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Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: ><))))*>..><))))*>..><))))*>.. ()
Date: July 24, 2013 08:44AM

~ Murder, violent crime, robbery and theft falling across western nations
~ Crime wave that began in the 1950s in broad retreat in recent years
~ Increased policing and changing demographics among explanations

Crime rates in the developed world have plummeted over the last few decades, startling new figures have revealed.

Comparative statistics for the G7 nations show that many places are now safer to live than in the halcyon days of the 1950s.

And despite the economic crisis creating rampant unemployment and social breakdown in some western cities, robberies, car thefts and even murders have fallen substantially. In some cases, such crime has practically vanished.

Cities have seen the biggest impact from the receding of the crime wave that swept the developed world in 1950, according to The Economist.

While violent crime has fallen by 32 per cent since 1990 across the U.S. as a whole, in the biggest cities the figure rises to 64 per cent.

New York's Times Square, once a hotbed of crime, is now a global tourist attraction thronged with families.

Police records and victim surveys indicate that crime against the person and against property has fallen in the majority of rich countries over the past decade.

The fall began around 1991 in the U.S., with Britain experiencing the same trend around 1995, followed by a fall in the murder rate that began in the mid-2000s.

In 2012, 86,000 cars were reported stolen in England and Wales. In 1997, that figure was 400,000.

In France crime against property continued to rise until 2001, but has since dropped sharply by a third.

In other EU countries the picture is even more positive - Estonia's murder rate has dropped by 70 per cent by 70 per cent, with robbery and car theft down by almost the same amount.

This is despite the fact a deep recession has seen unemployment creep up to 19 per cent in Estonia, the report said.

But what are the reasons behind this broad reversal in crime rates that had been climbing over the decades?

A majority of crimes are committed by male offenders aged between 16 and 24 - and the post WWII baby boom resulted in a ballooning in that age bracket two decades later.

That impact is now long in the past, and in 2013 the population of western countries is ageing rapidly as people live longer.

Some dispute the suggestion that demographics are behind the falling crime rates, with a deputy assistant commissioner for London's Met Police, Mark Simmons, pointing out that the city is home to increasing numbers of 18 to 24-year-old men - yet offences continue to fall.

University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt cites the legalisation of abortion in the 1970s in America, a factor he credits with cutting the country's crime rate.

Mr Levitt argues that there were fewer children growing up in poverty and therefore fewer more likely to turn to crime.

But that does not explain why crime began falling in the U.S. before it did in Britain, where abortion was made legal earlier.

Others have argued that the expanding prison population is evidence of fewer criminals on the streets - hence lower crime rates.

The prison population in Britain doubled between 1993 and 2012, the Economist said, increasing by almost the same level in Australia and the U.S. respectively.

But other countries have reduced the number of prisoners behind bars and still seen a fall in crime.

A bigger police presence in many cities has been credited with helping to rid streets of crime, along with modern technology and tactics that has transformed detective work; from DNA testing to mobile phone tracking and surveillance cameras. All this adds up to a substantial deterrent to would-be criminals.

Social changes also mean young people in many wealthy countries are likely to stay living with their parents and remain in higher education - all of which results in a generally better behaved generation.

Britain's 18 to 24-year-olds are far less likely to drink or to have sampled an illegal drug than their predecessors a decade earlier - and that pattern is reflected across most European countries.

Drug epidemics that blighted major countries - crack cocaine in 1990s America, heroin in Europe in the 1980s - have receded, and crime rates with them, and the gentrification of inner city areas has seen neighbourhood watch groups established and derelict areas cleaned up.

Finally some criminologists suggest the following explanation for the drop in crime; that offenders have fewer opportunities.

Shops and businesses are increasingly security conscious, and the number of British homes with a burglar alarm rocketed by half between 1995 and 2011, while many items it would once have been worth robbing a house for are no longer valuable enough to justify the crime.

But it is not all good news. Because sexual offences regularly go unrecorded, they could potentially be becoming more common - not less.

Instances of other crimes such as banking fraud and money-wire scams might rise in the tech-savvy world of 2013.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2373754/Crime-fallen-70-major-global-cities-despite-economic-crisis-rising-unemployment.html#ixzz2Zxy6KCFd


Attachments:
G7_Crime.jpg

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Atom ()
Date: July 24, 2013 09:05AM

We could cut the current rate in half if we started offering financial incentives for abortions.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Blame The Boomers ()
Date: July 24, 2013 09:13AM

Perhaps not coincidentally, 1995 was the approximate year that the last of the Baby Boomers hit 30.

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Shitty Places I've Lived in FAIRFAX
Posted by: WingNut ()
Date: July 24, 2013 09:18AM

SUrprise.


Law enforcement will cite "tougher laws" and "better trained cops" and stress the demand for increased funding.


Social services will cite "better comprehensive services" and "better prevention" and stress the demand for increased funding.


Law enforcement will cite "better education" and "better funded schools" and stress the demand for increased funding.

I think it's probably to do with baby boomers (as mentioned) and the fact that crack cocaine use has diminished as have the related drug wars that came with it in the 80's, early 90's.


idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/17/2015 12:26AM by WingNut.


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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: the blacks / browns are in jail ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:05PM

dont be a fool....

the western nations were smart to build giant prisons.

They are now filled wiht the scum of the earth (blacks/spics) so of course the crime rate has fallen in CIVILIZED countries.

But the brown and yellow countries?? crime is increasing 10 fold.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: BEH ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:14PM

In the third world, is it really fair to call the primitive people there "criminals"?

Take the god forsaken cesspool known as "Somalia" for example.

Someone considered a criminal in the US would be a candidate for Pope in Somalia.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Norm ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:19PM

Go back another 20 years or so and you'll see a completely different graph. Here's a secret. It's not really down relative to historic trends; rather, there was a big bump in the numbers (for a variety of reasons) starting in the 80s through mid90s. The levels now better reflect the norm.

I hate crap like this. People cherry pick data and make bs graphs that work for whatever story they want to tell.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Carlos_Danger ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:31PM

Good point. It would be nice to see more longitudinal data, perhaps back to the beginning of the 20th century if that's possible. Then you'd have all kinds of crazy things factored in: 2 wars, the depression, prohibition, cultural revolution, baby boomers, 2 bouts of mass immigration, abortion, desegregation, etc.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Whahuh? ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:42PM

Norm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hate crap like this. People cherry pick data
> and make bs graphs that work for whatever story
> they want to tell.

Hey, thanks for taking the time to back-up your bullshit post with documentation. Douche.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Norm ()
Date: July 24, 2013 12:43PM

Carlos_Danger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good point. It would be nice to see more
> longitudinal data, perhaps back to the beginning
> of the 20th century if that's possible. Then you'd
> have all kinds of crazy things factored in: 2
> wars, the depression, prohibition, cultural
> revolution, baby boomers, 2 bouts of mass
> immigration, abortion, desegregation, etc.

Do you not know of the google?

Ask the google, for the google knows all.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Carlos_Danger ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:09PM

Too lazy.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Norm ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:21PM

Whahuh? Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Norm Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I hate crap like this. People cherry pick data
> > and make bs graphs that work for whatever story
> > they want to tell.
>
> Hey, thanks for taking the time to back-up your
> bullshit post with documentation. Douche.


On my phone twatley. Not hard to find.


crimechart.png


Hate to use something from Mediamatters but the better graphs that I can find quickly won't hot link through and this one is pretty clean of any bias. Plenty out there otherwise if you want to look. Pretty much all of which shows the same general pattern for whatever type of crime and wherever you want to look at. Which, as I said, paints a different picture than the appearance of an absolute decline shown by shorter time frame data.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Casual_Observer ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:35PM

Crime rates have not been this low since the 1960s.

That's good news to me.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Norm ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:55PM

Casual_Observer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Crime rates have not been this low since the
> 1960s.
>
> That's good news to me.


Better than it was but not some "extinction" trend as described in the article versus getting back to a more normal level. The more recent bump mostly was due to demographics and big increases in drug- and gang-related crime. If you want to go farther back, then you'll see similar bump ups/drop offs at various times reflecting different causes (e.g., large increase in homicide rates during Prohibition, a big drop in crime rates during and after WWII, etc.).

Also note that these are rates/population. Absolute numbers of crimes probably are somewhat higher in various categories. It's also aggregate data for the US overall. There are more specific locations where things aren't that much better. Most do show the same overall trend though.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Blackguy ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:55PM

It's because the WAR ON DRUGS!!!!

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Numbnutz ()
Date: July 24, 2013 01:59PM

"legalisation of abortion in the 1970s in America..."

so that impacted crime rates elsewhere exactly how?

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: ><))))*>..><))))*>..><))))*>.. ()
Date: July 24, 2013 02:10PM

Norm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Better than it was but not some "extinction" trend
> as described in the article versus getting back to
> a more normal level. The more recent bump mostly
> was due to demographics and big increases in drug-
> and gang-related crime. If you want to go farther
> back, then you'll see similar bump ups/drop offs
> at various times reflecting different causes
> (e.g., large increase in homicide rates during
> Prohibition, a big drop in crime rates during and
> after WWII, etc.).
>
> Also note that these are rates/population.
> Absolute numbers of crimes probably are somewhat
> higher in various categories. It's also aggregate
> data for the US overall. There are more specific
> locations where things aren't that much better.
> Most do show the same overall trend though.

You realize that the article & accompanying graph covers much of the western world, right. It's not just about the US.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Numbnutz ()
Date: July 24, 2013 02:14PM

"It's not just about the US."

Then why the specific quotes @ US efforts, numbnutz?

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Liberal Logic 85 ()
Date: July 24, 2013 02:25PM

><))))*>..><))))*>..><))))*>.. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> You realize that the article & accompanying graph
> covers much of the western world, right. It's not
> just about the US.


No it doesnt cover much of the western world, it covers cherry picked parts of it.

It doesnt cover central or south america both of which including mexico are watching crime sky rocket. It also ignoring that inner cities are getting worse in america in a lot of places but by looking at crime on such a massive level you can ignore all that and paint the picture you want because chicago and new orleans and detroit and st louis will get averaged out by crime free places

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: ><))))*>..><))))*>..><))))*>.. ()
Date: July 24, 2013 02:33PM

Numbnutz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Then why the specific quotes @ US efforts.

The article mostly refers to the UK, since it's from a British newspaper.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Norm ()
Date: July 24, 2013 02:49PM

><))))*>..><))))*>..><))))*>.. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Norm Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Better than it was but not some "extinction"
> trend
> > as described in the article versus getting back
> to
> > a more normal level. The more recent bump
> mostly
> > was due to demographics and big increases in
> drug-
> > and gang-related crime. If you want to go
> farther
> > back, then you'll see similar bump ups/drop
> offs
> > at various times reflecting different causes
> > (e.g., large increase in homicide rates during
> > Prohibition, a big drop in crime rates during
> and
> > after WWII, etc.).
> >
> > Also note that these are rates/population.
> > Absolute numbers of crimes probably are
> somewhat
> > higher in various categories. It's also
> aggregate
> > data for the US overall. There are more
> specific
> > locations where things aren't that much better.
>
> > Most do show the same overall trend though.
>
> You realize that the article & accompanying graph
> covers much of the western world, right. It's not
> just about the US.


Most of the same applies across G7 countries. e.g., the US wasn't the only place that the "baby boom" after WWII happened which led to much larger relative numbers of young males in the population, narcotics trafficking expanded greatly globally at teh same time, economic growth and urbanization rates increased worldwide, etc., etc.

If you're actually interested in this, then the UN has a very good series of reports that they did a while back re root causes for violent crime and conflict (beyond war) across the world. I'll try to dig that up later when I'm in a better position to search for stuff. That takes it out of a US-centric view and presents things in a way that you better see what mostly tends to drive such numbers at a very basic level.

Mostly, it breaks down to demographics (populations which are younger and more male), levels of organized criminal activity (gangs, militias, drug cartels, etc.), both of which drive greatly disproportionate levels of activity, specific ethnic/tribal conflicts, effectiveness of policing/enforcement, economics and in particular economic disparity (more crime where there is a larger gap, most relatively poor - not as much, most relatively richer - not as much), education levels., etc. All pretty much operating in the same way regardless where the same various factors exist largely representing basic human behaviors.

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Re: Could crime become extinct? Staggering figures show how crime rates have fallen by up to 70% in parts of the western world
Posted by: Vexxxed ()
Date: July 24, 2013 08:57PM

Carlos_Danger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Too lazy.
Attachments:
laziness-funny-demotivational-posters-1361421507.jpg

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