fucked We're fucked!

A blame George W. Bush chorus in 3........2.........1.........

Anyone for QE3 and $6 gasoline?

New chant...blame the tea party. The biggest drops were in state spending. It isn't magic folks. Just like it's not smart to raise taxes during recessions, neither is it smart to slash spending.

The 1.3% growth in GDP isn't the most shocking thing in this mornings report. The Commerce dept revised 1 qtr growth down from 1.9% growth to .4%.

Question. How the fuck does the Commerce Dept throw a number up 4.75 times actual GDP growth? and if they are not any more accurate than that what good are they? This is absolutely unacceptable. We should save money by demanding the Com. Dept be shut down immediately, everyone sent home/ fired. Then a complete independent audit of both the Commerce and Labor Depts. What an absolute waste of money these government bean counters are . They are worthless.

Les Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyone for QE3 and $6 gasoline?

I hold oil and gold. Bring on the inflation. Bring it!

Well what do you expect? First quarter output growth was bad(now down to .4%), and growth this quarter was bad because of uncertainty over the debt ceiling.

QE3's not the answer. Two rounds of QE were enough, and each subsequent round is less effective than the preceding round.

What we need is more stimulus, but good luck with that.

The Federal Reserve has zero control over oil prices.

It was a bad time to hold gold during the 2008 financial crisis, and if we go into debt default, it will be worthless once again.

I am waiting for the two trillion spent in stimulus money to kick in. Any day now

New Chant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> New chant...blame the tea party. The biggest
> drops were in state spending. It isn't magic
> folks. Just like it's not smart to raise taxes
> during recessions, neither is it smart to slash
> spending.

Their federal stimulus is running out. Google Virginia teacher layoffs.

Les Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> New Chant Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > New chant...blame the tea party. The biggest
> > drops were in state spending. It isn't magic
> > folks. Just like it's not smart to raise taxes
> > during recessions, neither is it smart to slash
> > spending.
>
> Their federal stimulus is running out. Google
> Virginia teacher layoffs.


And that in a state with a reported surplus. No secret Republican agenda there.

I guess we need to find another business line for good old U.S.A., Inc. now that the war-business gravy train has almost reached the station.

McDonnel Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Les Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > New Chant Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > New chant...blame the tea party. The biggest
> > > drops were in state spending. It isn't magic
> > > folks. Just like it's not smart to raise
> taxes
> > > during recessions, neither is it smart to
> slash
> > > spending.
> >
> > Their federal stimulus is running out. Google
> > Virginia teacher layoffs.
>
>
> And that in a state with a reported surplus. No
> secret Republican agenda there.

Is there a link? Honestly searching Google for your inferred reference yielded nada that is recent or relevant.

If you can’t model the past, where you know the answer pretty well, how can you model the future? - William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton University

Federal stimulus money is running out for schools

http://hamptonroads.com/2011/07/federal-stimulus-money-running-out-schools

The article covers only the school payrolls, but the stimulus would cover other areas of spending, such as the contracted work for school constructions and rehab.

Alan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Federal Reserve has zero control over oil
> prices.
>
> It was a bad time to hold gold during the 2008
> financial crisis, and if we go into debt default,
> it will be worthless once again.

Umm, what you say is 100% true. However, oil is traded in DOLLARS. Not Euros. Not Swiss francs. Not Chinese Renminbi. Assuming demand remains level, a decline in the value of the dollar results in an increase in the price oil. The same goes for any commodity. A flight to safety in the wake of further quantitative easing will drive gold prices up. It's basic economics.

The difference between now and 2008? The Euro is now as worthless as the USD.


Edit: For what it's worth, my portfolio is up 0.11% today. Granted, not much, but better than the market as a whole.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/29/2011 04:25PM by Hank Moody.

flat tax.

a-10 thunderbolt Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess we need to find another business line for
> good old U.S.A., Inc. now that the war-business
> gravy train has almost reached the station.


Doesn't matter if the war is Bush's or Obama's. Americans pay financially and with their lives. Not worth the short economic gain.

predictionator wrote:

"A blame George W. Bush chorus in 3........2.........1........."

Thanks. I just did.

For 2007-2010, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of less than 0.1 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2011, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent.

The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point for 2008, was revised down 0.9 percentage point for 2009, and was revised up 0.1 percentage point for 2010.

The revisions to the annual estimates for 2008 and 2010 reflect partly offsetting revisions to the quarters within the year. For example, for 2010, the annual rate of change in GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point for the first quarter and was revised up 2.1 percentage points for the second quarter, while the growth rates for the third and fourth quarters were revised down 0.1 and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. The downward revision to the change in real GDP for 2009 reflects downward revisions to the first and fourth quarters.

For the 13 quarters from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2011, the average revision (without regard to sign) was 0.9 percentage point. The revisions did not change the direction of the change in real GDP (increase or decrease) for any of the quarters.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

Get a Federal govt. job with a non-appropriated agency with a huge budget surplus that pays you the same as a Congressman with great benefits & retirement and just coast for the next 20 years.

China has a GDP of almost 10%.

China has massive inflation. They claim it's only 6%, but it has to be well over 10% with people getting 25% raises.

All the major countries underreport on inflation.

I don't think I've ever seen used cars stage such a sustained price increase, even after Cash for Clunkers ended almost two years ago.

Les Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> China has massive inflation. They claim it's only
> 6%, but it has to be well over 10% with people
> getting 25% raises.
>
> All the major countries underreport on inflation.
>
> I don't think I've ever seen used cars stage such
> a sustained price increase, even after Cash for
> Clunkers ended almost two years ago.


China has built cities that are totally unoccupied. They are using command economy principles to hide weaknesses in their economy. At some point the truth will come out and it will be crippled by hyper-inflation and civil unrest. Unfortunately, this will be bad for the U.S. economy, as well.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Les Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > China has massive inflation. They claim it's
> only
> > 6%, but it has to be well over 10% with people
> > getting 25% raises.
> >
> > All the major countries underreport on
> inflation.
> >
> > I don't think I've ever seen used cars stage
> such
> > a sustained price increase, even after Cash for
> > Clunkers ended almost two years ago.
>
>
> China has built cities that are totally
> unoccupied. They are using command economy
> principles to hide weaknesses in their economy. At
> some point the truth will come out and it will be
> crippled by hyper-inflation and civil unrest.
> Unfortunately, this will be bad for the U.S.
> economy, as well.

This is a spot-on observation. Two and a half years ago I took a two and a half day train ride from Beijing to the far south on the border with Vietnam. All along the approximately 1500 mile ride the countryside was littered with half finished projects. I'm not talking about a bridge here or there or even roads to nowhere. I'm talking entire towns that were partially completed and laying fallow. It became obvious to me that China has so much labor resources at their disposal they can simply throw bodies at a problem to keep them busy or to accomplish a project on command and not worry about the basic economics. Labor and human life is dirt cheap there and the power and mentality that built the Great Wall still exists today.

GDP is often a faulty datum in that it can be goosed so easily on account of government spending, and the GDP deflator which is based upon a faulty measure of inflation (ShadowStats et. al.)

Furthermore, it is a Keynesian ruse, a fixation on which legitimises the rest of Keynesianism.

In lieu, something like Gross Domestic Output (Skousen et. al.) would be preferable. Also, quite often, these data are themselves pretences of knowledge (Hayek).

They have an incentive to falsify GDP since they can't accurately measure employment. Large companies have been shedding several hundred thousand jobs each year as they outsource and offshore. The numbers are heavily dependent on a guesstimate of new small company jobs that they don't directly measure but key off of GDP.

Les Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They have an incentive to falsify GDP since they
> can't accurately measure employment. Large
> companies have been shedding several hundred
> thousand jobs each year as they outsource and
> offshore. The numbers are heavily dependent on a
> guesstimate of new small company jobs that they
> don't directly measure but key off of GDP.

Birth-death model; you nailed it.

It's good to see someone has been reading their subscription to The Freeman.

So, it's official now (at least at MSNBC)

...and of course now they are trying to say the recession never ended - wait for it - so they can do all they can to insulate Obama from the bad policies he has pursued since he got into office...

10 signs the double-dip recession has begun
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43946055/ns/business-us_business/
...The U.S. has entered a second recession. It may not be as bad as the first. Economists say that the Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until July 2009. That may be the way that the economy was seen through the eyes of experts, but many Americans do not believe that the 2008-2009 downturn ever ended. A Gallup poll released in April found that 29 percent of those queried thought the economy was in a “depression” and 26 percent said that the original recession had persisted into 2011.

It is any wonder that many Americans believe that the economic downturn is still in progress? Home prices have fallen to 2002 levels. Values have dropped nearly 50 percent in parts of Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Property values are also down that much in parts of troubled big cities like Detroit. Estimates are that as many as 11 million homes have underwater mortgages. Banks have inventories of as many as 2 million foreclosed homes which have not even been released to the market. Home prices could fall another 10 percent if current trends persist.

Perhaps the most powerful argument that the recession never ended or that a new one has begun is the persistence of unemployment. Fourteen million people are out of work. A third of those have been jobless for more than a year. May employment data showed the jobless rate rose unexpectedly and that the economy added only 58,000 jobs. Experts believe that the unemployment rate will not improve significantly until the monthly gain in jobs is consistently 300,000 jobs or more. And, at that rate the gains would have to go one for more than two years to bring the economy back to what is traditionally considered a reasonable unemployment figure. ...

If you can’t model the past, where you know the answer pretty well, how can you model the future? - William Happer Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics Princeton University

Manufacturing has slowed almost to the point of contraction and is in the toilet too.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43970637

idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM

it is when you are in debt up to your eyes and you have a president who wants to keep spending and take this country down to it's knees.

Two and a half years ago I took a two and a half day train ride from Beijing to the far south on the border with Vietnam. All along the approximately 1500 mile ride the countryside was littered with half finished projects

Wow sounds just like every city in america with housing projects that are just sitting there, some with no people living, some with just a few homes sold. It's everywhere. We overbuilt too. Just look at all the commercial real estate that sits empty. China has enough people that will fill there vacant lots eventually.

Bryan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Wow sounds just like every city in america with
> housing projects that are just sitting there, some
> with no people living, some with just a few homes
> sold. It's everywhere. We overbuilt too. Just look
> at all the commercial real estate that sits empty.
> China has enough people that will fill there
> vacant lots eventually.

I get what you're trying to say, but it's not the same. Housing projects are/were a shitty idea but at least they were occupied and later abandoned, and eventually demolished to make way for something new. I'm talking about development that was never completed before being abandoned. Normally you don't deploy capital unless you're prepared to use it. The Chinese have no problem with it. I guess for them it keeps people busy and to me it's just an example of how cheap and expendable human resources are to them. They chew em up and spit them out.

Go to SW FLA or the eastern suburbs of Los Angeles if you want to see these brand new ghost towns you're talking about. There are some failed projects like that locally but the investors were at least fotrunate enough to have a slightly better economy and be able to sell them at a loss or convert to rentals.

idontlikebeingrightaboutshitlikethisbutiam



Edited 21 time(s). Last edit at 5/31/1967 05:57AM by WingNut.

Last edit at 11/30/2015 01:37PM Last edit at 5/14/2015 03:52PM Last edit at 1/28/2014 05:57AM Last edit at 11/29/2015 01:10PM Last edit at 3/14/2011 11:52PM Last edit at 7/20/2012 04:07AM
Last edit at 6/29/2013 11:18PM Last edit at 3/19/2011 01:02PM Last edit at 3/26/2012 09:07PM

Banks are bulldozing foreclosures.
Cities are bulldozing abandoned neighborhoods.