor on Tuesday reported that third-quarter profit rose 48% to $1.35 billion from 910 million a year earlier. Sales increased 30% to $21.04 billion. But profit tumbled 21% from the second quarter, while sales fell 2.8%.
Mr. Mittal said potential customers world-wide are working through some of their inventories, slowing orders for steel.
Arcelor wasn't the only steelmaker trending lower from the second quarter. Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp. narrowed its third-quarter loss to $51 million, or 35 cents a share, from $303 million, $2.11 a share, a year earlier. But the latest loss was deeper than the $25 million figure reported for the second quarter. "All three of our segments had lower shipments and production as activity in most of our markets slowed," CEO John Surma said.
Shares of AK Steel and U.S. Steel Corp. retreat after the companies post disappointing third-quarter results. Rising costs of raw materials and softer demand are weighing. MarketWatch's Ashley Lau reports in San Francisco.
Meanwhile, AK Steel posted a loss of $59.2 million, or 54 cents a share, compared with a profit of $6.2 million, or six cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 51% to $1.58 billion. The West Chester, Pa., company projected an operating loss for this quarter, expecting lower shipments and prices and higher raw-material costs.
Earlier this month, South Korea's Posco, the world's third-largest steel maker, lowered its profit forecast for the year by 7%, citing high raw-material costs and weak exports.
And Nucor Corp said last week that the rest of the year would be among its most challenging, citing weak residential and commercial construction. "It is now painfully clear that the U.S. economy over the past several months entered a new period of uncertainty," said Daniel DiMicco, CEO of the Charlotte, N.C., company.
Japan's Nippon Steel Corp. on Wednesday posted a 44.2 billion yen profit for the fiscal second quarter but warned its outlook is getting cloudier amid growing uncertainty over China's steel market as well as shrinking local auto sales.
The new landscape marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when top steel executives reported rising demand, particularly for automotive steel, as well as falling customer inventories and higher steel production. The view then was that economies world-wide were recovering and that steel markets could support higher prices.
Mr. Mittal early in the year said Arcelor would seek a 10% price increase for spot business, seeking to maintain earnings by passing along Arcelor's higher costs for raw materials, such as iron ore. But the company stood down because customers were uncertain about future demand, and Arcelor didn't want to lose customers to lower-priced rivals.
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"We have said that we want to regain our market share lost in 2009," Mr. Mittal said. "In the process we realized that prices would not increase."
Mr. Mittal said his plants ran at 71% capacity in the third quarter, down from 78% in the second. The cutback isn't expected to trigger layoffs but is hurting earnings since plants get more profitable as they run at higher capacity.
"Southern Europe is slow and not in good shape. Construction is down and unemployment is not in good shape. In the U.S., we expect demand to drop 2%-3%," Mr. Mittal said.
U.S. Steel also said that lower operating rates, reduced prices and fewer orders reflect "the uncertain economic situation in North America and Europe."
In spite of the souring near-term outlook, steelmakers believe the market will be more stable in 2011. Mr. Mittal said he doesn't expect China to significantly boost exports and flood the market, which can add to price volatility. He also said he expects that raw-material prices will stabilize next year.
Write to Robert Guy Matthews at
robertguy.matthews@wsj.com