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So who had the most accurate polling for VA governor?
Posted by: trogdor! ()
Date: November 07, 2013 12:11AM

Newsmax/Zogby blew it, saying McAuliffe had a 12% lead


Emerson College was fairly close, at least on the approx 2% split http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/forum/read/40/1350519/1350562.html#msg-1350562

Of course Emerson had the later poll.

Quinnipiac was damn close, with the actual results being within their margin of error http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/forum/read/40/1347917/1348211.html#msg-1348211

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Re: So who had the most accurate polling for VA governor?
Posted by: Poll Lock ()
Date: November 07, 2013 06:53AM

Two weeks before the election Rasmussen had McAuliffe up by 17 - which was never the case at any point. He tightened to 7 at the end, which still was outside the margin of error. Rasmussen has really lost his once golden sheen.

The ABC/WP poll is always right, if you subtract 10 points for the democrat candidate and give it to the republican. In 2009 they had McDonnell up by 10 in their last poll. He won by 18. This past weekend, they had McAuluffe up by 12. He won by a little more than 2. My gosh how anyone can believe them is puzzling. Why won't they fire their crappy pollsters?

Quinnipac seemed to be the one consistently capturing the trends (McAuliffe going up during the shutdown, Cuccinelli coming back after Obamacare roll out). I think they were also pretty dead on in 2012 as well, but I'm too lazy to go back and look.

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Re: So who had the most accurate polling for VA governor?
Posted by: Bill.N. ()
Date: November 07, 2013 10:40AM

I thought overall Quinnipac did the best job. I believe their poll two weeks out ended up nailing the final numbers.

In the pollsters' defense I think this one was harder to do. Probably over 50% of voters were not happy with either major party's candidate.

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