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The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Pollster ()
Date: January 29, 2010 07:38AM

Presented for comment...
Attachments:
polls.jpg

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Restoninte ()
Date: January 29, 2010 01:18PM

Pollster Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Presented for comment...


Not looking good for Obama

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: eesh ()
Date: January 29, 2010 01:20PM

Why use a black line to represent Obama?


RACIST

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 01:24PM

Just remember this number folks...

Ronald Reagan
January 1983
35%


Let's see where Obama is in January 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: How the mighty have fallen ()
Date: January 29, 2010 01:28PM

Guess who wrote this about Obama's State of the Union:

“The president, we were told, spent a good deal of time in the days leading up to his State of the Union address, going over it with a fine-toothed comb, making changes and additions in longhand.

But judging from the speech, he also spent a lot of time going over the results of focus groups and polls. Indeed, the speech, despite its charm, humor, and occasionally impassioned rhetoric, had the feel of being focus-grouped within an inch of its life. There was a decidedly paint-by-poll-numbers air about it.

Focus group participants say they are concerned about the deficit? Then let's throw in a 3-year spending freeze, delivered with a populist spin. "Like any cash-strapped family," the president said, "we will work within a budget to invest in what we need and sacrifice what we don't. And if I have to enforce this discipline by veto, I will."

Sure, the freeze will actually have little impact on the multi-trillion dollar deficit, exempts budget-bloating defense spending, and, as Steve Clemons puts it, "will essentially forfeit America's growth future to China." But "spending freeze" moved the test dials – so spending freeze it is!

Remember when serious health care reform was going to be the main path to long-term budget deficits? Not anymore. Now we're going to freeze spending -- except, of course, on the wars of choice we are fighting, at a cost of $250 billion a year, in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The president and his team know that the spending freeze is little more than what The Economist's Ryan Avent calls "a bright shining gimmick." And no one in the administration could really have believed that conservatives would suddenly swoon and fall into line at the mere mention of "freezing discretionary spending."



Was it Beck? Limbaugh? Hannity????


Nope – Arianna Huffington, the leading liberal doyenne and host of the popular liberal blog, www.huffingtonpost.com.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: eesh ()
Date: January 29, 2010 01:29PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just remember this number folks...
>
> Ronald Reagan
> January 1983
> 35%
>
>
> Let's see where Obama is in January 2011.


+1

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Realist ()
Date: January 29, 2010 02:13PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just remember this number folks...
>
> Ronald Reagan
> January 1983
> 35%
>
>
> Let's see where Obama is in January 2011.


Holding out hope still?

Reagan's turnaround was miraculous (not making a statement about whether or not it was justified or a good thing). Expecting a repeat of that event would be like thinking Buster Douglass would have knocked out Mike Tyson again in a rematch. Maybe it happened once before but to hang your hopes on it happening again is unrealistic.

The problems facing Obama are much worse than what Reagan had to deal with. The economy is worse and unemployment is higher. The policies coming out of his administration are disastrous to his popularity. People don’t want healthcare reform, they don’t want cap and trade, they don’t want meddling bureaucracy.

The challenge facing Obama is that he’s not naturally a populist “fighter”. He’s more of a progressive “NPR Democrat”. He isn’t taking the Republicans or Tea Party types head on. Instead he’s trying to join the populist view by taking on Wall St but he’s coming to the fight a little late. Go back and listen to his recent speech in Ohio and count the number of times he said the word “fight”.

Will it work? Who knows. But I wouldn’t count on it.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 02:15PM

Obama's numbers are weighed down by the state of the economy. If the recovery is underway and the jobs picture improves, even marginally, his poll numbers will start to work their way back up.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: %T% ()
Date: January 29, 2010 02:20PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Obama's numbers are weighed down by the state of
> the economy. If the recovery is underway and the
> jobs picture improves, even marginally, his poll
> numbers will start to work their way back up.

I agree that if the economy improves, his poll number will go up, but there is more to his unpopularity than the economy. Support for healthcare reform is eroding week by week. His policies are holding down his popularity as well.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 02:23PM

%T% Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Obama's numbers are weighed down by the state
> of
> > the economy. If the recovery is underway and
> the
> > jobs picture improves, even marginally, his
> poll
> > numbers will start to work their way back up.
>
> I agree that if the economy improves, his poll
> number will go up, but there is more to his
> unpopularity than the economy. Support for
> healthcare reform is eroding week by week. His
> policies are holding down his popularity as well.

There was very little support for Bush's Medicare bill when it went through. Now it is popular. People hate change, despite what they say. If his health care reform passes and people see a benefit, it will be fine.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Realist ()
Date: January 29, 2010 02:31PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> %T% Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Obama's numbers are weighed down by the state
> > of
> > > the economy. If the recovery is underway and
> > the
> > > jobs picture improves, even marginally, his
> > poll
> > > numbers will start to work their way back up.
> >
> > I agree that if the economy improves, his poll
> > number will go up, but there is more to his
> > unpopularity than the economy. Support for
> > healthcare reform is eroding week by week. His
> > policies are holding down his popularity as
> well.
>
> There was very little support for Bush's Medicare
> bill when it went through. Now it is popular.
> People hate change, despite what they say. If his
> health care reform passes and people see a
> benefit, it will be fine.


The timeline is too short. You said Jan 2011 right? People won't see a benefit by then (if ever). The economy won't improve by then either.

If I had to bet I'd say his best hope is that somehow he can hold off the double-dip recession as long as possible and hope that the Republicans put up a horrible candidate like Palin.

If not- he's a one-termer. Print it.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 02:33PM

Realist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> The timeline is too short. You said Jan 2011
> right? People won't see a benefit by then (if
> ever). The economy won't improve by then either.
>
>
> If I had to bet I'd say his best hope is that
> somehow he can hold off the double-dip recession
> as long as possible and hope that the Republicans
> put up a horrible candidate like Palin.
>
> If not- he's a one-termer. Print it.


The economy will be improved enough and if health care passes in the next few months, no one will be thinking about it in a negative way in January 2011.

I'll also point out that the election of Republicans in 1994 galvanized support for Clinton in 1996. Should the Republicans take one or both houses of Congress this November, Obama will be re-elected in 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: %T% ()
Date: January 29, 2010 02:34PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There was very little support for Bush's Medicare
> bill when it went through. Now it is popular.
> People hate change, despite what they say. If his
> health care reform passes and people see a
> benefit, it will be fine.

And Bush is ever so popular. Besides, the healthcare reform effort is all but dead, so there will be no program to see a benefit from. All it did was throw another defeat at the President. He needs some victories before his numbers begin to rise.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 02:42PM

%T% Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> And Bush is ever so popular. Besides, the
> healthcare reform effort is all but dead, so there
> will be no program to see a benefit from. All it
> did was throw another defeat at the President. He
> needs some victories before his numbers begin to
> rise.


The Medicare bill was passed during Bush's first term. It didn't seem to hurt his re-election.

Obama needs to hold House Democrats' feet to the fire and have them vote for the Senate Bill. The liberal Dems from liberal districts who are bitching the most have the least to lose by doing so.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/29/2010 02:42PM by WashingTone-Locian.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Someone's reaching.... ()
Date: January 29, 2010 02:56PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Realist Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > The timeline is too short. You said Jan 2011
> > right? People won't see a benefit by then (if
> > ever). The economy won't improve by then
> either.
> >
> >
> > If I had to bet I'd say his best hope is that
> > somehow he can hold off the double-dip
> recession
> > as long as possible and hope that the
> Republicans
> > put up a horrible candidate like Palin.
> >
> > If not- he's a one-termer. Print it.
>
>
> The economy will be improved enough and if health
> care passes in the next few months, no one will be
> thinking about it in a negative way in January
> 2011.
>
> I'll also point out that the election of
> Republicans in 1994 galvanized support for Clinton
> in 1996. Should the Republicans take one or both
> houses of Congress this November, Obama will be
> re-elected in 2012.


For Straws...

You're beginning to remind me of a Redskins fan

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Date: January 29, 2010 03:05PM

Someone's reaching.... Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> >
> > I'll also point out that the election of
> > Republicans in 1994 galvanized support for
> Clinton
> > in 1996. Should the Republicans take one or
> both
> > houses of Congress this November, Obama will be
> > re-elected in 2012.
>
>
> For Straws...
>
> You're beginning to remind me of a Redskins fan


For the most part, Americans like Obama as a person. Even those who don't approve of him tend to like him. If the Republicans take over the Senate or House in 2010, they will undoubtedly over-reached, like they did in '95, and give Obama an opportunity to triangulate against them...the way Clinton did.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Restonite ()
Date: January 29, 2010 03:21PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Someone's reaching.... Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > >
> > > I'll also point out that the election of
> > > Republicans in 1994 galvanized support for
> > Clinton
> > > in 1996. Should the Republicans take one or
> > both
> > > houses of Congress this November, Obama will
> be
> > > re-elected in 2012.
> >
> >
> > For Straws...
> >
> > You're beginning to remind me of a Redskins fan
>
>
> For the most part, Americans like Obama as a
> person. Even those who don't approve of him tend
> to like him. If the Republicans take over the
> Senate or House in 2010, they will undoubtedly
> over-reached, like they did in '95, and give Obama
> an opportunity to triangulate against them...the
> way Clinton did.

That reminds me of a 9-7 team that needs 2 other teams to lose in the last week of the season to make the playoffs. He's not in control of his own destiny right now. And even if he does make it into the playoffs (wins re-election) he certainly won't make it to the Superbowl (be a successful President).

It's not that his policies have him doing the wrong thing (everybody makes a mistake now and then), but that he's doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of the right thing on issue after issue.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Vince(1) ()
Date: January 29, 2010 03:27PM

Sooner or later independents are going to have to decide which side they're on!

Registered Voter...a Big talking coward..big man on FFXU...little man in life.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Realist ()
Date: January 29, 2010 03:41PM

Vince(1) Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sooner or later independents are going to have to
> decide which side they're on!

I think they did in MA.

If they continue to side with Republicans it could be trouble for Obama. If they break off on their own and form their own party (the Tea Party??) then it will help Obama (kind of like what happened when Perot ran and helped Clinton).

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Dane Bramage ()
Date: January 29, 2010 04:53PM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> The economy will be improved enough and if health
> care passes in the next few months, no one will be
> thinking about it in a negative way in January
> 2011.
>
> I'll also point out that the election of
> Republicans in 1994 galvanized support for Clinton
> in 1996. Should the Republicans take one or both
> houses of Congress this November, Obama will be
> re-elected in 2012.


I really hope your right on the economy, but a lot of the current recovery is artificially propped up with stimulus money that ends at that time.

I also agree with your second point. If the Republicans do really well in November, the blame will shift to them. The approval rating for Congress is even lower than the President's. And as it should be since they're so inept due to their self interest and dogmatic party-line stances.

The SOTU was compared to Reagan's when he faced similar challenges. What saved him was his oratory skills and a turn around in the economy. The economy is worse, artificially propped up and may not turn around in enough time for him.

Plus he has to contend with idiotic Pelosi.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: WTL(1) ()
Date: January 31, 2010 09:53AM

WashingTone-Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just remember this number folks...
>
> Ronald Reagan
> January 1983
> 35%
>

Either you or the graph is incorrect.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Tim45 ()
Date: January 31, 2010 12:13PM

It is almost a given if the economy is up then the current office holder will get a favorable rating. However Obama cannot stimulate the economy when he talks about CEOs making too much money and how the government should step in and regulate them.

That is the job of the shareholders of the given corporations. While I agree that some of the bank CEOs are not entitled to huge cash bonuses I would be more afraid of the government regulating who gets what salary. It opens the door to corruption and favoritism.

I think our last twenty years of choices for president have been lukewarm at best. I believe we need a leader that has business experience. Being a lifelong politician and then President insulates a person from what it takes to stay within a budget while still delivering a service to the people.

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Re: The Definitive Comparative Obama Poll
Posted by: Steve Wilhite(1) ()
Date: January 31, 2010 03:27PM

In January 2011 Obama will be vying for John Edwards, another stalwart Democrat politician by the way, at the all-time low of 15% popularity. Even Obama's sychophantic media won't be able to cover for him then. He has been exposed for what he is: an empty suit.

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