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Harry Reid could have tried to tell us how great February’s NSA 473,000-job pickup was. In context, it wasn’t that great at all. In fact, as you can see above, it came in lower than February 2008, when the people at the National Bureau of Economic Research say we were in the third month of an economic recession as they define it (as normal people define it, the recession didn’t begin until the third quarter of 2008). Moreover, it was 241,000 jobs lower than the February 2004-2008 average. If the employment situation were really in recovery in February, that difference would have been almost zero. Beyond that, February’s actual result using this metric was far worse than January’s, when the result only trailed the January 2004-2008 average by 72,000.
This isn’t an improvement; it’s a serious deterioration.
The only reason February’s SA number of -36,000 came in as low as it did (but still worse than January’s) is that the SA calculation took February 2009’s free-fall result into account, making it a statistically correct result that confuses more than it enlightens. Further evidence supporting that point is that the SA result for February 2010 is better than February 2008, which as already shown based on what really happened, doesn’t reflect the underlying reality.
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We're sad to say, the picture is even worse than it appears.
Take that "only 36,000" figure. The real number is actually 51,000 jobs lost, because the government counts 15,000 temporary workers hired by the Census as new jobs. But these jobs aren't, in any meaningful sense, real full-time jobs.
Would things have been better without all the snow? Undoubtedly. But we still would have lost jobs.
Then of course there's the very definition of unemployment.
If you count those who are discouraged or working part-time when they want a full-time job, the jobless rate soars to 16.8%.
Private sector employment gauges pretty much show the same thing. For instance, the pollsters at Gallup each month ask Americans questions about their employment. In February, the Gallup report shows, some 19.8% of Americans reported that they were underemployed or not employed at all.
That's one out of five workers — and even more than the 15 million unemployed estimated by the government.
What's troubling is the obliviousness of Washington to this problem — the utter cluelessness they have about the most basic economic principles that guide our economy.
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Federal Spending: It's a good thing President Obama isn't in the private sector. If he was, the budget he just put forward for the next 10 years just might get him indicted for fraud.
Of all the promises the president made during the 2008 presidential campaign and last year's budget debates, none rings so hollow now as the pledge of "fiscal responsibility."
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Spending, of course, is the big reason. As David Freddoso of the Washington Examiner points out, the budget plan submitted by the president shows spending growing each and every year over the next decade — despite the worst fiscal crisis of our nation's history.
All told, spending will swell from $3.5 trillion, or 20% of GDP, in 2009 to $5.7 trillion, or 25.2% of GDP, in 2020. Since World War II, debt has averaged 20% of GDP, so the 2020 projection represents a permanent increase of 25% in the size of government that will weigh like a millstone around the economy's neck. Spending over the next 10 years will balloon by $19.7 trillion.