I'm not going to go back and repost stuff I threw out almost 1 year ago but I've been dead on with my projections. The "experts " have been surprised at the "unexpected" numbers coming in as usual but I haven't and here's why. Lets look at some stats.

1) Durable Goods Orders: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704268104576107752220334820.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLTopStories

"Demand for long-lasting goods unexpectedly fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted $191.04 billion last month on a sharp drop in aircraft orders, the Commerce Department said Thursday."

"Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a 1.4% gain in the volatile durable-goods report in December."

Not much to look forward to here. The government may help a bit later in the year if the planned mass purchase of electric cars comes to fruition. The Republicans may have a way to stop this if they can overcome Executive Power maneuvering. Regardless it would be an artificial stimulus if it succeeded. So lets everyone go out and buy a new refrigerator.

2) Unemployment:
" Initial jobless claims rose 51,000 to 454,000 in the week ended Jan. 22, the Labor Department said in its weekly report. That was the highest level since October 2010. The previous week's figures were revised to 403,000 from 404,000."

Costly regulations kicking in this year will be a major factor suppressing hiring. The new health care reform compliance costs alone will keep unemployment above 9% unless it is stopped.

Also staggering amounts of production and income were shifted into last year in an attempt to circumvent uncertainty in the tax code so inventories are high, revenue will continue to decrease and unemployment will rise.

With durable goods, housing and the coming apocalypse of massive public employee lay-offs the only thing that will drop the unemployment rate below 9% by the end of the year is the way the labor department quantifies the long term folks that have quit looking for work.....And oh yeah. The snowstorm causing the aberration in the unemployment stat?? is 100% bullshit. but go ahead and believe it if it makes you feel better.

3) Housing
There is expected to be 4 million new foreclosures this year nation wide on residential properties with an average value of $170K. That equates to $680 billion. We are a long way from having the air let out of the housing bubble. Excellent news for me actually! I'm launching a new company right now specifically to take advantage of this opportunity. Sending invoices to lending institutions with Real-Estate Owned properties on there books will be one of my favorite hobbies this year. And will have to hire a few good people in the process.

4) Energy Costs
This is what will put a damper on a good economic recovery and shut down a weak one. If we see real economic growth with GDP @ 5.5% or more we will have $6.00 per gallon fuel at the pump. This will add to inflation fears already being exacerbated by the Fed. All the windmills and solar shingles in the world will not stop this.(see Obama's SOTU Address)

5) Inflation:

For those who don't understand why the DOW is doing so well it is simple. The Fed signaled Wednesday they have no plans to call off their $600 billion government-bond-buying campaign.This is exactly the reason everyone is clapping like walruses on Wall Street. That magic show will come to an end sooner rather than later. The last gasps of the Keynesian stimulator's are being breathed right now. Don't be shocked when the DOW falls again down in the 10,000 hood by the end of the year. Exactly the opposite of what the "experts" are saying presently. The Feds low interest rates over time and QE3's intent was to "stimulate" a little inflation with the trade off being to kick start the GDP and hiring.Here is a snapshot of that efforts success so far;



We got the inflation anyway. 1 out of three ain't bad!

Bernanke and Geithner are fucking morons and should be cuffed with a raincoats thrown over their heads complete with a televised perp walk and thrown in the pen for the damage, whether intentional or not, that they have inflicted on the economy.

Tip: As soon as the Fed runs its course with their QE3 initiative...Sell

Latest factory inventory/orders info; http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm


and http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 21 cents at $87.10 a barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.14 to settle at $87.33 a barrel on Wednesday.

It was the first significant move higher for oil in a week after prices tumbled on signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produce about 40 percent of the world's crude, could raise production to bring down the price of oil.

Traders are now taking their cue from world stock markets, which moved higher on Obama's call in the State of the Union address to close corporate tax loopholes and lower business tax rates - moves that could stimulate the world's biggest economy and boost demand for fuel

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http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Kid's this is why you should stay off Facebook. Look how I just got bit in the ASS.

"Green Energy" is the next pets.com or the next housing flip. Get in early because this bubble is going up!