Wild Thing Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nutty's Sack Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Okay, then look @ the numbers.
> >
> > According to the BLS, the US Civilian Labor
> Force
> > - Employed was 142,220,000 in July and
> 143,262,00
> > in November. That's an increase in employment
> of
> > 1,042,000.
> >
> >
http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
> >
> Again, you're ignoring prior changes to the number
> that affects the basis for the % calculation and
> population effects which make the unemployment and
> participation % appear smaller than they would be
> otherwise in a growing economy.
There aren't any trends in these BLS numbers. The Civilian noninstitutional population, Civilian labor force, and Unemployed numbers are snapshots in time.
Not in labor force = Civilian noninstitutional population - Civilian labor force
Unemployed = Civilian labor force – Employed
Prior changes have nothing to do with these numbers.
There were 1,042,000 more people employed in this country in November than there were in July. During this same period, the Civilian noninstitutional population grew by 820,000, while the Civilian labor force grew by 278,000, which accounts for the 543,000 person rise in the Not in labor force number.
There were also 765,000 fewer unemployed, which is the difference between the increase in employment over the period (1,042,000) and the increase in the Civilian labor force (278,000). The economy created more jobs than there were people entering the work force, hence unemployment decreased.
> We need somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000
> added each month just to keep up with population
> growth. So, at a little over 1 million jobs added
> we're basically just treading water and the main
> difference in the rate results from the size of
> the pie just getting smaller.
The economy added nearly two jobs for each person who left the labor force over the period. That is what drove the unemployment rate down by six-tenths of a percent.
> It's not false. But you don't have to believe me.
> If you look to most any objective economic
> analysis group virtually all agree that the
> primary cause for lower unemployment numbers at
> this point is the reduction to the relative size
> of the workforce. e.g., Even by left-leaning
> groups like Brookings:
>
> "For the last couple of months we have a situation
> where the unemployment rate is still declining,
> but that's because people are leaving the
> workforce," says Gary Burtless, a labor economist
> at the Brookings Institution.
>
> That quote was from April but the same applies as
> the underlying circumstances represented with
> respect to the unemployment calculation remain the
> same.
I don’t think Mr. Burtless would agree with you:
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/jobs/posts/2012/11/02-jobs-burtless