HomeFairfax General ForumArrest/Ticket SearchWiki newPictures/VideosChatArticlesLinksAbout
Off-Topic :  Fairfax Underground fairfax underground logo
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Election Market Quotes
Posted by: 15.5 Point Lead by Obama! ()
Date: September 09, 2008 12:53PM

Gap keeps getting wider....

Market Quotes: Pres08_WTA

2008 Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market.
Quotes current as of 11:30:00 CST, Tuesday, September 09, 2008.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM08_WTA 0.576 0.583 0.583 0.575 0.592 0.583
REP08_WTA 0.420 0.424 0.424 0.419 0.439 0.428

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Registered Voter ()
Date: September 09, 2008 12:55PM

Good, keep on betting in the markets on who wins. I am sure the guys in Vegas love it - especially all the folks that keep on betting Obama even though he is falling behind.

I will guess that after the debates you will see these numbers reflect reality.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 01:10PM

From the intrade prediction market:

Trade 2008.PRES.OBAMA 51.0 52.0 3 51.0 356.0k -2.0
Trade 2008.PRES.McCAIN 48.0 49.0 30 48.0 490.3k +2.9

More like 3 points and closing....


http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Intrade is unreliable ()
Date: September 09, 2008 01:52PM

Intrade is unreliable, so is Ebay. Here you go once more...

Market Quotes: Pres08_WTA

2008 Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market.
Quotes current as of 11:30:00 CST, Tuesday, September 09, 2008.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM08_WTA 0.576 0.583 0.583 0.575 0.592 0.583
REP08_WTA 0.420 0.424 0.424 0.419 0.439 0.428

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 02:29PM

Intrade is unreliable Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Intrade is unreliable, so is Ebay. Here you go
> once more...
>
> Market Quotes: Pres08_WTA
>
> 2008 Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market.
>
> Quotes current as of 11:30:00 CST, Tuesday,
> September 09, 2008.
> Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
> DEM08_WTA 0.576 0.583 0.583 0.575 0.592 0.583
> REP08_WTA 0.420 0.424 0.424 0.419 0.439 0.428

I tend to disagree. The Iowa Election Market limits the traders to $500 and limits the number of traders. When larger amounts of money are wagered in online betting sites, like Intrade, there is a tendency toward greater accuracy. After all, the IEM was favoring Clinton in Iowa and Obama in NH.

PS - no need to post the numbers again. I saw them the first time, I just find them less reliable than Intrade.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: No way ()
Date: September 09, 2008 02:46PM

Mouseketeer - Do your homework. Just because you find them less reliable, doesn't mean 99.999% of the public does. Intrade lacks volume.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 03:44PM

No way Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Intrade lacks volume.

You really aren't serious about that claim are you? The IEM has a VERY limited number of participants. It capped at 2900 participants in '04 and had a total of $300K invested. Intrade had $15 million in trading during the '04 cycle. I am not sure what the cap is this year at IEM as they do not release the date, but Intrade trading volume is running around $74 million.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Audi 5000 G ()
Date: September 09, 2008 03:47PM

Is Obama leading Intrade too? Just curious.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 03:48PM

Audi 5000 G Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is Obama leading Intrade too? Just curious.


By 3 - see above

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Mouseketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 03:58PM

Perfect. Thanks for the prompt reply.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 04:08PM

Mouseketeer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Perfect. Thanks for the prompt reply.


Wow, 15.5 Point Lead by Obama, Intrade is unreliable, No way, Mouseketeer, or whatever other name you want to go by, you get a little worked up and go straight to the personal attacks when you get completely proven wrong, don't you? It's OK, you are going to make more mistakes in life and if you keep reacting like a juvenile ass everytime they are pointed out you are going to lead one miserable existence. This is an anonymous internet board, don't take it so roughly when you get proven wrong. Chalk it up to experience and move on. Look at it this way, you learned something new today and when the same topic of conversation comes up in the future, you won't sound so ignorant.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: You Shopping Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 04:12PM

The Iowa election markets are proven to be the most reliable. Write it down. Google it. I don't care. Market analysis is my business. This is why I'm retired at 47.

Please don't take it out on me just because you have an itchy asshole.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 04:28PM

You Shopping Marketeer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Iowa election markets are proven to be the
> most reliable. Write it down. Google it. I
> don't care. Market analysis is my business. This
> is why I'm retired at 47.
>
> Please don't take it out on me just because you
> have an itchy asshole.


Seems the market has passed you by, Grandpa. The IEM is an antiquated dinosaur that has seen its day. Intrade has passed it by in sheer volume. The fact that you contend that "Intrade lacks volume," when it clearly trounces the volume of the IEM demonstrates you are living in 1998. It is good you are retired, no need to put those antiquated notions of yours to work. Now go strap on the Depends, wrap up in your blanket and enjoy an rerun of Matlock. I assume you just got back from the early bird special?

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Itchy Assketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 04:53PM

Oooooh. I bet you're pissed off now, huh? Yeah! Get mad!

You'll stay up obessing over that one. Maybe come in to the office tomorrow all clenched up ready to take it out on the water cooler.

Now please, quit acting like a dog with worms and get your itchy asshole off my lawn, bitch!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Marketeer ()
Date: September 09, 2008 06:53PM

Itchy Assketeer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oooooh. I bet you're pissed off now, huh? Yeah!
> Get mad!
>
> You'll stay up obessing over that one. Maybe come
> in to the office tomorrow all clenched up ready to
> take it out on the water cooler.
>
> Now please, quit acting like a dog with worms and
> get your itchy asshole off my lawn, bitch!

Nah, not pissed, mildly amused at my ability to drive you off the deep end. It is interesting to see your progression throughout the day. I am guessing that around 3:30 to 4 is when your meds start wearing off and the manic phase is in full swing. I also guess that by the time the evening rolls around you are in full fledged depression. You should talk to your doc about regulating your meds. Until then, feel free to make an ass out of yourself - it amuses me. You are my clown. What is disturbing is your fASSination with the sphincter. At least you droped the pederasty and scatological references from your routine!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Wait until this airs !!!! ()
Date: September 09, 2008 07:11PM

You gotta watch this until the end when the man turns to walk away.

Can't wait until this hits the air !!! This is what a true hero is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG4fe9GlWS8

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Interested Observer ()
Date: September 11, 2008 01:36PM

Latest ITRADE #s -
PRES.OBAMA 47.6
PRES.McCAIN 50.5

Latest IEM #s -
DEM08_WTA 0.549
REP08_WTA 0.447

It appears that the Iowa Electronic Market is slow to react to real time events. In any event, his 15.5 point advantage has shrunk to 10.2 in less than 48 hours. Even more interesting is that ITRADE, with more participating and more real money involved, has McCain ahead now

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: Update ()
Date: September 11, 2008 03:34PM

Investment caps (as maintained by the Iowa Electronic Markets and the UBC Election Stock Market) level the trading opportunities among traders. Whether investment caps help with prediction accuracy has not yet been determined conclusively. However, without an investment cap, commercial election stock markets may be dominated by a small number of traders. These are single traders making unproportional bets compared to the average trader. The existence of transaction costs for investing and trading in commercial election stock markets may also reduce their efficiency. IEM has no transaction costs.

Update: Latest Electoral Map from Intrade shows Obama ahead again in the electoral and popular votes.

http://electoralmap.net/index.php

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Election Market Quotes
Posted by: ouch ()
Date: September 27, 2010 12:18PM

Market Quotes: House10
2010 House Control Market.
Quotes current as of 10:45:04 CST, Monday, September 27, 2010.

DH.gain10 .011
DH.hold10 .228
DH.lose10 .761

Options: ReplyQuote


Your Name: 
Your Email (Optional): 
Subject: 
Attach a file
  • No file can be larger than 75 MB
  • All files together cannot be larger than 300 MB
  • 30 more file(s) can be attached to this message
Spam prevention:
Please, enter the code that you see below in the input field. This is for blocking bots that try to post this form automatically.
 **     **  **        **    **   ******   **    ** 
 **     **  **         **  **   **    **  ***   ** 
 **     **  **          ****    **        ****  ** 
 *********  **           **     **        ** ** ** 
 **     **  **           **     **        **  **** 
 **     **  **           **     **    **  **   *** 
 **     **  ********     **      ******   **    ** 
This forum powered by Phorum.