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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 17, 2012 01:34PM
After Romney cleans Obama's clock in the next debate clearing up all the disinformation and confusion from Obama and his sidekick Crowley, it will be time to start packing it in for Chicago land. Good bye losers!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Aloha
()
Date: October 17, 2012 01:43PM
Actually, it has been reported that the Obamas will likely be moving to Hawaii when he leaves office in January.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
*sniff*
()
Date: October 17, 2012 01:49PM
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 17, 2012 01:56PM
*sniff* Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> src="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/aaargo
> xx/gifanim/bd_obama_lip_quivver.gif">
This could get interesting. Narcissists don't take rejection lightly. This dude is ready to snap.
-------------------------------------------------------
> src="http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/aaargo
> xx/gifanim/bd_obama_lip_quivver.gif">
This could get interesting. Narcissists don't take rejection lightly. This dude is ready to snap.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Matt Romney
()
Date: October 17, 2012 01:59PM
Three more weeks
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Three more weeks
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:09PM
Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's bullshit anymore.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
election will be over
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:13PM
Three more weeks Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> bullshit anymore.
Yup. He will have won the election and he will be off the airwaves and starting to assemble his government.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> bullshit anymore.
Yup. He will have won the election and he will be off the airwaves and starting to assemble his government.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Z3R0
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:15PM
Three more weeks Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> bullshit anymore.
Doubtful, but keep dreaming and hoping, cockhole. You butt pirates are done for.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> bullshit anymore.
Doubtful, but keep dreaming and hoping, cockhole. You butt pirates are done for.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Times they are a changin'
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:21PM
Z3R0 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Three more weeks Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> > bullshit anymore.
>
> Doubtful, but keep dreaming and hoping, cockhole.
> You butt pirates are done for.
Yeah, that's why you dumbshits aren't posting every Dem-skewed poll you can find showing Obama leading by 10 points like you used to. lmao
This is looking more and more like Reagan-Carter.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Three more weeks Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Until we won't have to listen to Mitt Romney's
> > bullshit anymore.
>
> Doubtful, but keep dreaming and hoping, cockhole.
> You butt pirates are done for.
Yeah, that's why you dumbshits aren't posting every Dem-skewed poll you can find showing Obama leading by 10 points like you used to. lmao
This is looking more and more like Reagan-Carter.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Ahmayzin
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:21PM
Douche Romney is about as useful, as an ice cube in Hell on Thursday.
Huh?
Huh?
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Nolan Malloy
()
Date: October 17, 2012 02:35PM
He's better than the darkie. Plus I bet his cock's bigger.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
WhereMyPhone?
()
Date: October 17, 2012 03:01PM
Nolan Malloy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He's better than the darkie. Plus I bet his cock's
> bigger.
Romney didn't marry a Hoochie Mamma.
-------------------------------------------------------
> He's better than the darkie. Plus I bet his cock's
> bigger.
Romney didn't marry a Hoochie Mamma.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
work - I think not
()
Date: October 17, 2012 03:23PM
Somebody better let me move in with them if Romney wins.
Attachments:
Attachments:
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Uncle.Ream.Us
()
Date: October 17, 2012 03:45PM
No candidate for president has overcome a 6 point deficit at this point in the campaign except Ronald Reagan (and even then, Carter maintained his 45% support +/- the MOE over the last 2½ weeks). And worse the Obamabots, he is the Carter in this race so Obama really has no path to increasing his voting base. The only other person than Carter to lose after leading at this point in the race is Thomas Dewey, who lost to Truman with 2 other candidates in the race who kept Dewey under 50%.
This isn't over, but it is looking bleak for Obama. If you ask yourself, "I'd rather be in Obama's position in this race right now or Romney's?", almost no one is going to pick the tanking Obama. If Romney gets up to 52 or 53, this election is over.
A 6 point lead equals the largest margin in Gallup's head-to-head between these two except one 7 point lead Obama had back in April. And it is the widest lead by far since Gallup starting polling only registered voters at the beginning of Oct. And 3 weeks ago Gallup changed with polling methodology and it actually helped Obama's numbers.
Devasting!
This isn't over, but it is looking bleak for Obama. If you ask yourself, "I'd rather be in Obama's position in this race right now or Romney's?", almost no one is going to pick the tanking Obama. If Romney gets up to 52 or 53, this election is over.
A 6 point lead equals the largest margin in Gallup's head-to-head between these two except one 7 point lead Obama had back in April. And it is the widest lead by far since Gallup starting polling only registered voters at the beginning of Oct. And 3 weeks ago Gallup changed with polling methodology and it actually helped Obama's numbers.
Devasting!
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 17, 2012 03:52PM
Uncle.Ream.Us Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No candidate for president has overcome a 6 point
> deficit at this point in the campaign except
> Ronald Reagan (and even then, Carter maintained
> his 45% support +/- the MOE over the last 2½
> weeks). And worse the Obamabots, he is the Carter
> in this race so Obama really has no path to
> increasing his voting base. The only other person
> than Carter to lose after leading at this point in
> the race is Thomas Dewey, who lost to Truman with
> 2 other candidates in the race who kept Dewey
> under 50%.
>
> This isn't over, but it is looking bleak for
> Obama. If you ask yourself, "I'd rather be in
> Obama's position in this race right now or
> Romney's?", almost no one is going to pick the
> tanking Obama. If Romney gets up to 52 or 53,
> this election is over.
>
> A 6 point lead equals the largest margin in
> Gallup's head-to-head between these two except one
> 7 point lead Obama had back in April. And it is
> the widest lead by far since Gallup starting
> polling only registered voters at the beginning of
> Oct. And 3 weeks ago Gallup changed with polling
> methodology and it actually helped Obama's
> numbers.
>
> Devasting!
Devastating indeed sir.
-------------------------------------------------------
> No candidate for president has overcome a 6 point
> deficit at this point in the campaign except
> Ronald Reagan (and even then, Carter maintained
> his 45% support +/- the MOE over the last 2½
> weeks). And worse the Obamabots, he is the Carter
> in this race so Obama really has no path to
> increasing his voting base. The only other person
> than Carter to lose after leading at this point in
> the race is Thomas Dewey, who lost to Truman with
> 2 other candidates in the race who kept Dewey
> under 50%.
>
> This isn't over, but it is looking bleak for
> Obama. If you ask yourself, "I'd rather be in
> Obama's position in this race right now or
> Romney's?", almost no one is going to pick the
> tanking Obama. If Romney gets up to 52 or 53,
> this election is over.
>
> A 6 point lead equals the largest margin in
> Gallup's head-to-head between these two except one
> 7 point lead Obama had back in April. And it is
> the widest lead by far since Gallup starting
> polling only registered voters at the beginning of
> Oct. And 3 weeks ago Gallup changed with polling
> methodology and it actually helped Obama's
> numbers.
>
> Devasting!
Devastating indeed sir.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Chris M
()
Date: October 17, 2012 03:57PM
My leg isn't tingling.
Attachments:
Attachments:
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Bill.N.
()
Date: October 17, 2012 04:39PM
I love how Gallup was considered so unreliable when it was saying Obama was ahead, but it is now the GOLD STANDARD. Take a good look at Rasmussen. He's been saying for some time that the numbers have been consistently close with only slight movement either way...AND yes he is also saying that Romney is slightly ahead now, but not to the same degree.
Here is what it really comes down to: Since debate #1 Wisconsin and Ohio, both leaning slightly towards Obama, have drifted closer to even, ohio more so than Wisconsin. Florida and North Carolina now look more likely to go for Romney. And for true junkies there is the question of what happens in Nebraska and Maine, two states that do not have winner takes all electoral votes.
Here is what it really comes down to: Since debate #1 Wisconsin and Ohio, both leaning slightly towards Obama, have drifted closer to even, ohio more so than Wisconsin. Florida and North Carolina now look more likely to go for Romney. And for true junkies there is the question of what happens in Nebraska and Maine, two states that do not have winner takes all electoral votes.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 17, 2012 06:17PM
Bill.N. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I love how Gallup was considered so unreliable
> when it was saying Obama was ahead, but it is now
> the GOLD STANDARD. Take a good look at Rasmussen.
> He's been saying for some time that the numbers
> have been consistently close with only slight
> movement either way...AND yes he is also saying
> that Romney is slightly ahead now, but not to the
> same degree.
>
> Here is what it really comes down to: Since
> debate #1 Wisconsin and Ohio, both leaning
> slightly towards Obama, have drifted closer to
> even, ohio more so than Wisconsin. Florida and
> North Carolina now look more likely to go for
> Romney. And for true junkies there is the
> question of what happens in Nebraska and Maine,
> two states that do not have winner takes all
> electoral votes.
It's not that I considered Gallup unreliable Bill, but let's be honest where their polling has led us since early spring. And some rather suspicious activities by Eric Holder and David Axlerod.
In case you missed it: the Obama Administration joined a lawsuit brought by a former employee against the Gallup Corporation for allegedly charging the government too much for polling work.
Sounds reasonable enough. Except there’s the issue of conflict, and timing, which puts the issue in a whole new light and as it continues to be investigated, it seems there might be something to it.
The announcement came on the heels of a confrontation between Gallup staffers and Obama strategist David Axelrod in which he accused the company of using out of date sampling methods which, he said, generated polling data negative to the president.
The whistleblower’s lawsuit has been kicking around since 2009, but the Justice Department joined the suit only after the run-in between Axelrod and Gallup in April of this year.
In a scene right out of a typical authoritarian regime, Fox News reported that “employees at the venerable Gallup polling firm suggested they felt threatened by Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod when he questioned the methodology of a mid-April poll showing Mitt Romney leading the president – according to internal emails.”
The poll that sent Axelrod ballistic showed Romney leading Obama 48-43 percent.
The Daily Caller published e mails that started when Axelrod sent a tweet to Gallup saying the tracking poll was “saddled with some methodological problems” and directing followers to a National Journal story in which a professor suggested outdated sampling.
According to the email chain titled “Axelrod vs. Gallup,” the White House in addition asked that a Gallup staffer “come over and explain our methodology,” which was apparently perceived as a subtle threat.
Fox News reported that “a Gallup official said in an email he thought Axelrod’s pressure ‘sounds a little like a Godfather situation.’”
Gallup refused to change its methodology to suit the White House.
And the Justice Department intervention in the whistleblower suit came three months later.
No doubt there’s plausible deniability here. But considering the administration’s close ties to the SEIU and ACORN (known for their thug tactics) and it’s willingness to force legislation on the nation that its own citizens don’t support, it would be completely unsurprising to see them strong-arming a polling organization that portrays them in a less-than-favorable light. And here’s the kicker – the employee who brought the suit against Gallup in the first place? He worked for the Obama campaign in 2008.
Also Gallup DID start weighting their polls + Democrat by as much as 11 points after Axlerod's input which immediately shifted in Obama's favor.
And they are Still weighted +9 Dem right now! So you can safely add at least 3 or 4 more points onto today's poll for Romney.
I know this has to be depressing for you Bill knowing your background. But it is over.
-------------------------------------------------------
> I love how Gallup was considered so unreliable
> when it was saying Obama was ahead, but it is now
> the GOLD STANDARD. Take a good look at Rasmussen.
> He's been saying for some time that the numbers
> have been consistently close with only slight
> movement either way...AND yes he is also saying
> that Romney is slightly ahead now, but not to the
> same degree.
>
> Here is what it really comes down to: Since
> debate #1 Wisconsin and Ohio, both leaning
> slightly towards Obama, have drifted closer to
> even, ohio more so than Wisconsin. Florida and
> North Carolina now look more likely to go for
> Romney. And for true junkies there is the
> question of what happens in Nebraska and Maine,
> two states that do not have winner takes all
> electoral votes.
It's not that I considered Gallup unreliable Bill, but let's be honest where their polling has led us since early spring. And some rather suspicious activities by Eric Holder and David Axlerod.
In case you missed it: the Obama Administration joined a lawsuit brought by a former employee against the Gallup Corporation for allegedly charging the government too much for polling work.
Sounds reasonable enough. Except there’s the issue of conflict, and timing, which puts the issue in a whole new light and as it continues to be investigated, it seems there might be something to it.
The announcement came on the heels of a confrontation between Gallup staffers and Obama strategist David Axelrod in which he accused the company of using out of date sampling methods which, he said, generated polling data negative to the president.
The whistleblower’s lawsuit has been kicking around since 2009, but the Justice Department joined the suit only after the run-in between Axelrod and Gallup in April of this year.
In a scene right out of a typical authoritarian regime, Fox News reported that “employees at the venerable Gallup polling firm suggested they felt threatened by Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod when he questioned the methodology of a mid-April poll showing Mitt Romney leading the president – according to internal emails.”
The poll that sent Axelrod ballistic showed Romney leading Obama 48-43 percent.
The Daily Caller published e mails that started when Axelrod sent a tweet to Gallup saying the tracking poll was “saddled with some methodological problems” and directing followers to a National Journal story in which a professor suggested outdated sampling.
According to the email chain titled “Axelrod vs. Gallup,” the White House in addition asked that a Gallup staffer “come over and explain our methodology,” which was apparently perceived as a subtle threat.
Fox News reported that “a Gallup official said in an email he thought Axelrod’s pressure ‘sounds a little like a Godfather situation.’”
Gallup refused to change its methodology to suit the White House.
And the Justice Department intervention in the whistleblower suit came three months later.
No doubt there’s plausible deniability here. But considering the administration’s close ties to the SEIU and ACORN (known for their thug tactics) and it’s willingness to force legislation on the nation that its own citizens don’t support, it would be completely unsurprising to see them strong-arming a polling organization that portrays them in a less-than-favorable light. And here’s the kicker – the employee who brought the suit against Gallup in the first place? He worked for the Obama campaign in 2008.
Also Gallup DID start weighting their polls + Democrat by as much as 11 points after Axlerod's input which immediately shifted in Obama's favor.
And they are Still weighted +9 Dem right now! So you can safely add at least 3 or 4 more points onto today's poll for Romney.
I know this has to be depressing for you Bill knowing your background. But it is over.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Reality Staer
()
Date: October 17, 2012 07:08PM
Thomas Sowell Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> After Romney cleans Obama's clock in the next
> debate...
You hope.
> Good bye losers!
You said it, Brother! Mittens can't retire to LaJolla soon enough!
BTW: You know that national polls mean absolutely nothing, right?
The only states that matter are Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
Thanks, though, for your meaningless post.
-------------------------------------------------------
> After Romney cleans Obama's clock in the next
> debate...
You hope.
> Good bye losers!
You said it, Brother! Mittens can't retire to LaJolla soon enough!
BTW: You know that national polls mean absolutely nothing, right?
The only states that matter are Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
Thanks, though, for your meaningless post.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 17, 2012 08:31PM
Reality Staer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thomas Sowell Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > After Romney cleans Obama's clock in the next
> > debate...
>
> You hope.
>
> > Good bye losers!
>
> You said it, Brother! Mittens can't retire to
> LaJolla soon enough!
>
> BTW: You know that national polls mean absolutely
> nothing, right?
>
> The only states that matter are Ohio, Florida,
> Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
>
> Thanks, though, for your meaningless post.
Okay Dope.
Ohio....RCP Average 10/5 - 10/13 -- -- 48.3 46.1 Obama +2.2 toss up
Florida...RCP Average 10/7 - 10/14 -- -- 49.3 46.8 Romney +2.5 toss up
Virginia...RCP Average 10/4 - 10/14 -- -- 48.4 47.6 Obama +0.8 toss up
Nevada...RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
New Hampshire...RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
Colorado...RCP Average 10/4 - 10/15 -- -- 48.0 47.3 Romney +0.7 toss up
This gives Romney Co & Fla with 38 electorals
Obama the rest with 41 and sinking fast.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thomas Sowell Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > After Romney cleans Obama's clock in the next
> > debate...
>
> You hope.
>
> > Good bye losers!
>
> You said it, Brother! Mittens can't retire to
> LaJolla soon enough!
>
> BTW: You know that national polls mean absolutely
> nothing, right?
>
> The only states that matter are Ohio, Florida,
> Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
>
> Thanks, though, for your meaningless post.
Okay Dope.
Ohio....RCP Average 10/5 - 10/13 -- -- 48.3 46.1 Obama +2.2 toss up
Florida...RCP Average 10/7 - 10/14 -- -- 49.3 46.8 Romney +2.5 toss up
Virginia...RCP Average 10/4 - 10/14 -- -- 48.4 47.6 Obama +0.8 toss up
Nevada...RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
New Hampshire...RCP Average 10/6 - 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
Colorado...RCP Average 10/4 - 10/15 -- -- 48.0 47.3 Romney +0.7 toss up
This gives Romney Co & Fla with 38 electorals
Obama the rest with 41 and sinking fast.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Reality Star
()
Date: October 17, 2012 08:52PM
Thomas Sowell Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ohio....RCP Average 10/5 -
> 10/13 -- -- 48.3 46.1 Obama +2.2 toss up
>
> Florida...RCP Average 10/7 -
> 10/14 -- -- 49.3 46.8 Romney +2.5 toss up
>
> Virginia...RCP Average 10/4 -
> 10/14 -- -- 48.4 47.6 Obama +0.8 toss up
>
> Nevada...RCP Average 10/6 -
> 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
>
> New Hampshire...RCP Average 10/6 -
> 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
>
> Colorado...RCP Average 10/4 -
> 10/15 -- -- 48.0 47.3 Romney +0.7 toss up
>
> This gives Romney Co & Fla with 38 electorals
>
> Obama the rest with 41 and sinking fast.
RCP Obama 294/Mittens 244 with no toss-up states.
Too bad fro you, Douche.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ohio....RCP Average 10/5 -
> 10/13 -- -- 48.3 46.1 Obama +2.2 toss up
>
> Florida...RCP Average 10/7 -
> 10/14 -- -- 49.3 46.8 Romney +2.5 toss up
>
> Virginia...RCP Average 10/4 -
> 10/14 -- -- 48.4 47.6 Obama +0.8 toss up
>
> Nevada...RCP Average 10/6 -
> 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
>
> New Hampshire...RCP Average 10/6 -
> 10/15 -- -- 49.0 46.0 Obama +3.0 toss up
>
> Colorado...RCP Average 10/4 -
> 10/15 -- -- 48.0 47.3 Romney +0.7 toss up
>
> This gives Romney Co & Fla with 38 electorals
>
> Obama the rest with 41 and sinking fast.
RCP Obama 294/Mittens 244 with no toss-up states.
Too bad fro you, Douche.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
YellowDog
()
Date: October 17, 2012 10:29PM
Teacher, TEACHER!!!!
Barack is getting the answer right again. And he kicked my ASS on the playground!!
Attachments:
Barack is getting the answer right again. And he kicked my ASS on the playground!!
Attachments:
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
HOA MGR
()
Date: October 17, 2012 10:40PM
I've changed my Hope.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Bill.N.
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:00AM
Thomas Sowell Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know this has to be depressing for you Bill
> knowing your background. But it is over.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? (If you don't get the joke, watch Animal House.)
Seriously though, while I'm sure you enjoy the idea of me gnashing my teeth on the latest poll numbers the reality is that I've been discounting NATIONAL poll numbers for some time. Did it back at the beginning of the year when someone was boasting that "Generic Republican Candidate" was pounding Obama. Did it when polls seemed to show Obama pulling away, and am doing so now. My position on this election is now as it has been for months, namely it comes down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
And much as I enjoy your Gallup poll conspiracy theory the Gallup numbers at that point were not much different that what other pollsters were reporting at the time.
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know this has to be depressing for you Bill
> knowing your background. But it is over.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? (If you don't get the joke, watch Animal House.)
Seriously though, while I'm sure you enjoy the idea of me gnashing my teeth on the latest poll numbers the reality is that I've been discounting NATIONAL poll numbers for some time. Did it back at the beginning of the year when someone was boasting that "Generic Republican Candidate" was pounding Obama. Did it when polls seemed to show Obama pulling away, and am doing so now. My position on this election is now as it has been for months, namely it comes down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
And much as I enjoy your Gallup poll conspiracy theory the Gallup numbers at that point were not much different that what other pollsters were reporting at the time.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
dj
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:05AM
maybe the brothas can help pack this silly chimps crap.
Time for financial prosperity!
Time for financial prosperity!
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Ito
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:09AM
You gotta love the people who were touting unskewedpolls.com a month ago are now quoting every single result from every single poll these days like it is gospel.
The Gallup poll conspiracy stuff is a nice touch too. I really wonder what people are going to read once this election is over -- the Big Foot and Alien Abduction blogs must be missing their daily viewers.
I hadn't even heard of the Gallup Poll stuff, but apparently this conspiracy theory has been going on for a while.
To get a sense of reality of what this is about: http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/09/06/the-anatomy-of-a-daily-callerspiracy-theory/189772
The Gallup poll conspiracy stuff is a nice touch too. I really wonder what people are going to read once this election is over -- the Big Foot and Alien Abduction blogs must be missing their daily viewers.
I hadn't even heard of the Gallup Poll stuff, but apparently this conspiracy theory has been going on for a while.
To get a sense of reality of what this is about: http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/09/06/the-anatomy-of-a-daily-callerspiracy-theory/189772
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
postpoppunk
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:13AM
http://www.fairfaxunderground.com/forum/read/40/1023416.html
The link above contains information on the most accurate predictor of presidential elections.
A Minor Threat
The link above contains information on the most accurate predictor of presidential elections.
A Minor Threat
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
not surprised
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:13AM
The probable script for 2008 and 2012 has always been for the big banks to get their bailouts in 2008 and 2009 in exchange for some watered down regulatory reform, stonewall the drafting of the regulatory laws until the next election, and get a Republican back in the White House to kill the new regulations before the significant ones take effect.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
facepalm
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:23AM
Ito Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You gotta love the people who were touting
> unskewedpolls.com a month ago are now quoting
> every single result from every single poll these
> days like it is gospel.
>
> The Gallup poll conspiracy stuff is a nice touch
> too. I really wonder what people are going to read
> once this election is over -- the Big Foot and
> Alien Abduction blogs must be missing their daily
> viewers.
>
> I hadn't even heard of the Gallup Poll stuff, but
> apparently this conspiracy theory has been going
> on for a while.
>
> To get a sense of reality of what this is about:
> http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/09/06/the-anatom
> y-of-a-daily-callerspiracy-theory/189772
You're actually citing Media Matters as some source of record? lmao
You realize that much of that "story" is based on emails that they were provided by someone at Gallup who forwarded internal emails to them which show that they were in fact feeling under some pressure. And the fact is that they did change their methodology accordingly.
Now whether the DOJ suit was revived because of it is a different matter but if you don't think that there are political pressures put on groups like that, then you're just not being realistic.
-------------------------------------------------------
> You gotta love the people who were touting
> unskewedpolls.com a month ago are now quoting
> every single result from every single poll these
> days like it is gospel.
>
> The Gallup poll conspiracy stuff is a nice touch
> too. I really wonder what people are going to read
> once this election is over -- the Big Foot and
> Alien Abduction blogs must be missing their daily
> viewers.
>
> I hadn't even heard of the Gallup Poll stuff, but
> apparently this conspiracy theory has been going
> on for a while.
>
> To get a sense of reality of what this is about:
> http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/09/06/the-anatom
> y-of-a-daily-callerspiracy-theory/189772
You're actually citing Media Matters as some source of record? lmao
You realize that much of that "story" is based on emails that they were provided by someone at Gallup who forwarded internal emails to them which show that they were in fact feeling under some pressure. And the fact is that they did change their methodology accordingly.
Now whether the DOJ suit was revived because of it is a different matter but if you don't think that there are political pressures put on groups like that, then you're just not being realistic.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Ito
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:28AM
Yeah Media Matters is not a reputable source by any means, but if you do a Google search for "Axelrod vs. Gallup" you only get 10,000 pages from right-wing conspiracy blogs basically parroting the same stuff.
One guy makes it up and then it gets copied and pasted to hundreds of blogs. Then people comment on it and before long it seems like it makes some sense.
Kudos to the Media Matters site for at least coming up with an alternate explanation.
One guy makes it up and then it gets copied and pasted to hundreds of blogs. Then people comment on it and before long it seems like it makes some sense.
Kudos to the Media Matters site for at least coming up with an alternate explanation.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Ito
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:32AM
An interesting thing to read about is how scientific polling got its start. FDR wasn't happy about the results of Gallup polls back then either.
http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2010/10/75-years-ago-first-gallup-poll.html
http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2010/10/75-years-ago-first-gallup-poll.html
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
facepalm
()
Date: October 18, 2012 12:46AM
Ito Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah Media Matters is not a reputable source by
> any means, but if you do a Google search for
> "Axelrod vs. Gallup" you only get 10,000 pages
> from right-wing conspiracy blogs basically
> parroting the same stuff.
>
> One guy makes it up and then it gets copied and
> pasted to hundreds of blogs. Then people comment
> on it and before long it seems like it makes some
> sense.
>
> Kudos to the Media Matters site for at least
> coming up with an alternate explanation.
Oh OK, so Media Matters makes up some crap on the other side, leaves out some significant info, and "Ben Smith's" some of it (i.e., waves it away), that makes it worthwhile? lol Same thing happens with every dumb talking point story that the left comes up with. It gets copied to every left-leaning "news" site like Huffington, etc., and blogs everywhere.
In any case, here's a perfect and very typical example of how MM attempts to play things off while presenting the "facts."
"The emails obtained by the Caller show that in discussing Axelrod's tweet, a Gallup employee mentioned that "the White House 'has asked' a senior Gallup staffer 'to come over and explain our methodology too," and another made a Godfather joke about the purported "pressure."
The Caller claims these emails "directly contradict" Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs' statement earlier this week, "I have no knowledge of any discussions of anybody on the campaign side with Gallup." That is false. The emails indicate direct communication between the White House and Gallup, not the campaign. Axelrod left the White House more than a year before the emails were sent."
So they're parsing DC's comments re pressuring Gallup by attempting to distinguish between the "White House" and "from the campaign" because Alexrod left the White House? Gimme a fucking break.
Whether it came from the White House or the campaign isn't the issue, yet they try to play it as if it was in order to dismiss the more significant aspect that it would appear from Gallup's own internal emails that they were in fact contacted re this by someone representing Obama whether at the White House or the campaign.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah Media Matters is not a reputable source by
> any means, but if you do a Google search for
> "Axelrod vs. Gallup" you only get 10,000 pages
> from right-wing conspiracy blogs basically
> parroting the same stuff.
>
> One guy makes it up and then it gets copied and
> pasted to hundreds of blogs. Then people comment
> on it and before long it seems like it makes some
> sense.
>
> Kudos to the Media Matters site for at least
> coming up with an alternate explanation.
Oh OK, so Media Matters makes up some crap on the other side, leaves out some significant info, and "Ben Smith's" some of it (i.e., waves it away), that makes it worthwhile? lol Same thing happens with every dumb talking point story that the left comes up with. It gets copied to every left-leaning "news" site like Huffington, etc., and blogs everywhere.
In any case, here's a perfect and very typical example of how MM attempts to play things off while presenting the "facts."
"The emails obtained by the Caller show that in discussing Axelrod's tweet, a Gallup employee mentioned that "the White House 'has asked' a senior Gallup staffer 'to come over and explain our methodology too," and another made a Godfather joke about the purported "pressure."
The Caller claims these emails "directly contradict" Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs' statement earlier this week, "I have no knowledge of any discussions of anybody on the campaign side with Gallup." That is false. The emails indicate direct communication between the White House and Gallup, not the campaign. Axelrod left the White House more than a year before the emails were sent."
So they're parsing DC's comments re pressuring Gallup by attempting to distinguish between the "White House" and "from the campaign" because Alexrod left the White House? Gimme a fucking break.
Whether it came from the White House or the campaign isn't the issue, yet they try to play it as if it was in order to dismiss the more significant aspect that it would appear from Gallup's own internal emails that they were in fact contacted re this by someone representing Obama whether at the White House or the campaign.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Ito
()
Date: October 18, 2012 01:18AM
This conspiracy theory only makes sense if you believe that Gallup, as an organization, would seriously feel threatened by the Obama administration. If you read the historical link about Roosevelt vs. Gallup, you would see that politicians have been angry at pollsters ever since scientific polling started.
Gallup knows that it will still be around long after the Obama administration is history.
I have no doubt that the political campaign pressured Gallup. The Romney campaign has done its best to pressure and spin these polling organizations as much as possible too.
The problem with all of this is that prognosticators have one major goal that keeps them in business: accurately predict outcomes.
The only reason why pollsters stay in business is if they get the result right the majority of the time. If they skew their results, they risk killing their business.
Now is the Justice Department biased? Is their lawsuit part of a political vendetta? Perhaps. What will eventually happen? It will be decided in court. If the charges are without merit (and the next administration continues to pursue the case), then Gallup will win.
I really can't believe I'm actually arguing a conspiracy theory, but I guess that's what attracts people to them.
Gallup knows that it will still be around long after the Obama administration is history.
I have no doubt that the political campaign pressured Gallup. The Romney campaign has done its best to pressure and spin these polling organizations as much as possible too.
The problem with all of this is that prognosticators have one major goal that keeps them in business: accurately predict outcomes.
The only reason why pollsters stay in business is if they get the result right the majority of the time. If they skew their results, they risk killing their business.
Now is the Justice Department biased? Is their lawsuit part of a political vendetta? Perhaps. What will eventually happen? It will be decided in court. If the charges are without merit (and the next administration continues to pursue the case), then Gallup will win.
I really can't believe I'm actually arguing a conspiracy theory, but I guess that's what attracts people to them.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
WingNut
()
Date: October 18, 2012 11:08AM
Dingle Barry will make far more money writing books, speaking and tying himself to greenie scams ala Al Gore.
AS a writer and a lecturer, he will be able to critique US policy without having any of the accountability he had as president. He wil serve as a cheerleader and a surrogate for lefty causes and probably be even more Jimmy Carter like.
AS a writer and a lecturer, he will be able to critique US policy without having any of the accountability he had as president. He wil serve as a cheerleader and a surrogate for lefty causes and probably be even more Jimmy Carter like.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Thomas Sowell
()
Date: October 18, 2012 11:18AM
Bill.N. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thomas Sowell Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I know this has to be depressing for you Bill
> > knowing your background. But it is over.
>
> Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
> (If you don't get the joke, watch Animal House.)
>
> Seriously though, while I'm sure you enjoy the
> idea of me gnashing my teeth on the latest poll
> numbers the reality is that I've been discounting
> NATIONAL poll numbers for some time. Did it back
> at the beginning of the year when someone was
> boasting that "Generic Republican Candidate" was
> pounding Obama. Did it when polls seemed to show
> Obama pulling away, and am doing so now. My
> position on this election is now as it has been
> for months, namely it comes down to Pennsylvania,
> Ohio and Florida.
>
> And much as I enjoy your Gallup poll conspiracy
> theory the Gallup numbers at that point were not
> much different that what other pollsters were
> reporting at the time.
Your Belushi reference shows your comedic genius my friend. Excellent reply! I was disarmed immediately as laughter ensued.
But alas we disagree. The only poll Gallup compared to right before Axlerod intervening was Rassmusen which was using the same weighted sample as Gallup at the time. Axlerod makes a few contacts then all of the sudden Gallup shifted their weighted sample from app. 4 points +Obama to 9 points +Obama bringing them more in line with WSJ/NBC and others.
The polls showing Obama way up were using samples weighted as high as 5 points higher than the 2008 election model which would say that there is even more enthusiasm for Obama supporters to vote now than 08. That simply isn't the case.
It's just like this tremendous swing in most polls to Romney since the first debate. There is no way millions of women in Ohio and other swing states suddenly changed their allegiance virtually overnight after one debate. Rather the polling organizations showing Obama way up before the debate shifted their weighting closer to reality.
In this way I do believe certain pollsters try to create news rather than quantify real information. As we get closer to election day they adjust so as to preserve whatever reputation for accuracy they have.
It is comparable to the BLS unemployment statistics. They dropped off a few million people out of the work force to get their 7.9 or whatever. Now if you are one of the 24 million Americans that are either unemployed, underemployed or not looking period is a little number like 7.9% from a nebulous entity like the BL really going to effect your vote? I think not.
Same thing with the polls. It wasn't a month ago all the pundits, even conservatives, were saying, "it's over". Romney's toast. that made most Romney supporters feel like crap which is exactly what many polls were designed to do. Suppress Republican enthusiasm. This would work if Obama had just a few things he could trumpet other than OBL and GM.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thomas Sowell Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I know this has to be depressing for you Bill
> > knowing your background. But it is over.
>
> Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
> (If you don't get the joke, watch Animal House.)
>
> Seriously though, while I'm sure you enjoy the
> idea of me gnashing my teeth on the latest poll
> numbers the reality is that I've been discounting
> NATIONAL poll numbers for some time. Did it back
> at the beginning of the year when someone was
> boasting that "Generic Republican Candidate" was
> pounding Obama. Did it when polls seemed to show
> Obama pulling away, and am doing so now. My
> position on this election is now as it has been
> for months, namely it comes down to Pennsylvania,
> Ohio and Florida.
>
> And much as I enjoy your Gallup poll conspiracy
> theory the Gallup numbers at that point were not
> much different that what other pollsters were
> reporting at the time.
Your Belushi reference shows your comedic genius my friend. Excellent reply! I was disarmed immediately as laughter ensued.
But alas we disagree. The only poll Gallup compared to right before Axlerod intervening was Rassmusen which was using the same weighted sample as Gallup at the time. Axlerod makes a few contacts then all of the sudden Gallup shifted their weighted sample from app. 4 points +Obama to 9 points +Obama bringing them more in line with WSJ/NBC and others.
The polls showing Obama way up were using samples weighted as high as 5 points higher than the 2008 election model which would say that there is even more enthusiasm for Obama supporters to vote now than 08. That simply isn't the case.
It's just like this tremendous swing in most polls to Romney since the first debate. There is no way millions of women in Ohio and other swing states suddenly changed their allegiance virtually overnight after one debate. Rather the polling organizations showing Obama way up before the debate shifted their weighting closer to reality.
In this way I do believe certain pollsters try to create news rather than quantify real information. As we get closer to election day they adjust so as to preserve whatever reputation for accuracy they have.
It is comparable to the BLS unemployment statistics. They dropped off a few million people out of the work force to get their 7.9 or whatever. Now if you are one of the 24 million Americans that are either unemployed, underemployed or not looking period is a little number like 7.9% from a nebulous entity like the BL really going to effect your vote? I think not.
Same thing with the polls. It wasn't a month ago all the pundits, even conservatives, were saying, "it's over". Romney's toast. that made most Romney supporters feel like crap which is exactly what many polls were designed to do. Suppress Republican enthusiasm. This would work if Obama had just a few things he could trumpet other than OBL and GM.
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Manny Romney
()
Date: October 18, 2012 11:21AM
Three more weeks
Re: GALLUP: R 51% O 45% (The beginning of the end for Obama)
Posted by:
Realist
()
Date: October 18, 2012 11:24AM
Swing State To-Do List (November 6, 2012):
-- Send Mittens out to LaJolla for a nice long rest.
-- Send President Obama back to the White House for another four years.
-- Send Mittens out to LaJolla for a nice long rest.
-- Send President Obama back to the White House for another four years.