HomeFairfax General ForumArrest/Ticket SearchWiki newPictures/VideosChatArticlesLinksAbout
Off-Topic :  Fairfax Underground fairfax underground logo
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: jhey ()
Date: September 24, 2009 09:45AM

The Dow is closing in on 10,000. Does anyone think it'll be there by the beginning of next month?

I'll guess that it will not.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/24/2009 09:46AM by jhey.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Date: September 24, 2009 10:01AM

It may hit 10,000, but October has been historically bad for the Dow, so I would expect it to be back down into the mid 9,000s (at least) by the end of October.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ITRADE ()
Date: September 24, 2009 10:17AM

October is indeed a sour month historically.

I concerned about the P/E ratios on a lot of companies. Very overblown.

I am VERY concerned about the very noticeable uptick in "insider" sales in August and September. If the train was going to run for a long distance, you'd think many insiders would hold or increase their positions. They're not...

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Date: September 24, 2009 10:25AM

ITRADE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> October is indeed a sour month historically.
>
> I concerned about the P/E ratios on a lot of
> companies. Very overblown.
>
> I am VERY concerned about the very noticeable
> uptick in "insider" sales in August and September.
> If the train was going to run for a long
> distance, you'd think many insiders would hold or
> increase their positions. They're not...



It's typical. The insiders have been backing out of their positions while the idiots on E-Trade bolster the market. Once the unemployment and earnings reports hit, the bike store managers who think they are part-time day traders are going to lose their shirts. In the meantime, informed investors will sit on the sideline and will either hold or roll back in based on the holiday sales figures.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ITRADE ()
Date: September 24, 2009 10:29AM

Yah, I moved about 2/3 of my equity positions back into guaranteed fund positions about a week ago. I expect a drop down to about 9000 relatively soon.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: Lurker. ()
Date: September 24, 2009 10:33AM

Last report I heard is that the dollar will move lower so that will bring the DOW back down. The problem is the we need to restore the view of the US economy overseas.

Lots of foriegn lenders got burned over the past four years. Until foriegn lenders return, the US economy will be weak.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ITRADE ()
Date: September 24, 2009 10:36AM

The weak dollar does have one bright side - domestic investment by foreign entities in US production facilities. A weakened dollar allows for companies to see US labor and manufacturing costs as being relatively cheap - cheap to the point that transportation costs inherent in shipping goods from, say, China or Indonesia, wash out any benefits derived from production costs advantages in those countries. Companies like IKEA have actually started production facilities here in the US to eliminate cost burdens and to ease the distribution process.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: Regis-turd Voter ()
Date: September 24, 2009 11:47AM

IKEA makes me wet

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: tug boat ()
Date: September 24, 2009 12:06PM

ITRADE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> October is indeed a sour month historically.
>
> I concerned about the P/E ratios on a lot of
> companies. Very overblown.
>
> I am VERY concerned about the very noticeable
> uptick in "insider" sales in August and September.
> If the train was going to run for a long
> distance, you'd think many insiders would hold or
> increase their positions. They're not...

Recent insider sales are likely margin calls or acute liquidity related. Which companies are you referring to?

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: pgens ()
Date: September 24, 2009 12:54PM

ITRADE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> October is indeed a sour month historically.

So is the saying "sell in May and go away," and had you done that this year you would have missed a 50% runup. That said, I agree that things are overblown and one should be shaving profits off on the way up and put them into things that aren't directly tied to the S&P movements, or at least to the degree the S&P moves. Put in some protective bear trades so you can both participate in runups, protect what you have in, and not lose so much if things turn south very quickly.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ITRADE ()
Date: September 24, 2009 01:01PM

How about this...I went "full in" at 7000.....Sure I missed 6,500 but I'll gladly take the run up from 7,000 to 9,700 when I bailed.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ITRADE ()
Date: September 24, 2009 01:05PM

tug boat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ITRADE Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > October is indeed a sour month historically.
> >
> > I concerned about the P/E ratios on a lot of
> > companies. Very overblown.
> >
> > I am VERY concerned about the very noticeable
> > uptick in "insider" sales in August and
> September.
> > If the train was going to run for a long
> > distance, you'd think many insiders would hold
> or
> > increase their positions. They're not...
>
> Recent insider sales are likely margin calls or
> acute liquidity related. Which companies are you
> referring to?


Look at stocks like Microsoft, GE, US Steel, Nucor Steel, Yahoo, US Airways, etc. Most all transactions in the past 30-60 days have been exercising options or sales.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Date: September 24, 2009 01:38PM

ITRADE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Look at stocks like Microsoft, GE, US Steel, Nucor
> Steel, Yahoo, US Airways, etc. Most all
> transactions in the past 30-60 days have been
> exercising options or sales.


Considering that options have probably been underwater for so long, it could be due, in part, to the liquidity thing. You probably have a lot of senior managers who have been waiting for their options to hit the target price.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: pgens ()
Date: September 24, 2009 01:40PM

ITRADE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How about this...I went "full in" at 7000.....Sure
> I missed 6,500 but I'll gladly take the run up
> from 7,000 to 9,700 when I bailed.


I didn't go all-in at any point, I focus on incrementally buying on the way down and selling on the way up as a general practice. But yeah, once it had gone down that much it turned out to be a good point. Trying to catch an absolute bottom is a fool's game, catching a near-bottom is just as good.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: Gravis ()
Date: September 24, 2009 02:35PM

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree that things are overblown and one should be
> shaving profits off on the way up and put them...


at first glance i thought you wrote "one should be shaving armpits"

file.php?40,file=3517
"the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish."095042938540

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: pgens ()
Date: October 14, 2009 05:45PM

The DJIA closed above 10,000 today... still in October, but not by October 1. I didn't expect to see 10,000 by the end of the year, much less by mid-October. I guess we can thank Alcoa for starting earnings season off right!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Date: October 15, 2009 11:18AM

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The DJIA closed above 10,000 today... still in
> October, but not by October 1. I didn't expect to
> see 10,000 by the end of the year, much less by
> mid-October. I guess we can thank Alcoa for
> starting earnings season off right!


Moody's is putting out good economic numbers for several metro areas in the Midwest. The market may hang around in this area for a while. I thought it might drop in October, but maybe it won't. Hmmmm. What to do?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://bible.cc/1_corinthians/13-11.htm

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: ferfux ()
Date: October 15, 2009 11:47AM

"There is currently no fundamental reason supporting a price rise and the path back to $100 per barrel will be a long and protracted one," analysts at JBC Energy in Vienna said in a note to clients.

"Poor oil fundamentals, including 6 million b/d of OPEC spare capacity, a massive middle distillates stock surplus and terrible refining margins will keep the upside potential in check," JBC said

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Dow 10K by October 1
Posted by: trogdor! ()
Date: October 16, 2009 08:05AM

I think I predicted we'd be at 6,500 or so by the end of September.

Maybe I should have given myself a few more months on that prediction.....

Options: ReplyQuote


Your Name: 
Your Email (Optional): 
Subject: 
Attach a file
  • No file can be larger than 75 MB
  • All files together cannot be larger than 300 MB
  • 30 more file(s) can be attached to this message
Spam prevention:
Please, enter the code that you see below in the input field. This is for blocking bots that try to post this form automatically.
 ********  **    **  **    **  **      **   *******  
    **     ***   **  ***   **  **  **  **  **     ** 
    **     ****  **  ****  **  **  **  **  **        
    **     ** ** **  ** ** **  **  **  **  ********  
    **     **  ****  **  ****  **  **  **  **     ** 
    **     **   ***  **   ***  **  **  **  **     ** 
    **     **    **  **    **   ***  ***    *******  
This forum powered by Phorum.