Re: Biden is Now 17 point Favorite to Win 2020 Election, Largest Advantage in History
Posted by:
Depends, etc.
()
Date: June 29, 2020 05:53PM
9JJXB Wrote:
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> Depends on how many dead Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > We have from COVID on election day. Less than
> > 150,000, Trump could very well pull it off.
> > 150,000 to 200,000 he is in serious trouble.
> Over
> > 200,000, he is toast.
> >
> > The economy will trend with the number of dead.
>
> > As will Trump's polling. It is the only number
> > that really matters
>
>
> I used to think something like that. I disagree.
> First of all, Trump's base doesn't care who dies
> as long as it's not them individually. I mean,
> their friends, family, neighbors, whoever can dies
> but as long as they don't die they don't care.
> And of the rest of the people, many people will
> know that Trump fucked it all up, but they'll
> figure that Biden, or any democrat, wouldn't have
> done much better.
>
> I think this election turns on whether the rest of
> the people besides the trumptards are just going
> to be sick of Trump and his chaotic, nasty,
> racist, conspiracy theory bullshit and decide that
> they want it to be normal again, even if it is
> Biden, or if they decide in the end that they can
> take another 4 years of this crap.
I think Trump supporters have a lot to answer for (mainly to themselves), but I don't believe that is a fair picture of the average Trump supporter. They were not worried about COVID when it was happening to "others", but that is about to change. Look at where the hot spots are, more and more in Trump country, or at least places Trump needs to be his country. And even if it does not hit a particular Trump supporter or his or her immediate family, it will hit people who work with them, or go to church with them. They care about those people, and will suffer their losses in a way they did not early when it was not happening to them.
That will make them feel vulnerable, and, understandable, scared. Which is why the death count will be the key number. Not because it is accurate, it probably isn't. It will be a barometer for the scariest thing a lot of them have happened to them.