Caught a little of Limbaugh's show today. He is complaining abut the hit to the economy from the shutdown. Normally, I don't pay much attention to him, but he got me thinking, and I think he makes a valid point, if for all the wrong reasons.

Imagine you are Trump. There is a new disease going around, but you don't know much about it. You are to meet with the disease experts in fifteen minutes, and you know they are going they are to recommend shutting the economy down. But you don't know how many deaths are projected, and how many lives will be saved by shutting it down. The economy will tank if you shut down, and your reelection depends on you making the right decision.

Obviously, you would not shut down to save 1000 lives or even 10,000. But I think most people would at 10,000,000.

If you were Trump, where would you draw the line?

You do not shut the country down and bring our economy to a standstill for 10,000 lives. Hell I don't think I'd do it for 100,000. Now, if we are certain it will get into the millions, ya shut her down. There were over 15,000 homicides in 2018. There are 200 overdoses nationwide every day. People fucking die all the time in this country and none of the reasons has ever had this reaction, regardless of numbers.

The problem is that the leader can't know how many lives he's saving when he has to make the call. Suppose it is the 1300s. You are the emperor of the Eastern Roman Empire. You can choose to shut down seaboard trade between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean based on a rumor of disease appearing in the Russian Steppes, but that would severely affect the economy on which your struggling empire depends. Or you can let business continue on as usual. The latter course was chosen and 1/4 of Europe was killed.

Shutting down the economy may save lives or cost lives.

Unemployment kills.