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Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Posted by: Nate Silver ()
Date: October 24, 2016 08:23AM

"The charts below — which are based on 20,000 simulations from our model as of Friday afternoon — attempt to explain this by laying out four broad scenarios:

1) A Trump win, including cases where he loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.

2) A narrow Clinton win, wherein she wins the Electoral College, but wins the popular vote by 3 percentage points or less. (Or wins the Electoral College and loses the popular vote.)

3) A Clinton win in the “Obama zone,” wherein she wins the popular vote by 4 to 7 percentage points — the margins by which President Obama won the elections in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Clinton is all but certain to win the Electoral College if she wins the popular vote by this amount.

4) Finally, a Clinton blowout, wherein she wins the popular vote by 8 points or more, which would almost certainly also yield a dominant performance in the Electoral College."

Attachments:
silver-electionupdate-1021-11.png

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Re: Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Posted by: I am Ready! ()
Date: October 24, 2016 12:22PM

Wooooohhhhhooooo!



There's a 13 - 16% chance that Trump will eek out a tiny little victory.

There's an 84 - 87% chance that Trump will weeping like a little bitch during his concession speech at 9:00 PM EST on November 8, 2016.

I like them odds!

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Re: Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Posted by: Paul Ryan Writein ()
Date: October 24, 2016 10:43PM

Write in Paul Ryan to deny both Hillary and Donald any claim that Americans like them.

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Re: Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Posted by: Gerrymanderer2 ()
Date: October 24, 2016 11:33PM

I am Ready! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>

Wooooohhhhhooooo!


>
> There's a 13 - 16% chance that Trump will eek out
> a tiny little victory.
>
> There's an 84 - 87% chance that Trump will weeping
> like a little bitch during his concession speech
> at 9:00 PM EST on November 8, 2016.
>
> I like them odds!

He's gonna keep the American people in "suspense."

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