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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Nate Silver Forecast on Senate Elections
Posted by:
Nate Silver
()
Date: October 26, 2014 05:24PM
Since Democrats are now quoting nate Silver in their fundraing ads, here's what he is saying:
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: 63 percent.
Republicans’ odds have never been higher than 66 percent — a figure they reached late last week — or lower than 53 percent. The informal model updates we published going as far back as March also had Republicans as 55 or 60 percent favorites.
To an extent, this stability reflects the noise-reducing features of the FiveThirtyEight model. Our program examines the polls for signs of statistical bias, and weighs them more heavily when they have larger sample sizes, better methodologies and better track records — which can reduce the impact of outliers. The FiveThirtyEight model is also fairly conservative in estimating the uncertainty associated with each race and the disposition of the Senate overall. At times in the past, the polls in most swing states have been biased in the same direction (either toward Democrats or Republicans).
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: 63 percent.
Republicans’ odds have never been higher than 66 percent — a figure they reached late last week — or lower than 53 percent. The informal model updates we published going as far back as March also had Republicans as 55 or 60 percent favorites.
To an extent, this stability reflects the noise-reducing features of the FiveThirtyEight model. Our program examines the polls for signs of statistical bias, and weighs them more heavily when they have larger sample sizes, better methodologies and better track records — which can reduce the impact of outliers. The FiveThirtyEight model is also fairly conservative in estimating the uncertainty associated with each race and the disposition of the Senate overall. At times in the past, the polls in most swing states have been biased in the same direction (either toward Democrats or Republicans).
Re: Nate Silver Forecast on Senate Elections
Posted by:
not valid
()
Date: October 26, 2014 05:53PM
He says himself that his poll is a Conservative estimate.
Re: Nate Silver Forecast on Senate Elections
Posted by:
Ouch...
()
Date: October 26, 2014 07:42PM
not valid Wrote:
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> He says himself that his poll is a Conservative estimate.
The word in that context doesn't mean what you think it means.
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> He says himself that his poll is a Conservative estimate.
The word in that context doesn't mean what you think it means.
Re: Nate Silver Forecast on Senate Elections
Posted by:
FCPS FTW
()
Date: October 26, 2014 08:19PM
not valid Wrote:
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> He says himself that his poll is a Conservative
> estimate.
[sigh]
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> He says himself that his poll is a Conservative
> estimate.
[sigh]