Home mortgage rates are the lowest EVER. If you rent and have thought about buying a home, this is probably the best time ever. I will probably refinance.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Home mortgage rates are the lowest EVER. If you
> rent and have thought about buying a home, this is
> probably the best time ever. I will probably
> refinance.

Home prices have further to fall. Please disregard the advice above.

Please Don't Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone Locian Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Home mortgage rates are the lowest EVER. If you
> > rent and have thought about buying a home, this
> is
> > probably the best time ever. I will probably
> > refinance.
>
> Home prices have further to fall. Please
> disregard the advice above.


Seriously, how much more do you think prices are going to drop? At the same time, interest rates aren't going to stay at this level forever.

I think when the market starts to come back around, it is going to come back around quickly. That means house prices firming up and interest rates back over 6%.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:

>
> Seriously, how much more do you think prices are
> going to drop?

I'm holding out until at least the mass riots/lootings have past and we're just dealing with the 'civil disturbances' before I purchase.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Home mortgage rates are the lowest EVER. If you
> rent and have thought about buying a home, this is
> probably the best time ever. I will probably
> refinance.


Home Mortgages - 4.75%! -

With whom??

How many points?

walkman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone Locian Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Home mortgage rates are the lowest EVER. If you
> > rent and have thought about buying a home, this
> is
> > probably the best time ever. I will probably
> > refinance.
>
>
> Home Mortgages - 4.75%! -
>
> With whom??


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123750531250489895.html

If you go to the trouble of looking at the source the WSJ article is using, you find a single note about that rate, attributed as the lowest in a range and in the state of Mississippi. So forget that one for our purposes in NoVA.

The national average (according to Zillow, the source used by the WSJ article) is currently 5.04%, with 20%+ down and a credit score of 680 or better.

A rate is only part of the equation... one needs to know the points and other fees that may make the deal more expensive than another loan with a higher rate but no fees and points.

Very true, people just gotta do their homework. If you can move yourself down a percentage point or more, and don't plan on moving within the next few years, it can be a good idea. If you have the room in equity most places can let you roll any closing costs/points into the mortgage itself. In most cases it can pay for itself in a couple years.

I was just offered 4.875% on a refi from Fifth/Third Bank. If you are renting now and plan to hold your new home purchase for a decent length of time, a 4.875% mortgage, plus Obama's $8,000 for first time home buyers (which is defined as not owning a home in the last three years), will still be cheaper in the long run than waiting for prices to drop another 10% but getting a 6%+ rate. I haven't done the math to prove this or find the breakeven point.

Does anybody know if all banks have stringent value to debt ratios for refinancing? I'm sitting at 6%, just bought my place a year ago, and looking to possibly refinance. I haven't received an official assessment yet, and all I can really go off is what my builder is offering for the same floor plan as mine, and what a guy two streets down is asking for theirs.

I've already spoken to one bank and they stated that they would only lend 90% of my value, because I live in a "recessed area". Does anybody think my current lender would be interested in refinancing even if my value may be almost equal to the balance of my mortgage? My credit score is good to excellent and I've never been behind on my payments. Thanks.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you go to the trouble of looking at the source
> the WSJ article is using, you find a single note
> about that rate, attributed as the lowest in a
> range and in the state of Mississippi. So forget
> that one for our purposes in NoVA.
>
> The national average (according to Zillow, the
> source used by the WSJ article) is currently
> 5.04%, with 20%+ down and a credit score of 680 or
> better.
>
> A rate is only part of the equation... one needs
> to know the points and other fees that may make
> the deal more expensive than another loan with a
> higher rate but no fees and points.


Lenders are desparate. If you have a good credit score and want to buy a home, they aren't going to jack you with extra fees and points. They just want to process loans.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/21/2009 02:05PM by WashingToneLocian.

Just Curious Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does anybody know if all banks have stringent
> value to debt ratios for refinancing? I'm sitting
> at 6%, just bought my place a year ago, and
> looking to possibly refinance. I haven't received
> an official assessment yet, and all I can really
> go off is what my builder is offering for the same
> floor plan as mine, and what a guy two streets
> down is asking for theirs.
>
> I've already spoken to one bank and they stated
> that they would only lend 90% of my value, because
> I live in a "recessed area". Does anybody think my
> current lender would be interested in refinancing
> even if my value may be almost equal to the
> balance of my mortgage? My credit score is good to
> excellent and I've never been behind on my
> payments. Thanks.


Unless you put 20% down, I would imagine your property may not appraise at your loan level.

WashingToneLocian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unless you put 20% down, I would imagine your
> property may not appraise at your loan level.

And I think therein lies my problem. I didn't, and I'm thinking I just don't have the room to work with to appeal to anybody. If that's the case, I may just have to wait till things rebound and/or I have a decent amount of equity.

Even at 5% I'd be saving a couple hundred a month. But I guess I should look at the bright side, I have no problems making my payments now. And maybe when the market gets better, I can feel a bit more warm and fuzzy about my 6%. Oh well...

We locked in at 4.75 in late dec 08 on a refi. Settled in Feb, no points, Wells Fargo.
You snooze, you lose.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/23/2009 10:36AM by 496.

496 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We locked in at 4.75 in late dec 08 on a refi.
> Settled in Feb, no points, Wells Fargo.
> You snooze, you lose.


I just signed up for the Wells Fargo rate alert. We'll see what happens.

Further evidence the housing market has found a floor and is starting to build back...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29836355/

Seriously, if you sit on your hands, you are an idiot.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Further evidence the housing market has found a
> floor and is starting to build back...
>
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/29836355/
>
> Seriously, if you sit on your hands, you are an
> idiot.

Did you read the article you posted?

"While it's good to see sales go up, it's more important to see inventories go down. When that happens, only then can you start to talk about a housing correction,'' he said.

The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million from the 3.61 million overstock reported in January. That represented a 9.7 month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from January.

YOU, SIR, ARE AN IDIOT

Proofreader Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2
> percent to 3.80 million from the 3.61 million
> overstock reported in January. That represented a
> 9.7 month supply at the current sales pace,
> unchanged from January.
>
> YOU, SIR, ARE AN IDIOT

I did read it. It is a moot point.

When the inventories go down, prices will start going up. This IS the bottom.

The poster is right in that you have to look at where the sales were. About half were short sales and foreclosed home sales in California and Nevada, and prices still slipped even though those sales made the national rate of unit sales go up. I'm not saying that a bottom is not here, but I am saying that there is not evidence yet that it is a sustainable national trend.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The poster is right in that you have to look at
> where the sales were. About half were short sales
> and foreclosed home sales in California and
> Nevada, and prices still slipped even though those
> sales made the national rate of unit sales go up.
> I'm not saying that a bottom is not here, but I am
> saying that there is not evidence yet that it is a
> sustainable national trend.


Yes, but sales were up in all four regions (including ours). You're not buying a national home. You are buying a house in NoVA. NoVA doesn't have the unemployment problems of California and Nevada, but it has the decline in prices and the low interest rates.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Proofreader Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > The inventory of existing homes for sale rose
> 5.2
> > percent to 3.80 million from the 3.61 million
> > overstock reported in January. That represented
> a
> > 9.7 month supply at the current sales pace,
> > unchanged from January.
> >
> > YOU, SIR, ARE AN IDIOT
>
> I did read it. It is a moot point.
>
> When the inventories go down, prices will start
> going up. This IS the bottom.

BUT, inventories are UP. This is really not that hard to understand.

I'm beginning to think WTL is in the rel estate biz and shamelessly pumping real estate for a profit.

Proofreader Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone Locian Wrote:

> >
> > When the inventories go down, prices will start
> > going up. This IS the bottom.
>
> BUT, inventories are UP. This is really not that
> hard to understand.


I'm not saying inventories are down. I am saying that when inventories start going down, prices will already be on their way up and so will interest rates. That's why you should consider buying now while rates and prices are near their lows.

Also, as I pointed out, NoVA isn't indicative of the national real estate market. It ain't California or Nevada or Michigan or Ohio. With $1 trillion in stimulus about to hit, which part of the country do you expect to see the benefits first?? NoVA!

Commander Salamander Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm beginning to think WTL is in the rel estate
> biz and shamelessly pumping real estate for a
> profit.


I don't work in real estate. But I have been through enough slumps to know that we are at the bottom of this one. If you sit around waiting for prices to drop another 20%, as some people are claiming, you are going to miss out. Interest rates have virtually never been this low. You are starting to see hints of inflation with energy and producer prices. Rates could easily be up 1 percent or more in a very short amount of time.

\



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/26/2012 01:38PM by Alias.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don't work in real estate. But I have been
> through enough slumps to know that we are at the
> bottom of this one. If you sit around waiting for
> prices to drop another 20%, as some people are
> claiming, you are going to miss out.


Riiiggghhhtttt, like in the example I give below. NICE! SPOT ON! Just so other viewers know, the Dow closed at 8,378.95 that day and did not go below 8000 that day. But it did proceed to drop to 6440, 23%, from WTL's "priced-in recession bottom."

So the moral of the story kids is when someone tells you "the bottom is in" or you hear the words "it's priced in!" don't believe it. The same goes with this housing market. Following Mister "I know bottoms when I see them" would have caused an additional 23% drop in your portfolio had you taken his sage advice (wow, I'd gladly "miss out" on that opportunity!), and plenty of analysts are calling for further declines in housing prices. Wait until a firm bounce in prices are in and THEN buy.


---------------------

Re: Guess How low the Stock Market will Go?
Posted by: WashingToneLocian ()
Date: October 24, 2008 10:53AM

I'm guessing the floor is 8,000. I think intra-day it will go below 8,000, but will rebound before the end of the day.

It has already lost about 40% of its value from the high. I think a lot of the recession talk is already factored in.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/25/2009 08:14AM by pgens.

The moral of the story is to buy a house and not to sell at the bottom of the market. You will note that the Dow is already on its way back to the 8,000 level....because the Recession is priced in.

The drops you had seen since Obama was Inaugurated was uncertainty over his plans. But now that Wall Street feels better about those plans, the Dow is correcting back to where it adjusted for the Recession.

lol

In reference to the housing market...

The report “is another faint but nonetheless encouraging sign that the economic slide may be moderating,” wrote David Resler, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities.

“I’m hopeful the worst is over,” said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. “I don’t think we’re quite out of the woods either. I think we will bounce around a bottom for a month or two.”

“We are prepared to hazard the view that the post-Lehman meltdown is now over and the market is stabilizing,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “That’s not the same as a recovery, but it is better than continued declines in sales.”


Translation...we are at the bottom.

I was going to let the report quotes go, but I just couldn't let them stand because they are so incredibly misleading. A busted clock is right twice a day so ONE of these reports will eventually be right, but the February report doesn't tell us squat.


The report showed a rise in unit sales in February with a 15.5% decline in year-over-year prices. February ALWAYS sells more than January. The report wasn't news at all, it just showed it is possible to find buyers when the prices get low enough, which isn't rocket science.

WOAH, someone from the National Association of Homebuilders is "hopeful" the worst is over? He has probably been hopeful for at least 24 months now because he knows we have to get through all the short sales, foreclosures, and existing homes before he starts to sell anything!

Let's go back a year to the March 2008(!) existing home sales report, which is here:

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/03/existing-home+sales+rise+in+february

Guess what... it rose in February! By 2.9%! The bottom is in!! Notable quote from report: "As inventories are drawn down, prices in many markets should go positive later this year.” LOL! And the price decline year-over-year was only 8.2% in that case. This time is was 15.5%!


Let's go to January 2008 (fourteen months ago), with a report with a National Association of Realtors forecast (good for your quotes so I'll use them as examples too):

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/01/pshi_jan08_stable_existing_home_sales

That was written in January 2008. Now read what you wrote earlier in this thread. Sounds the same? Maybe a little optimistic? This is why one needs to identify an upward trend before buying, not a perfectly normal seasonal uptick from January to February that happens every year.

Here is another one from the same bunch, dated March 2008:

http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2008/03/existing-home-sales-report-february.html

And some truly precious quotes from it:

"NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun now optimistically predicts that there will be a “notable” gain in existing home sales as new FHA limits and other government bailout plans work to “unleash” pent-up demand." LOL!

"We’re not expecting a notable gain in existing-home sales until the second half of this year, but the improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing" LOL!


You can't rely on the home sales industry to give anything but a smoke-up-the-ass viewpoint. One has to look at the houses he or she is interested in locally and track prices monthly to see if there is a general uptrend in price and downtrend in time on market. Basing a homebuying decision on NAR's never-changing view of bottom-timing (always "soon!") is absolutely foolish.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/25/2009 09:00PM by pgens.

Now that we are past the seasonal February bump-up, we are back on track to move lower, with a new batch of foreclosed homes entering the market. The backlog of moratorium foreclosures are now being worked on now that moratoriums are expiring.

It is impossible and just not sensible to call "bottoms" in the housing market until employment gets back to regular levels. That isn't estimated to happen until well into 2010, and the housing market will continue to slump until those numbers turn.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/30223945

"From various foreclosure-related reports, the paper noted that foreclosure sales have been edging up this year and that foreclosure-related filings increased within the last two months.

The newspaper also said that the backlog of seriously delinquent loans has been growing and that the delays caused while the moratoriums were in place have only increased the amount of interest and fees borrowers owe."

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Now that we are past the seasonal February
> bump-up, we are back on track to move lower, with
> a new batch of foreclosed homes entering the
> market. The backlog of moratorium foreclosures
> are now being worked on now that moratoriums are
> expiring.
>
> It is impossible and just not sensible to call
> "bottoms" in the housing market until employment
> gets back to regular levels. That isn't estimated
> to happen until well into 2010, and the housing
> market will continue to slump until those numbers
> turn.
>
>
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/30223945
>
> "From various foreclosure-related reports, the
> paper noted that foreclosure sales have been
> edging up this year and that foreclosure-related
> filings increased within the last two months.
>
> The newspaper also said that the backlog of
> seriously delinquent loans has been growing and
> that the delays caused while the moratoriums were
> in place have only increased the amount of
> interest and fees borrowers owe."


suit yourself. Right now you have a historic bottom in interest rates and a near bottom in housing prices. I guess you can wait and hope the spike in gas prices over the summer won't amount to higher interest rates in the belief that housing prices will drop enough to offset savings you would have had with lower rates.

Gas prices amounting to higher interest rates... not sure I get that.

Gas prices are off topic for the thread, but this is your thread and I will continue the thought. This week the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its prediction that summer gasoline prices will top in the $2.20's, way lower than the $4+ of last summer. I'm not going to refinance my house or buy a new one to offset gas going up thirty cents, and I doubt unemployed people will do that either. Gasoline prices remain low because of low domestic (and worldwide) economic production, which will also cause housing sales (and pricing) to remaining flat or decline as more people lose their jobs and default on mortgage payments.

http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/longisland/ny-bzgas1512651761apr14,0,7266570.story

Housing prices are much lower than they were, that is obvious. But your original post prompts people to buy in late March and you subsequently make these unsupported "bottom" calls based on your "feelings." I prefer to deal in facts and have well supported my arguments with documentation. So yes, I will "suit myself" with research and facts. I'd rather wait and buy a house a few months after solid bottoming indications are made and maintained. That way one is making a more educated call as to when the prices are best and will not get better, rather than guessing before the true bottom and suffering further erosion in the value of your purchase.

Gas prices go up. Rising energy costs contribute to rising prices across the economy. Fed threatens to stem inflation by tightening rates. In anticipation, all rates drift up, including mortgage rates.

It's the way the economy works.

As for "the facts," the bulk of the foreclosures have already gone through in NoVA. What few remain have already been factored into the market price. While there may be some softening of prices, it is very unlikely that decline will be sufficient to risk the opportunity cost of not buying at current mortgage rates.

But then again, suit yourself. I was merely pointing out that mortgage rates aren't going to get much lower and that the market was most likely near the bottom.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As for "the facts," the bulk of the foreclosures
> have already gone through in NoVA. What few remain
> have already been factored into the market price.
> While there may be some softening of prices, it is
> very unlikely that decline will be sufficient to
> risk the opportunity cost of not buying at current
> mortgage rates.
>

The "bulk of foreclosures" are primarily FHA. There are still thousands of conventional loans that banks are holding and offering up for sale slowly so they don't go under from the massive write-offs.

The low interest rate mortgages only apply to government backed loans. Credit scores have to be exceptional. Some conventional loans are going for 5% with a couple points, but the average is 6% - 6.5% with at least one point.

Further, conventional short loans - especially on homes with an upside down mortgage are slow and cumbersome. Expect upwards to 5-6 months to complete the paperwork.

With such a large inventory of unsold homes that will be mortgaged with conventional loans, to even presume values will not continue to decline is purely speculative. Financial adivsors and realtors are predicting as much as a 20% decline in value by year end when (hopefully) the market turns around.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gas prices go up. Rising energy costs contribute
> to rising prices across the economy. Fed threatens
> to stem inflation by tightening rates.

The Fed isn't going to touch rates until there is a threat of inflation, and that will not happen until the economy starts rebounding. Using your "theories" the Fed would have blown rates through the roof when energy prices spiked last year. But the Fed doesn't use energy in its inflation numbers, they use core inflation which excludes food and energy. Instead they brought rates down to as close to zero as they could without going under.

And I didn't even bring up what Junes did which is totally correct, that banks are trickling properties out so they don't flood the market even more.

I know the facts and the actual numbers surrounding the environment disagree with your "always correct feelings" but there it is. Wishes, hopes and "feelings" are as helpful as your Oct 2008 Dow 8000 bottom call, which was of course very incorrect as there was plenty of downward move after that.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> I know the facts and the actual numbers
> surrounding the environment disagree with your
> "always correct feelings" but there it is.
> Wishes, hopes and "feelings" are as helpful as
> your Oct 2008 Dow 8000 bottom call, which was of
> course very incorrect as there was plenty of
> downward move after that.

Look at the Dow trend from October until now. 8,000 is the floor. Yes, it dipped into 6,000 territory for about six weeks, but given that it found 8,000 again, THAT is the floor.

I'm not saying that housing prices won't slip a bit after this. But the fact is mortgage rates are at historic lows and there is no guarantee they will stay at this level for long.

And as for Junes comments, I had a friend close at 4.5% yesterday without any special considerations. Unless you have a shitty credit score, you should be able to qualify for less than 5%. Go to any bank website and look at the mortgage rates they are quoting for a 30-year fixed. NONE are in the 6% range.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> I know the facts and the actual numbers
> surrounding the environment disagree with your
> "always correct feelings" but there it is.
> Wishes, hopes and "feelings" are as helpful as
> your Oct 2008 Dow 8000 bottom call, which was of
> course very incorrect as there was plenty of
> downward move after that.


Once again, look at the chart. Where do you see the bulk of the trendline...8,000!

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA/tab/2

What are you talking about? What do you mean "once again"? Today it is around 8000 but if someone had put new money in with your advice in late October they would have lost 23% before panicking and selling out. Why open a thread for discussion if you are going to keep changing the subject and not address what you are being challenged on? Oh, because I thought we were having a logical discussion but it's so obviously one-sided I'm losing interest.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> pgens Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > I know the facts and the actual numbers
> > surrounding the environment disagree with your
> > "always correct feelings" but there it is.
> > Wishes, hopes and "feelings" are as helpful as
> > your Oct 2008 Dow 8000 bottom call, which was
> of
> > course very incorrect as there was plenty of
> > downward move after that.
>
>
> Once again, look at the chart. Where do you see
> the bulk of the trendline...8,000!
>
> http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJIA/tab/2


Depends on your timeline, but the trendline from Oct was down steeply to the 6000s, since then it has been up.

Calling a bottom at 8000 in Oct was wrong but that's nothing to be ashamed of. Any expert will tell you that trying to call a bottom is a fool's errand even for the experienced professionals, let alone novice internet surfers.

Justin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any expert will
> tell you that trying to call a bottom is a fool's
> errand even for the experienced professionals, let
> alone novice internet surfers.

Got that right.

WTL: I think you are confusing the term "floor" with "resistance level" or "support level" or "banded range" or something... I don't know that 8000 is an exact resistance level or not, but your terminology isn't correct which is why I think I'm having trouble communicating points.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Justin Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Any expert will
> > tell you that trying to call a bottom is a
> fool's
> > errand even for the experienced professionals,
> let
> > alone novice internet surfers.
>
> Got that right.
>
> WTL: I think you are confusing the term "floor"
> with "resistance level" or "support level" or
> "banded range" or something... I don't know that
> 8000 is an exact resistance level or not, but your
> terminology isn't correct which is why I think I'm
> having trouble communicating points.


I probably shouldn't have used the term "bottom." Technical support level would be more appropriate.

Interesting article on the current increasing rate of foreclosures. Takeaway quote for the thread: "Jon Maddux, chief executive officer of You Walk Away, a Carlsbad, Calif.-based company that advises homeowners on the foreclosure process...thinks 2009 will present a “false bottom” to the foreclosure and housing market woes and that the market may not truly bottom out until 2012."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30235263/page/2/


I already provided info on why February numbers that go up mean nothing so readers of the thread would not be misled by happiness posted over them, but just as a followup I thought I would pass on this article that confirmed that housing starts resumed their downward slope in March:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30243405/

"The Commerce Department said housing starts fell 10.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 units, the second lowest on records dating back to 1959 , from February's 572,000 units."

That article also has lots on info on why nothing is setting up for a recovery in housing or in jobs.



As an extra bonus, here is a piece by Diana Olick, the realty guru on CNBC. She reports that even if pent-up demand were to be satisfied by loosening of credit and return of jobs, the home builders couldn't satisfy the demand because of credit and other issues of their own. The bottom is not here.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30251138

Pgens-

Some questions.

Where are the foreclosures jumping because of the lifting of moratoriums? Northern Virginia? Or California, Nevada and Florida?

Where are the unemployment rates at 8.5% to 10%? Northern Virginia? Or California, Nevada and Florida?

Where would people in Fairfax County most likely buy a home? Northern Virginia? Or California, Nevada and Florida?

You can quote all the national figures you want. I'm talking about owning a house in Fairfax County.

I'm locked in at 4.5%

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You can quote all the national figures you want.
> I'm talking about owning a house in Fairfax
> County.

You have posted CNBC links that talk about national trends to make your point... not sure how that squares with the above. Like on March 23 when you posted "Further evidence the housing market has found a floor and is starting to build back" (ha), I don't see the Fairfax-only piece of that.

But NoVA will suffer too. Not everyone who lives here is a government contractor. Some of them worked at Circuit City or many other closed or suffering businesses. Foreclosures will rise here too, but certainly not at the levels of the states you mentioned (I hope).

Hmm... still not looking great for a "spring thaw":

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30367448/

"...sales falling more than expected from February levels"

On a slightly unrelated topic, it also had this quote: "Real estate agents are getting calls from first-time buyers looking to take advantage of a new $8,000 tax credit. And that should give a boost to sales figures for early summer."


I wish they'd offer this to everyone. Or at least a way to do it to not benefit speculators by offering the credit on the 2011 tax return for buying a house during the 2009 tax year and keeping it through Dec 31 2011. With rates where they are, if I were to qualify for the $8k tax credit under those conditions I would buy in a heartbeat because I at least have that $8k in downside valuation protection. Let's get these things sold!

I agree on the $8K.

Regarding the home sales numbers, the total inventory did slip a bit and the median home price, while being down year-over-year, increased slightly between February and March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aONjHmA8iZV4&refer=home

U.S. Housing Starts Dropped to Record Low 458,000 Pace in April

By Bob Willis

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Builders broke ground on the fewest homes on record in April as work on multifamily units plunged, a sign that sales and home prices may have farther to fall before the housing market reaches a bottom.

Look at the rest of the report...

Home Sales

Still, housing data in recent weeks have shown signs of stabilization. Sales of existing homes, which in January reached the lowest since records began in 1990, have held within a narrow range centered on a 4.6 million annual rate for five months. Sales of new houses, while more than 70 percent below their 2005 peaks, have bounced from a record low set in January.


The fact is housing prices in NoVA have stabilized and are starting to come back. You keep pointing to national reports, which are using data from dead zones like Florida, Michigan and California. And I don't believe it is a bad thing for the housing market that new homes aren't being built when there is still inventory on the market.

In my neighborhood there are two houses currently in foreclosure. On the flip side there are at least three or four duplexes being built rather than single property homes.

12% of all mortgages are delinquent. Prime loan foreclosure rates have now passed subprime. New home sales for March massively revised downward.

That said, with the Treasury financing the stimulus package by selling more debt, rates are going to be on the rise. I still wouldn't buy a home here, but a refinance to any fixed rate you can find under 5% may be wise.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 12% of all mortgages are delinquent. Prime loan
> foreclosure rates have now passed subprime. New
> home sales for March massively revised downward.
>
> That said, with the Treasury financing the
> stimulus package by selling more debt, rates are
> going to be on the rise. I still wouldn't buy a
> home here, but a refinance to any fixed rate you
> can find under 5% may be wise.


The auction yesterday bombed. Rates are on the rise. If you want below 5%, you may be too late.

Yep, we've pretty clearly seen bottom on rates.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The auction yesterday bombed. Rates are on the
> rise. If you want below 5%, you may be too late.

Hence the suggestion to grab it if you can find it.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone Locian Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The auction yesterday bombed. Rates are on the
> > rise. If you want below 5%, you may be too
> late.
>
> Hence the suggestion to grab it if you can find
> it.


I get rate updates from Wells Fargo every day. The rate for a 30-year home mortgage jumped from 5% to 5.5% from yesterday to today. This time last week, rates were 4.75%.

.
Attachments:

The news continues to be bad, the bottom ain't in yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLU_yVWfAiFE

"All signs point to further declines."

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The news continues to be bad, the bottom ain't in
> yet.
>
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si
> d=aLU_yVWfAiFE
>
> "All signs point to further declines."

In NoVA?

Tell me. Interest rates were at 4.5% a month ago. Today they are near 6%. Was a mortgage payment less last month or more than it is now?

At the moment the rate went up it was obviously lower last month, but that doesn't take into account any deals that fell through because of non-locked-in rates, nor does it take into account the gradual downward price adjustments that will undoubtedly occur. Some properties I am looking at have dropped asking prices slightly in the last few weeks... I'm in the market so I can see the results.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At the moment the rate went up it was obviously
> lower last month, but that doesn't take into
> account any deals that fell through because of
> non-locked-in rates, nor does it take into account
> the gradual downward price adjustments that will
> undoubtedly occur. Some properties I am looking
> at have dropped asking prices slightly in the last
> few weeks... I'm in the market so I can see the
> results.


If you are in the market, then you must believe this is the time to buy. Correct?

Yes and no... as any other smart shopper have feelers out for any properties that come up that I am interested in. But no, I do not believe the bottom is in, which is why any starting offer would be 90% of Fairfax's 2009 assessment. I look at properties in a price range, but certainly hedge against some further downswing and regard asking prices as somewhat irrelevant. I believe this will be an L-shaped recovery in housing and see no hurry to buy, which is why I am free to make offers I don't believe I will regret a year from now.

edit to add: where are you getting 6%? I see bankrate lists a number of loans under 5.5%. There was a spike up sure, but that doesn't mean it won't come in some.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/23/2009 12:58PM by pgens.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes and no... as any other smart shopper have
> feelers out for any properties that come up that I
> am interested in. But no, I do not believe the
> bottom is in, which is why any starting offer
> would be 90% of Fairfax's 2009 assessment. I look
> at properties in a price range, but certainly
> hedge against some further downswing and regard
> asking prices as somewhat irrelevant. I believe
> this will be an L-shaped recovery in housing and
> see no hurry to buy, which is why I am free to
> make offers I don't believe I will regret a year
> from now.
>
> edit to add: where are you getting 6%? I see
> bankrate lists a number of loans under 5.5%.
> There was a spike up sure, but that doesn't mean
> it won't come in some.


I've seen a couple of alerts come over at 6%. I believe last week.

I have found Wells Fargo's rate alert (if that is what you are using) to not be very useful... I can usually pull up BankRate at the moment I see the Wells Fargo alert come and find plenty of lower rates at zero points.

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