Re: High School Football 2022
Posted by:
nova fan
()
Date: October 23, 2022 12:32PM
My weekly review of how I did with my picks. Also, I'll mention that I have two season wide predictions. First, I predicted when Woodson was 3-1 that they would not win another game this season. I'm still on course for that one. Second, last week, I predicted that Herndon would win out. I'm on course for that one, and I stand by that prediction.
Also, to your point about the spreads, I think what matters is consistency on both sides. If I take a favorite to both win and cover, I count my pick against the spread to be correct if the favorite wins by the exact amount of the spread (or more). If I take a favorite to win, but not cover, I consider that pick (against the spread) correct only if the underdog wins outright, or the favorite wins by a margin that is less than (and not less than or equal to) your published spreads. That came into play this week. For those who want to play like they do in Vegas, just assume that when the spread is 14 points for example, I'm picking as if the spread were 13 1/2.
parentof2 - wk 8 results Wrote:
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> In regards to the user(s) posting about me
> "nailing the spread," I don't really do it like we
> were playing blackjack or anything like that. For
> example, if you placed a bet on FanDuel or any of
> those apps on Tennessee -3 against Alabama last
> weekend, you would've won as Tennessee won 52-49.
> I do the same thing, so there's an argument to be
> made on both sides. I am just stating my reasoning
> behind it all. I really do appreciate all of you
> guys interacting with my posts.
>
>
> 1. Annandale (-6) @ Falls Church
> - Annandale won 28-27, failing to cover. Good win
> for the Atoms nonetheless.
I took Falls Church to win outright. This counts as wrong straight up, but correct against the spread.
>
> 2. Centreville (-30) @ South Lakes
> - Centreville won 46-6, releasing some post
> Madison anger in the process.
Just the reverse here. I took Centreville to win, but not cover. Correct straight up, wrong against the spread.
>
> 3. Chantilly (-17) @ Oakton
> - Chantilly won and covered, 29-7.
Correctly picked Chantilly to both win and to cover. I don't know what I was afraid of.
>
> 4. Fairfax @ Lake Braddock (-14)
> - Fairfax won 29-14. Big win for them. I watched
> the first quarter and let me tell ya, Tony Rojas
> is the real deal. The Bruins looked almost as if
> they were scared to tackle him when he had the
> ball on offense and it seemed like he was
> constantly making tackles for a loss. Their QB was
> mediocre but with a player like Rojas, Fairfax can
> get away with it.
I hedged this one, taking Lake Braddock to win, but not to cover, making my straight up wrong, but correct against the spread. I still have this image from 4-5 years ago from when Fairfax was just simply awful, and I have trouble wrapping my mind around the fact that they are actually good (and currently sitting in first place in the Occoquan district standings.
>
> 5. Hayfield (-49) @ Lee
> - Hayfield won 49-7. JV kids played 3 quarters.
No pick with a spread >35 points. I characterized this as a second "bye" week for Hayfield, and that seems to be correctly. Glad Hayfield's sophomores got some playing time.
>
> 6. Herndon (-17) @ McLean
> - Herndon won and covered, 49-7. 6 in a row for
> the Hornets. I agree with the user who said
> Herndon could win out, I believe they will.
Correctly picked Herndon to win and cover. As I said above, I think Herndon is going to win out. Good for them.
>
> 7. Marshall @ Langley (-15)
> - Langley won 35-20, nailed this one.
Great call on the spread. For my part, I took Langley to win, but not cover. By the rule that I apply (see above), I'm counting this as an incorrect call against the spread. If I had taken Langley to win and cover, I'd give myself credit for calling both sides correctly.
>
> 8. Mount Vernon @ Edison (-10)
> - Edison won 35-0, I'd be lying if I said I
> expected this result. Were the Majors banged up?
> Good win for the Eagles, who now have 2 weeks to
> prepare for Hayfield.
Correctly picked Edison to win and cover. I thought they would cover a 10 point spread, but I didn't think they would win by much more. Edison has been impressive thus far. This win, coupled with other results, has vaulted Edison into 6th place in the Occoquan Region playoff standings. I had thought it would be necessary for Edison to beat Hayfield in 2 weeks to make the playoffs, but now I'm not so sure (and I think National will end up sending both Edison and Hayfield).
>
> 9. Robinson (-49) @ Woodson
> - Robinson won 70-7... WTW has been outscored 252
> to 13 in the last 4 games. Yikes... How long until
> Henderson says screw this and leaves?
No pick with a spread >35 points. A couple of weeks ago, South County beat Woodson by "only" 35. Wonder if they are a bit embarrassed that they didn't win by more?
>
> 10. South County (-24) @ West Potomac
> - South County won 34-14, failing to cover. The
> game was actually closer than the score says.
Correctly picked South County to win, but I thought they would cover. Got that part of the pick wrong.
>
> 11. T.C. Williams @ West Springfield (-14)
> - The Spartans won and covered, 34-3.
Correctly picked West Springfield to both win and cover. This was an expensive loss for TCW. This loss dropped them from 7th to 9th in the playoff standings, which is outside the playoffs. They do have one more win on their schedule, their season finale against Woodson, but I don't think that one win will be enough to get them in. I think they're going to have to beat South County to make the playoffs. And I think that will be tough.
>
> 12. Wakefield @ Yorktown (-42)
> - Yorktown won 38-0. It was 31-0 early in the 2nd
> so it looks like Hanson took the foot off the gas
> early.
No pick with the spread > 35 points. The fact that Yorktown let off the gas (and hopefully put their sophomores in) is why I don't pick when the spread is >35 points. Too many variable.
>
> 13. Washington-Lee (-21) @ Stuart
> - W&L won handily, 42-0.
Correctly picked W-L to both win and cover.
>
> 14. Westfield @ Madison (-7)
> - Like many, I was upset to see that the camera at
> Madison was experincing technical diffculties at
> the worst possible time. Madison won 21-16
> however, anyone have any insight on this game?
> Based off the score, it looks like it was a good
> one.
Correctly picked Madison to win, but I thought they would cover, so I got that one wrong.
>
> 15. Woodgrove @ Stone Bridge (-35)
> - Stone Bridge won 49-28 on Homecoming. I'm
> guessing some reserves got a chance to play.
Correctly picked Stone Bridge to win, but I thought they would also cover, which I got wrong.