Re: Minnesota/Delaware shootings
Posted by:
Libbabble
()
Date: February 12, 2013 02:43PM
U R a Moron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You people are missing the point.
>
> 'The researchers state that the study shows "in
> areas with more firearms, people of all ages were
> more likely to be murdered, especially with
> handguns."'
>
> That is the point. Do you see anything in there
> regarding suicide? Or race? 'The usage rate of
> guns used in personal defense' What does that even
> mean? How do they define 'personal defense'? If I
> think someone broke into my house and I blow away
> my kid who is sneaking in late, is that
> self-defense? Would George Zimmerman be included
> as someone acting in self-defense?
>
> Instead of deflecting and misrepresenting my
> positions, why don't you come up with some real
> arguments for a change.
>
> P.S. I'm not Mittens. There is more than one
> rational person on this board.
WTF are you babbling about?
Your stats are slanted and presented without context. Just as one of many examples, what they didn't state in the extract that you posted is that in the highest gun-ownership states, the overall and non-gun murder rate also is significantly higher than the lowest ownership states.
They've also chosen a period of time 88-97 where there was a significant increase in gun-related murder rates overall and, in particular, gang- and drug-related murders in some specific areas included in the high-ownership states (New orleans, Birmingham areas, etc.). If you rand this same analysis again today given vastly lower stats for murder and gun-related murder, then you'd very likely have entirely different results. (Although some areas like New Orleans still would push that group higher on its own).
They also based their high-ownership selection on a skewed sample based on suicide rates:
"At the state level, published data on reported household gun ownership are available for only a nonrandom sample of 21 states.21 To analyze all 50 states, we used a proxy for household firearm ownership: the fraction of all suicides in a state that involve a firearm, referred to hereafter as FS/S."
Doing so, they avoid having to include states like MD, IL, and CA, all of which have high murder rates as well as lower numbers of guns (and greater restrictions) which would not yield the results that they want.
Likewise, it overemphasizes states like LA, which is high due to New Orleans being a murder center, MI, which is very high due to Detroit, neither of which reflect much of anything related to legal gun ownership, and at the other end, MS and WV for which the *RATE* (not number) is high only because it has a low population relative to the numbers of guns,
Even they state:
"Our study included only a limited number of potential confounders—poverty, urbanization, unemployment, alcohol consumption, and violent crimes (aggravated assault, forcible rape, and robbery)—and then only in state-level analyses. We found, consistent with previous work, that homicide rates were higher in areas with higher rates of urbanization, poverty, and nonlethal violent crime (not shown),25–28 but many other factors may affect homicide rates. It is not clear, however, whether accounting for these or other area wide characteristics would increase or reduce the magnitude or significance of the association between rates of household firearm ownership and homicide."
Actually is it very clear that all of these factors are key in driving the murder and other violent crime rates, and that's exactly what you see if you disaggregate the data to metropolitan areas versus a state level.
Third, it's a fairly ridiculous analysis to begin with. Of course there are more gun-related murders where there are more guns. lol Doesn't mean that guns are the cause. It's simply an attempt to "scientifically" "prove" through correlation and thereby implication that guns are the root cause. Which they are not.