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Harry Reid could have tried to tell us how great February’s NSA 473,000-job pickup was. In context, it wasn’t that great at all. In fact, as you can see above, it came in lower than February 2008, when the people at the National Bureau of Economic Research say we were in the third month of an economic recession as they define it (as normal people define it, the recession didn’t begin until the third quarter of 2008). Moreover, it was 241,000 jobs lower than the February 2004-2008 average. If the employment situation were really in recovery in February, that difference would have been almost zero. Beyond that, February’s actual result using this metric was far worse than January’s, when the result only trailed the January 2004-2008 average by 72,000.
This isn’t an improvement; it’s a serious deterioration.
The only reason February’s SA number of -36,000 came in as low as it did (but still worse than January’s) is that the SA calculation took February 2009’s free-fall result into account, making it a statistically correct result that confuses more than it enlightens. Further evidence supporting that point is that the SA result for February 2010 is better than February 2008, which as already shown based on what really happened, doesn’t reflect the underlying reality.
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We're sad to say, the picture is even worse than it appears.
Take that "only 36,000" figure. The real number is actually 51,000 jobs lost, because the government counts 15,000 temporary workers hired by the Census as new jobs. But these jobs aren't, in any meaningful sense, real full-time jobs.
Would things have been better without all the snow? Undoubtedly. But we still would have lost jobs.
Then of course there's the very definition of unemployment.
If you count those who are discouraged or working part-time when they want a full-time job, the jobless rate soars to 16.8%.
Private sector employment gauges pretty much show the same thing. For instance, the pollsters at Gallup each month ask Americans questions about their employment. In February, the Gallup report shows, some 19.8% of Americans reported that they were underemployed or not employed at all.
That's one out of five workers — and even more than the 15 million unemployed estimated by the government.
What's troubling is the obliviousness of Washington to this problem — the utter cluelessness they have about the most basic economic principles that guide our economy.
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Federal Spending: It's a good thing President Obama isn't in the private sector. If he was, the budget he just put forward for the next 10 years just might get him indicted for fraud.
Of all the promises the president made during the 2008 presidential campaign and last year's budget debates, none rings so hollow now as the pledge of "fiscal responsibility."
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Spending, of course, is the big reason. As David Freddoso of the Washington Examiner points out, the budget plan submitted by the president shows spending growing each and every year over the next decade — despite the worst fiscal crisis of our nation's history.
All told, spending will swell from $3.5 trillion, or 20% of GDP, in 2009 to $5.7 trillion, or 25.2% of GDP, in 2020. Since World War II, debt has averaged 20% of GDP, so the 2020 projection represents a permanent increase of 25% in the size of government that will weigh like a millstone around the economy's neck. Spending over the next 10 years will balloon by $19.7 trillion.
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Examiner.com: What drives climate change on Earth?
Dr. Soon: Most of the weather and climate variations we observed are essentially related to the sun and the changing seasons - not by CO2 radiative forcing and feedback. The climate system is constantly readjusting naturally in a large way - more than we would ever see from CO2. The CO2 kick [impact of CO2 emissions] is extremely small compared to what is happening in a natural way. Within the framework of a proper study of the sun-climate connection, you don’t need CO2 to explain anything.
Examiner.com: What is your opinion of the anthropogenic (man-caused) global warming theory?
Dr. Soon: It’s never been about the science - even from the very beginning. It’s based on confusion and a mixture of ideology. We should deal only in the facts that we do know.
Examiner.com: Many of the scientists promoting the global warming theory appear to be driven by politics rather than hard scientific data. What are your thoughts?
Dr. Soon: I am a scientist. I go where the facts take me. And the facts are fairly clear. It doesn’t take very long to discover that their views [of man-caused global warming] aren’t grounded in the facts. Why would any solid science need so much promotion and advertisement and the endless shouting about how the science has all been “settled”? And now we’re supposed to believe that the growing consensus on the street that humans are not responsible for global warming is due mainly to the confusion created by climate “deniers.”
Examiner.com: Many scientists like you (often referred to as “skeptics") are ridiculed and isolated for challenging the dogma of man-made global warming. Many of your peers have been very successful in their efforts to marginalize anyone who deviates from the approved script? What is happening?
Dr. Soon: The pro-AGW supporters have become more and more confrontational in their attacks on scientists who challenge their views. For instance, Stephen Schneider [a professor of environmental studies at Stanford University], says that skeptics sell garbage and that we are playing games with science. He compares it to selling drugs and believes that we are criminals who should go to jail. Guess what? You don’t pull that sort of thing on people who know something about science.
Examiner.com: What needs to be done to combat the strong-arm tactics being used against scientists who disagree with the AGW theory?
Dr. Soon: Science needs to stand up. The AGW movement is killing science. It’s very unhealthy in many ways. They are corrupting science for material gain. It’s time for us to take back climate science.
Examiner.com: Many AGW scientists state with confidence that there is a very high probability that the earth is warming. Therefore, something must be done now to cut CO2 emissions. How accurate are their statistics?
Dr. Soon: Their probabilities are absolute crap. They are pulling these statistics out of thin air. It is completely anti-science. They talk about 90 percent probability. It sounds high, but would anyone fly in an airplane if it would crash once out of every 10 flights?
Examiner.com: The temperature data over the past eight years or so seem to indicate that we have entered a period of global cooling. Are we experiencing a cooling trend?
Dr. Soon: If you look at the data empirically, there is a cooling tendency. We’re already seeing signs. The possibility of a colder climate ahead is a very real thing.
Examiner.com: What is your opinion of Al Gore?
Dr. Soon: He’s somebody who needs to just shut-up and stop spreading nonsense. He has neither credibility on science nor moral standing.
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Washington (Jun 22)
In light of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s (D-MD) announcement this morning that House Democrats will not pass a budget this year – failing to fulfill what he has called “the most basic responsibility” of governing – the following important fiscal health warning has been issued:
THE BUDGET HAS BEEN
CANCELLED
WE REGRET TO INFORM YOU THAT
THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET
PLANNED FOR FISCAL YEAR 2011 HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO WASHINGTON DEMOCRATS’ OUT-OF-CONTROL SPENDING SPREE.
AN APOLOGY FOR THIS BETRAYAL OF AMERICAN TAXPAYERS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FORTHCOMING AT THIS TIME.
BE ADVISED THAT THE FOLLOWING SERVICES WILL BE INTERRUPTED:
Imposing the fiscal discipline economists say is needed to create jobs and boost our economy
Reining in the out-of-control spending spree that is killing American jobs
Carrying out the “most basic responsibility of governing”
Stopping middle-class tax hikes that will sock family budgets at the worst possible time
Providing the leadership on jobs and the economy that Americans say is sorely lacking
Protecting our kids and grandkids from the enormous debt burden Washington has placed on them
We reserve the right to notify you of additional consequences that may arise in light of this budget failure, which is unprecedented in the modern era. In the interim, please brace for more spending, more debt, more tax hikes, more broken promises.
For families and small businesses looking for a government that listens to the people it serves and respects their hard-earned money, House Republicans are offering better solutions to cut spending now and help small businesses put people back to work.