Re: COVID-19 Deaths 600,000 Americans in Next Three Months
Posted by:
Lawrence fishburne
()
Date: April 02, 2020 10:53AM
90% are confident we're good Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1.2 Million Deaths in USA Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > It's not made up. It's a model based on
> > historical deaths in other countries like China
> > and Europe.
> >
> > The US COVID-19 is believed to more deadly. So
> > yes, most likely around 500,000 deaths.
> >
> > 600,000 would be the average. The most popular
> or
> > widely believed model is predicting 1.2
> million.
>
>
> So wrong. The "most popular or widely believed
> model" that predicted between 1.2 and 2 million
> deaths was based on a no-intervention assumption
> where the Wuhan Virus quickly spiked up to 85,000
> deaths/day over the course of two weeks and then
> fell off again.
>
> But we did intervene, with massive authoritarian
> shut downs of huge parts of this country.
>
> The current model takes this into account, assumes
> that we will continue to intervene over the next
> 30 days and concludes that deaths will be between
> 100,000 and 240,000. And that is considered the
> worst case if we continue our current practices
> for the next 30 days.
>
> Geez, some of you posters are morons.
^
This
The media loves to role with the worst case scenario numbers because it gets them clicks. Our social distancing and lockdown protocols are working and projections are getting pushed down. I think by July, we’ll probably see around 20,000 deaths but maybe less. Question is will a stronger second wave hit in the fall when flu season starts. It could and might add another 20,000 dead by this time next year.