Even with all the diversity? Ive heard a handful of FCPS schools actually had a white population increase, I think a few schools will receive more whites with the redevelopment of older garden apartments in some regions of the county. I heard Mount Vernon increased and a few other schools.

Any thoughts?

Ehhh..Id say Fairfax will, its been slowly increasing for years. Also Fairfax City is tearing down 3 of its worst illegal filled apartment complexes, thus Latino pop. will decrease(its not that high anyway) whites will flock to Ffx City, Fairfax High def getting whiter in years to come.

None will, The population shift is going one way, and only one way.

Possibly the schools around Tysons, BUT there will be low income housing added as Tysons redevelops and move closer to the #10 Business District in the US.

What will happen is most of the housing around Tysons will increase in price and therefore the more educated and affluent will end up moving in.

But unclear how much low income housing will be built and how many students this will bring to FCPS.

reggie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ehhh..Id say Fairfax will, its been slowly
> increasing for years. Also Fairfax City is tearing
> down 3 of its worst illegal filled apartment
> complexes, thus Latino pop. will decrease(its not
> that high anyway) whites will flock to Ffx City,
> Fairfax High def getting whiter in years to come.

What apt complexes are gonna be torn down?

Ponch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> reggie Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Ehhh..Id say Fairfax will, its been slowly
> > increasing for years. Also Fairfax City is
> tearing
> > down 3 of its worst illegal filled apartment
> > complexes, thus Latino pop. will decrease(its
> not
> > that high anyway) whites will flock to Ffx
> City,
> > Fairfax High def getting whiter in years to
> come.
>
> What apt complexes are gonna be torn down?

Layton Hall, Oak Knolls, and Fairfax Gardens

Gotta be TC Williams for the win, this school cant get any blacker/browner. Most white kids in that district go to private school if parents can afford it, many will start going back to public schools and rule the roost, or get beat down till they start fighting back.

FeceH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Possibly the schools around Tysons, BUT there will
> be low income housing added as Tysons redevelops
> and move closer to the #10 Business District in
> the US.
>
> What will happen is most of the housing around
> Tysons will increase in price and therefore the
> more educated and affluent will end up moving in.
>
> But unclear how much low income housing will be
> built and how many students this will bring to
> FCPS.

Who would want to raise a family in Tysons Corner?

mt3Wk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FeceH Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Possibly the schools around Tysons, BUT there
> will
> > be low income housing added as Tysons
> redevelops
> > and move closer to the #10 Business District in
> > the US.
> >
> > What will happen is most of the housing around
> > Tysons will increase in price and therefore the
> > more educated and affluent will end up moving
> in.
> >
> > But unclear how much low income housing will be
> > built and how many students this will bring to
> > FCPS.
>
> Who would want to raise a family in Tysons Corner?

It's not about raising a family in Tysons Corner, it is about the JOBS that will be in Tysons Corner and the fact that all the residential areas around Tysons will start to increase in price because the people working in Tysons will not want to commute for hours on end.

So Vienna, Pimmit Hills, McLean, Falls Church, Wolf Trap will all start to see an increase in housing values due to the Metro, but more so because of jobs.

All of the Garden Apartments along Anderson Steet will be torn down and replaced with up to 17 story high rise apartments/condos. These are supposed to be small efficiencies and 1 bedroom unit that will not likely have families, but what the developer claims and who/what moves in are very different.

So I expect that Madison, Marshall, George Mason, McLean and Langley may see some shifting in demographics over the next 5-10 years.

I don't think anyone expect the white population to increase in Fairfax for 50 years or more. When the backlash takes root.

Over the past five years, the white enrollment has increased in absolute numbers, if not percentage terms, at Falls Church, Lake Braddock, Marshall, McLean, South Lakes, Stuart, and Woodson. At Lake Braddock, South Lakes and Woodson, some of that was due to redistricting. Falls Church and Stuart have some older neighborhoods that have been turning over to younger families, and Marshall and McLean pull from neighborhoods near Tysons/Metro.

Madison and Langley still have the highest percentages of white students in the county, but the number of white students at both of those schools has declined over the past five years, while the number of Asians at Langley and both Asians and Hispanics at Madison increased.

I think the metro is gonna attract affluent families to areas that were shady before, the tearing down of garden apartments basically gets rid of the hispanic pop. I think South Lakes, Fairfax, Madison, McLean, Marshall, and a few others will benefit. A few areas in the county will turn into something demographically comparable to North Arlington. Also yesterday I saw a lot of young white families in the Fair Lakes area, Whites are still moving to the county.

Gotye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think the metro is gonna attract affluent
> families to areas that were shady before, the
> tearing down of garden apartments basically gets
> rid of the hispanic pop. I think South Lakes,
> Fairfax, Madison, McLean, Marshall, and a few
> others will benefit. A few areas in the county
> will turn into something demographically
> comparable to North Arlington. Also yesterday I
> saw a lot of young white families in the Fair
> Lakes area, Whites are still moving to the county.

Fairfax City wants to become a white yuppie haven similar to Vienna and Arlington. Its working, saying goodbye to those shit apartments will be awesome

Gotye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think the metro is gonna attract affluent
> families to areas that were shady before, the
> tearing down of garden apartments basically gets
> rid of the hispanic pop. I think South Lakes,
> Fairfax, Madison, McLean, Marshall, and a few
> others will benefit. A few areas in the county
> will turn into something demographically
> comparable to North Arlington. Also yesterday I
> saw a lot of young white families in the Fair
> Lakes area, Whites are still moving to the county.

They won't be like North Arlington, because FCPS has academic programs that appeal to many Asians, while North Arlington attracts whites who don't want their kids to be forced to compete. That's why TJ and the other top schools in FCPS outperform the top schools in Arlington every year. It doesn't matter what they pay the teachers in Arlington or whether they have smaller class sizes, because the kids are coddled and not expected to work as hard.

Demographer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Over the past five years, the white enrollment has
> increased in absolute numbers, if not percentage
> terms, at Falls Church, Lake Braddock, Marshall,
> McLean, South Lakes, Stuart, and Woodson. At Lake
> Braddock, South Lakes and Woodson, some of that
> was due to redistricting. Falls Church and Stuart
> have some older neighborhoods that have been
> turning over to younger families, and Marshall and
> McLean pull from neighborhoods near Tysons/Metro.
>
>
> Madison and Langley still have the highest
> percentages of white students in the county, but
> the number of white students at both of those
> schools has declined over the past five years,
> while the number of Asians at Langley and both
> Asians and Hispanics at Madison increased.

The data do not bear out your statements.

Percentage of the school population that was white 2012-2013

Madison 69.9
Langley 69.5
Woodson 60.9
Oakton 60.4
McLean 60.2
Robinson 59.1
West Springfield 59.0
Marshall 56.1
Lake Braddock 54.0
Chantilly 50.9
South County 50.7
South Lakes 47.4
Westfield 47.0
Herndon 45.4
West Potomac 40.8
Centreville 40.6
Fairfax 39.6
Hayfield 33.8
Edison 31.9
Stuart 23.9
Lee 23.8
Mount Vernon 22.5
Falls Church 22.1
Annandale 21.8

Percentage that was white 2014-2015

Madison 68.1 -1.8
Langley 67.9 -1.6
Woodson 57.1 -3.8
Oakton 55.9 -4.5
McLean 55.2 -5.0
Robinson 58.7 -0.4
West Springfield 57.4 -1.6
Marshall 55.2 -0.9
Lake Braddock 50.8 -3.2
Chantilly 46.4 -4.5
South County 47.3 -3.4
South Lakes 44.5 -2.9
Westfield 42.4 -4.6
Herndon 38.3 -7.1
West Potomac 38.4 -2.4
Centreville 39.7 -0.9
Fairfax 40.6 +1.0
Hayfield 31.5 -2.3
Edison 29.8 -2.1
Stuart 23.6 -0.3
Lee 19.6 -4.2
Mount Vernon 20.8 -1.7
Falls Church 20.3 -1.8
Annandale 18.7 -3.1

noclue??? Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Demographer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Over the past five years, the white enrollment
> has
> > increased in absolute numbers, if not
> percentage
> > terms, at Falls Church, Lake Braddock,
> Marshall,
> > McLean, South Lakes, Stuart, and Woodson. At
> Lake
> > Braddock, South Lakes and Woodson, some of that
> > was due to redistricting. Falls Church and
> Stuart
> > have some older neighborhoods that have been
> > turning over to younger families, and Marshall
> and
> > McLean pull from neighborhoods near
> Tysons/Metro.
> >
> >
> > Madison and Langley still have the highest
> > percentages of white students in the county,
> but
> > the number of white students at both of those
> > schools has declined over the past five years,
> > while the number of Asians at Langley and both
> > Asians and Hispanics at Madison increased.
>
> The data do not bear out your statements.
>
> Percentage of the school population that was white
> 2012-2013
>
> Madison 69.9
> Langley 69.5
> Woodson 60.9
> Oakton 60.4
> McLean 60.2
> Robinson 59.1
> West Springfield 59.0
> Marshall 56.1
> Lake Braddock 54.0
> Chantilly 50.9
> South County 50.7
> South Lakes 47.4
> Westfield 47.0
> Herndon 45.4
> West Potomac 40.8
> Centreville 40.6
> Fairfax 39.6
> Hayfield 33.8
> Edison 31.9
> Stuart 23.9
> Lee 23.8
> Mount Vernon 22.5
> Falls Church 22.1
> Annandale 21.8
>
> Percentage that was white 2014-2015
>
> Madison 68.1 -1.8
> Langley 67.9 -1.6
> Woodson 57.1 -3.8
> Oakton 55.9 -4.5
> McLean 55.2 -5.0
> Robinson 58.7 -0.4
> West Springfield 57.4 color="red">-1.6
> Marshall 55.2 -0.9
> Lake Braddock 50.8 color="red">-3.2
> Chantilly 46.4 -4.5
> South County 47.3 color="red">-3.4
> South Lakes 44.5 color="red">-2.9
> Westfield 42.4 -4.6
> Herndon 38.3 -7.1
> West Potomac 38.4 color="red">-2.4
> Centreville 39.7 color="red">-0.9
> Fairfax 40.6 +1.0
> Hayfield 31.5 -2.3
> Edison 29.8 -2.1
> Stuart 23.6 -0.3
> Lee 19.6 -4.2
> Mount Vernon 20.8 color="red">-1.7
> Falls Church 20.3 color="red">-1.8
> Annandale 18.7 -3.1

Actually, what I said was entirely correct. You just didn't understand it and then you posted different numbers dealing only with changes in percentages over a shorter time frame. A school can have an increasing number, but declining percentage, of white students if the non-white cohorts are growing even faster.

Demographer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Actually, what I said was entirely correct. You
> just didn't understand it and then you posted
> different numbers dealing only with changes in
> percentages over a shorter time frame. A school
> can have an increasing number, but declining
> percentage, of white students if the non-white
> cohorts are growing even faster.

I understood you. You added, "if not percentage terms," which led me to believe you didn't know the real numbers. OK, so I used 3 years instead of 5 years. I'll track down the numbers for 2010-2011 school year and we'll see.

Well, you weren't totally correct but I'll give you credit. You know more about what is going on than I do.
Attachments:

The true number of white kids is impossible to figure out because the kids from the Middle East are mixed in with the White numbers.

noclue??? Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, you weren't totally correct but I'll give
> you credit. You know more about what is going on
> than I do.

I was comparing 2009 and 2014, and I inadvertently omitted West Potomac.

Working with your numbers:

- Edison had an increase because of areas redistricted from Annandale.
- Fairfax had a natural increase, but that will reverse itself shortly now that FCPS has moved kids from Fairfax to Woodson and Oakton.
- Madison is basically flat, but is now becoming more Asian and Hispanic.
- Marshall had a big increase as more people bought near Tysons/Dunn Loring, plus the IB program there attracts some whites from surrounding areas.
- McLean also saw an increase, but a smaller increase than at Marshall because it's attracting more Asians, who prefer AP and the "name schools" in FCPS.
- Robinson picked up a heavily white neighborhood in Fairfax Station redistricted from Woodson.
- South Lakes had a bunch of neighborhoods redistricted there in 2008, so the white enrollment increased over time as the redistricting was phased in.
- Stuart and West Potomac saw natural growth in enrollment, due to older neighborhoods in Falls Church and Alexandria turning over to younger families.
- Woodson added single-family neighborhoods from Annandale and Fairfax, offset slightly by losing a mostly white neighborhood to Fairfax Station.

It is what it is. If you're white, and think FCPS would be better with more white kids, go breed this weekend. Whites will be a minority in the county, just as they are in FCPS, fairly soon. Or listen to Bill Nye's recent speech, in which he calls race an artificial construct with no scientific relevance or meaning.

So what happened in western county? Herndon, Chantilly, Westfield saw big changes. Westfield lost about 500 students overall in a boundary readjustment (going from roughly 3200 to 2700). I guess some of the white neighborhoods went to South Lakes.

Yeah, FCPS is the one keeping track of these numbers so closely - I'm just looking at them.

noclue??? Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So what happened in western county? Herndon,
> Chantilly, Westfield saw big changes. Westfield
> lost about 500 students overall in a boundary
> readjustment (going from roughly 3200 to 2700). I
> guess some of the white neighborhoods went to
> South Lakes.
>
> Yeah, FCPS is the one keeping track of these
> numbers so closely - I'm just looking at them.

Western Fairfax is losing white families to Loudoun and Prince William now, but the situations at the three schools you mentioned are different. Chantilly is joining Centreville as the most Asian part of the county with a huge Korean population. Herndon is probably adding Hispanics at a faster rate than anywhere else in NoVa now. Westfield is in between, with moderate increases in Asian, Black and Hispanic enrollments and a corresponding decline in white students. There really wasn't that much of Westfield that got moved to South Lakes - just part of the Floris area.

Main is the place.

Demographer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> noclue??? Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > So what happened in western county? Herndon,
> > Chantilly, Westfield saw big changes.
> Westfield
> > lost about 500 students overall in a boundary
> > readjustment (going from roughly 3200 to 2700).
> I
> > guess some of the white neighborhoods went to
> > South Lakes.
> >
> > Yeah, FCPS is the one keeping track of these
> > numbers so closely - I'm just looking at them.
>
> Western Fairfax is losing white families to
> Loudoun and Prince William now, but the situations
> at the three schools you mentioned are different.
> Chantilly is joining Centreville as the most Asian
> part of the county with a huge Korean population.
> Herndon is probably adding Hispanics at a faster
> rate than anywhere else in NoVa now. Westfield is
> in between, with moderate increases in Asian,
> Black and Hispanic enrollments and a corresponding
> decline in white students. There really wasn't
> that much of Westfield that got moved to South
> Lakes - just part of the Floris area.

Correct. About 250 were moved to South Lakes. The rest of the decline was natural and expected as the big developments aged.

Maine. But alo New Hampshire and Vermont.

Hey at least we arent a "minority majority" county, PWC, PG, and Moco got fucked with minorities, Fairfax has managed to stave that off for years.

White People Move Here Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey at least we arent a "minority majority"
> county, PWC, PG, and Moco got fucked with
> minorities, Fairfax has managed to stave that off
> for years.

The non-Hispanic white population in Fairfax was estimated by the Census at 52.7% in 2013. It could well be under 50% now. Can you handle it, or will you flee to Tea Party Loudoun or Yuppie Jerk Arlington? Act soon, before you wake up as just another minority.

Whitey has given his country away.