WASHINGTON (AP) - An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters.
The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy also seemed to strike a chord.

The race is still volatile. Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had a seven-point lead over McCain.
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Well, the Wall Street Journal's front page this morning reads, "Obama Opens Double-Digit Lead" with Obama leading +10%. Also leading among all Independents (+12%) , Suburban Voters (+12%) and those over Age 65+ (+9%). This poll ran by WSJ/NBC News with margin of +/- 2.9%.

The "likely voter" polls like the AP/Gfk poll uses a "traditional voter" model. In other words, if you are a registered voter who has never voted before and you claim you are going to vote this time, you are dropped from the results. What we have seen from early voting exit-polling is that people who haven't voted before are showing up at the polls and they are trending toward Obama. This could further enhance the "reverse Bradley" effect on election day.

OMG, and another. That flapping sound is the wind out of your sails.

Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.


About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season.

Well, the Wall Street Journal's front page this morning reads, "Obama Opens Double-Digit Lead" with Obama leading +10%. Also leading among all Independents (+12%) , Suburban Voters (+12%) and those over Age 65+ (+9%). This poll ran by WSJ/NBC News with margin of +/- 2.9%.

Not Amended, but Restated Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, the Wall Street Journal's front page this
> morning reads, "Obama Opens Double-Digit Lead"
> with Obama leading +10%. Also leading among all
> Independents (+12%) , Suburban Voters (+12%) and
> those over Age 65+ (+9%). This poll ran by WSJ/NBC
> News with margin of +/- 2.9%.

Not amended, but retarded. nuff said.

Holy Shit 1.1 point difference from the most accurate pollster of 2004!


IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven
Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008


McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. 44.8% for Senator Obama and 43.7% for Senator McCain. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309635713550536

Oh, and endorsed by John Elway in CA who had more than 60 come from behind wins! I can't wait for the McInauguration!

Why would I post a poll that is complete BS. As usual, republicans are grasping for any chance of hope.

McCain's economic polices, close ties to Bush, the economy in shambles and the choice of Sarah Palin over Rommney or Huckabee sealed McCain's his fate a long time ago.

These are the same polls from the last election (Bush vs Kerry).
If you say Obama is ahead long enough, I guess the liberal media will think we will stay home and not vote. I think not.

Oh, look! Even the worthless IBD poll has Obama up by 3.5% now! (Outside the Margin of Error).

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309726105567795

Please note how the IBD poll gives McCain a 2-to-1 advantage over Obama in the "youth vote." Seriously, does anyone believe that?