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The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
Posted by:
Georgy Mirsky (and he's right)
()
Date: August 29, 2013 09:07PM
August 29, 2013 7:39 pm
The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
By Georgy Mirsky
Even if the Assad regime crumbles, Russia will not deem Putin a loser, writes Georgy Mirsky
Every now and then one of my English-speaking colleagues asks me what Russia will do if the western powers make good on their threats and strike at Syria. My answer is: nothing. Russia does not have to do anything, it can just sit quiet. The situation is advantageous to Moscow. Our leaders will be only too happy to see the US start a new war it cannot win.
Consider the options. A land invasion is out of the question. Sustained air bombardment risks the loss of pilots, and would therefore be unacceptable for the public in the west. The likeliest avenue is missile strikes; President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will undoubtedly suffer – but Russia and Iran will be able to make up for any losses. The allies will give Mr Assad a bloody nose and that is it. Punitive strikes cannot bring about a turning point in the hostilities. Any substantial change in the correlation of forces on the ground is not feasible.
So, morally and psychologically, the Assad regime will score points, at least in the eyes of the developing world – and certainly in those of Russia. Propaganda is certain to draw parallels with the intervention in Iraq 10 years ago. It is, of course, very easy to picture the US as a global bully ever bent on inventing pretexts for aggression. Iran will be jubilant. Many people in Syria will be inclined to resist a new imperialist crusade.
Upping the ante is advantageous for Moscow. The more the western powers are involved in the conflict, the more deeply they are immersed, the more opportunities emerge for Russia to back the Assad regime as a “legitimate authority under attack”. Since a land operation can be ruled out, it may appear in the end that not only has Mr Assad survived but also that Moscow and Tehran have won in the global confrontation with the coalition of the west, Turkey and the Arab League.
[Continues]
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97797d0a-1095-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html
The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
By Georgy Mirsky
Even if the Assad regime crumbles, Russia will not deem Putin a loser, writes Georgy Mirsky
Every now and then one of my English-speaking colleagues asks me what Russia will do if the western powers make good on their threats and strike at Syria. My answer is: nothing. Russia does not have to do anything, it can just sit quiet. The situation is advantageous to Moscow. Our leaders will be only too happy to see the US start a new war it cannot win.
Consider the options. A land invasion is out of the question. Sustained air bombardment risks the loss of pilots, and would therefore be unacceptable for the public in the west. The likeliest avenue is missile strikes; President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will undoubtedly suffer – but Russia and Iran will be able to make up for any losses. The allies will give Mr Assad a bloody nose and that is it. Punitive strikes cannot bring about a turning point in the hostilities. Any substantial change in the correlation of forces on the ground is not feasible.
So, morally and psychologically, the Assad regime will score points, at least in the eyes of the developing world – and certainly in those of Russia. Propaganda is certain to draw parallels with the intervention in Iraq 10 years ago. It is, of course, very easy to picture the US as a global bully ever bent on inventing pretexts for aggression. Iran will be jubilant. Many people in Syria will be inclined to resist a new imperialist crusade.
Upping the ante is advantageous for Moscow. The more the western powers are involved in the conflict, the more deeply they are immersed, the more opportunities emerge for Russia to back the Assad regime as a “legitimate authority under attack”. Since a land operation can be ruled out, it may appear in the end that not only has Mr Assad survived but also that Moscow and Tehran have won in the global confrontation with the coalition of the west, Turkey and the Arab League.
[Continues]
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97797d0a-1095-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html
Re: The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
Posted by:
Fed up
()
Date: August 29, 2013 09:12PM
^^^ +1
You got it. That fool in the White House only knows how to play Golf. Putin plays Chess.
You got it. That fool in the White House only knows how to play Golf. Putin plays Chess.
Re: The west is playing in to Moscow’s hands on Syria
Posted by:
WingNut
()
Date: August 29, 2013 09:22PM
While Obama was filing nuisance racial lawsuits in Chicago, Putin was seeing how this nasty world often really works in the KGB.
Academic chumps like Obama are no match for bad actors like Putin.
Academic chumps like Obama are no match for bad actors like Putin.
idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam
Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.
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