HomeFairfax General ForumArrest/Ticket SearchWiki newPictures/VideosChatArticlesLinksAbout
Off-Topic :  Fairfax Underground fairfax underground logo
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Annonomeister ()
Date: August 09, 2016 11:52AM

"We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it all sound like rigorous analysis instead of magical thinking.

If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound a little exasperated — it’s probably because we went through this four years ago. Remember UnSkewedPolls.com? (The website is defunct, but you can view an archived picture of it here.) The main contention of that site and others like it was that the polls had too many Democratic respondents in their samples. Dean Chambers, who ran the site, regularly wrote that the polls were vastly undercounting independents and should have used a higher proportion of Republicans in their samples. But in the end, the polls underestimated President Obama’s margin.

Now the unskewers are back, again insisting that pollsters are “using” more Democrats than they should, and that the percentage of Democrats and Republicans should be equal, or that there should be more Republicans. They point to surveys like the recent one from ABC News and The Washington Post, in which 33 percent of registered voters identified as Democrats compared to 27 percent as Republicans. That poll found Hillary Clinton ahead by 8 percentage points.

But let’s say this plainly: The polls are not “skewed.” They weren’t in 2012, and they aren’t now."


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: hwxinj ()
Date: August 09, 2016 12:19PM

.
Attachments:
CkoX1LbUkAECNu1.jpg-large

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Fear ()
Date: August 09, 2016 12:23PM

hwxinj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> .

Attachments:
Fear_2.jpg

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Homos 4 Hillary Unite!!!! ()
Date: August 09, 2016 01:31PM

Annonomeister Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TL:DR

^^^^^ 538.com. LOL. Moron.

Isn't Nate Silver the guy who gave Trump 4% chance of winning the GOP nomination in Feb? Why yes, yes he it.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: carl has the REAL numbers ()
Date: August 09, 2016 01:48PM


Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Gerrymanderer2 ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:10PM

The reason Rove was resisting is because he knows the single conflicting call from Fox News in 2000 helped justify stealing that election with the Supreme Court.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Gerrymanderer2 ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:14PM

Megan Kelly is such an airhead in that video.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: like a rabid dog ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:23PM

Gerrymanderer2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Megan Kelly is such an airhead in that video.


for some reason Donald Trump starts seething with anger at the mere sight of her. She makes him incredibly angry and hostile.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Gerrymanderer2 ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:28PM

He doesn't like women with blood coming out of their wherever.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: DEM butthurt starts 11/08/16 ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:38PM

Homos 4 Hillary Unite!!!! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Annonomeister Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TL:DR
>
> ^^^^^ 538.com. LOL. Moron.
>
> Isn't Nate Silver the guy who gave Trump 4% chance
> of winning the GOP nomination in Feb? Why yes,
> yes he it.


It was 2% a year ago.

CpbiCEFUEAEha0l.jpg

LoLz!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: 3E7 ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:45PM

The election is bought and paid for by the corporate-media-political complex. Because they don't control enough of our lives already.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Conserva-tards! ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:45PM

DEM butthurt starts 11/08/16 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Homos 4 Hillary Unite!!!! Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Isn't Nate Silver the guy who gave Trump 4%
> chance
> > of winning the GOP nomination in Feb? Why yes,
> > yes he it.
>
> It was 2% a year ago.

Nate was nearly spot-on with Hillary @ 85%.

> LoLz!

Indeed.

Conserva-tards!

LoLz!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: I'll say when it's over ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:48PM

At the end of July in 1988, Michael Dukakis lead Bush by 17 points. How'd that turn out for President Dukakis? And Dukakis was a likeable candidate.

Clinton is most definitely ahead. But there's plenty of time for Trump to turn this around. But he's got to stay off the twitter and stop attacking nobodies and stay focused on Clinton. Clinton is what we called a target rich environment in Desert Storm. Trump just needs to strike and stop going off and bombing the surrogates who would be forgotten if Trump ignored them.

Trump should also politely attack the media every time they bait him. He needs to point out all the overt partisan shit they do and ask why they seem so bias to the vast majority of people (just point to the polls).

As everyone where knows, Trump's worst enemy is Trump. Stay on message and he will win. Go off on petty tangents and lose.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Still batting oh for forever ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:50PM

Conserva-tards! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DEM butthurt starts 11/08/16 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Homos 4 Hillary Unite!!!! Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Isn't Nate Silver the guy who gave Trump 4%
> > chance
> > > of winning the GOP nomination in Feb? Why
> yes,
> > > yes he it.
> >
> > It was 2% a year ago.
>
> Nate was nearly spot-on with Hillary @ 85%.
>
> > LoLz!
>
> Indeed.
>
> Conserva-tards!
>
> LoLz!


 
Attachments:
kill yourself4.gif

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Conserva-tards! ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:54PM

I'll say when it's over Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dukakis was a likeable candidate.

Dukakis made many mistakes and his team sucked.

That won't be the case w/Hillary.

> Clinton is most definitely ahead. But there's
> plenty of time for Trump to turn this around. But
> he's got to stay off the twitter and stop
> attacking nobodies and stay focused on Clinton.
> Clinton is what we called a target rich
> environment in Desert Storm. Trump just needs to
> strike and stop going off and bombing the
> surrogates who would be forgotten if Trump ignored
> them.

Clearly, the man simply cannot ignore 'shiny objects' and is incapable of focusing on Hillary. He's has the attention span of a child...

> Trump should also politely attack the media every
> time they bait him.

He's too busy taking the bait...

> As everyone where knows, Trump's worst enemy is
> Trump. Stay on message and he will win.

Nope.

> Go off on petty tangents and lose.

Yep.

Conserva-tards!

Lolz!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Fat~Bottom~Girl ()
Date: August 09, 2016 02:55PM

Conserva-tards! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DEM butthurt starts 11/08/16 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Homos 4 Hillary Unite!!!! Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Isn't Nate Silver the guy who gave Trump 4%
> > chance
> > > of winning the GOP nomination in Feb? Why
> yes,
> > > yes he it.
> >
> > It was 2% a year ago.
>
> Nate was nearly spot-on with Hillary @ 85%.

No he wasn't. If he had said 100%, he'd have been right picking the winner. Being off by 15 points sucks.

And if he'd said 60%, he'd have correctly predicted the amount of delegates she got (of course, that was rigged by supers and dnc vote-fraud). Being off by 25 points sucks even worse.


>
> > LoLz!
>
> Indeed.
>
> Conserva-tards!
>
> LoLz!


You're a fucking moron. Indeed. LoLz!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Conserva-tards! ()
Date: August 09, 2016 03:34PM

Fat~Bottom~Girl Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Conserva-tards! Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Nate was nearly spot-on with Hillary @ 85%.
>
> No he wasn't.

Yes, he was. See the photo below.

> LoLz!

Indeed.

Conserva-tards!

LoLz!

Attachments:
CpbiCEFUEAEha0l.jpg

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Official FFU FIFYer ()
Date: August 09, 2016 03:58PM

Conserva-tards! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fat~Bottom~Girl Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Conserva-tards! Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Nate was nearly spot-on with Hillary @ 85%.
> >
> > No he wasn't.
>
> Yes, he was. See the photo below. I shall ignore everything you wrote and just repost a pic that was already posted five posts above.
>

FIFY

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Conserva-tards! ()
Date: August 09, 2016 04:01PM

Official FFU FIFYer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I shall repost a pic that was already posted
> five posts above.

Which shows that Nate had Hillary @ 85%.

Conserva-tards!

LoLz!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
Posted by: Gerrytarded ()
Date: April 12, 2019 05:56PM

Annonomeister Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "We’ve reached that stage of the campaign.
> The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and
> the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the
> quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply
> adjust the polls to get results more to their
> liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words
> to make it all sound like rigorous analysis
> instead of magical thinking.
>
> If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound
> a little exasperated — it’s probably because
> we went through this four years ago. Remember
> UnSkewedPolls.com? (The website is defunct, but
> you can view an archived picture of it here.) The
> main contention of that site and others like it
> was that the polls had too many Democratic
> respondents in their samples. Dean Chambers, who
> ran the site, regularly wrote that the polls were
> vastly undercounting independents and should have
> used a higher proportion of Republicans in their
> samples. But in the end, the polls underestimated
> President Obama’s margin.
>
> Now the unskewers are back, again insisting that
> pollsters are “using” more Democrats than they
> should, and that the percentage of Democrats and
> Republicans should be equal, or that there should
> be more Republicans. They point to surveys like
> the recent one from ABC News and The Washington
> Post, in which 33 percent of registered voters
> identified as Democrats compared to 27 percent as
> Republicans. That poll found Hillary Clinton ahead
> by 8 percentage points.
>
> But let’s say this plainly: The polls are not
> “skewed.” They weren’t in 2012, and they
> aren’t now."

>
> http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-aren
> t-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

Yes we can!!!!!

Options: ReplyQuote


Your Name: 
Your Email (Optional): 
Subject: 
Attach a file
  • No file can be larger than 75 MB
  • All files together cannot be larger than 300 MB
  • 30 more file(s) can be attached to this message
Spam prevention:
Please, enter the code that you see below in the input field. This is for blocking bots that try to post this form automatically.
 **     **  **     **  ********  ********  ******** 
 ***   ***   **   **      **        **     **       
 **** ****    ** **       **        **     **       
 ** *** **     ***        **        **     ******   
 **     **    ** **       **        **     **       
 **     **   **   **      **        **     **       
 **     **  **     **     **        **     ******** 
This forum powered by Phorum.