Re: High School Football 2021
Date: September 26, 2021 01:03PM
Thanks again for the spreads; I really enjoy picking against them. Here goes ...
parentof2 - week 6 Wrote:
> Crazy we are already halfway through the season
> y’all! Only 2 games have been affected as well,
> which is great. We are starting to see who is for
> real around the area. Thank you guys for all the
> positive comments and support as well, much
> appreciated! Couple of things I wanted to air out
> before getting to this week’s spreads.
> - Highland Springs lost by 1 point to a school
> from WV 2 weeks ago on the same night Oscar Smith
> lost to Bosco. (When was the last time they both
> lost on the same night?) That’s a significant
> loss for HSHS because its the first time they’ve
> lost 2 games in a season since 2013. The path to
> back-to-back rings for Stone Bridge looks a lot
> more likely to happen now unless HSHS gets it
> - Speaking of SB, I never liked how they refuse to
> schedule anyone good. Tuscarora (Class 4 favorite)
> is down the road and they don’t even play them,
> just a scrimmage. Oscar Smith played Bosco and has
> a 9 game schedule because I’m sure the DSA
> wanted to schedule another powerhouse and it fell
> through. Stone Bridge beats the shit out of
> everyone, they need to start scheduling out of
> town stronger programs.
> - Tuscarora has a very, very good team and are my
> pick to win the Class 4 State Championship. Stone
> Bridge is my Class 5 favorite and Oscar Smith for
> Class 6. This is all as of today and can change,
> ya never know what can happen. I liked Freedom a
> lot but they lost to Gar-Field for the 2nd year in
> a row, so I’m not sure what to think of them.
> They took Stone Bridge to the wire and have crazy
> tons of talent. I think Overton turns it around
> and we will be seeing Freedom v. Oscar Smith later
> in the year.
> Alright y’all, let's get to this weeks slate.
> Quite a few schools are on a bye this week, but
> nonetheless, here we go.
> 1. Annandale @ Bishop O’Connell (-9)
> - Don’t know anything about O’Connell football
> but they are 2-2 and Annandale is horrible, so
> there you have it. Game will also be played on
Bishop O'Connell is more of a basketball school, and to show that, they recruit 20 year olds to play for them (Google "Junior Etou"). About 8 years ago, they hired a loudmouth coach who was bragging that they could win the WCAC, which, at that time, was one division. That didn't turn out so well, and this convinced the WCAC to go to divisions in football play. Still, I think they are probably better than Annandale, so I'll pick them to win and cover.
> 2. Centreville (-38) @ Woodson
> - Score will be similar to the
> Centreville/Wakefield game. Running clock 2nd
Woodson faces an opponent that is about as opposite of Lee that can be imagined. Centreville wins this easily. Since the spread is more than 35, I'll stick with my policy not to pick against the spread, but I won't be surprised if Centreville beats them by this margin, or even more.
> 3. Edison @ Fairfax (-17)
> - Rebels (or Lions) get the win on Homecoming.
When was the last time that Fairfax was a 17 point Favorite??? Probably a decade. I'll take Fairfax to win and cover.
> 4. Lee @ West Potomac (-40)
> - Lee has 4 points in 4 games this year. Yes, you
> read that right. They have 2 safeties on the year
> and have yet to score a touchdown. I actually feel
> bad for the kids. I would've made the spread
> higher but it's WP's Homecoming and I think Coach
> will let the reserves play. Maybe Lee scores a TD
> this week?
When trying to assign a point spread for games involving Lee, I think the formula is to start by identifying an appropriate multiple of 7 based on how strong the opponent is, then subtract 2 points for the inevitable safety that Lee has a knack for scoring. A 40 point spread follows this formula. I'll pick West Po to win. No pick against a >35 point spread.
> 5. Lightridge @ Thomas Jefferson (-3)
> - Lightridge is a new school in Aldie, I’m not
> even sure they are fielding a Varsity team yet,
> but I will assume they are. TJ is 4-0 and it’s
> time for them to play a National District schedule
> again. They can compete in that district so they
> should stop backing down in my opinion.
Dare I say TJ wins and covers? Yes, I do.
> 6. Madison (-24) @ Marshall
> - Warhawks will keep rolling.
I had higher hopes for Marshall. Madison wins and covers.
> 7. Oakton @ West Springfield (-8)
> - Co-game of the week, one of the reasons being
> that both teams are 4-0 for the first time since
> 2012 for Oakton and 2005 for West Springfield. The
> Spartans should win their Homecoming game, is
> Adrian Mejia’s (QB1) injury serious? If Oakton
> wins this game and can compete in the Concorde, it
> may be time to start taking them seriously again.
I'm glad Oakton has recovered (it's been a bad stretch for them), but I'm not quite sold yet. I'll take West Springfield to win and cover. I'll admit, I think this is the toughest game to pick.
> 8. South County (-28) @ Mount Vernon
> - Down year for the Majors, I was tempted to make
> the spread on this one higher.
South County wins and covers.
> 9. South Lakes @ Lake Braddock (-17)
> - Intriguing game, it was almost my co-game of the
> week. I’m not sure what to make of SL, this will
> be a big test for them. If they get blown out,
> yikes. SL is having a down(ish) year so far but
> they’re better than Annandale, so LB better have
> a good week of practice, they have a chance to
> make a statement.
Lake Braddock wins, but doesn't cover.
> 10. Stone Bridge (-38) @ Broad Run
> - 0-5 Broad Run is not gonna have a good time
> Friday night.
Spread was changed to StoneBridge -20. I'll take them to win and cover that spread.
> 11. T.C. Williams @ Chantilly (-6)
> - Game of the week. I really like this game. The
> Titans are 4-0 and have only had 1 close game
> against SL. They have athletes all over the place
> as we all know. Chantilly is going to have to win
> this game in the trenches and find a way to
> neutralize the Titans’ athletes. Aidan Gobaira
> is going to have to constantly pressure the Titans
> QB and jump on them early.
I'd agree, game of the week. I think Chantilly wins and covers.
> 12. Wakefield (-3) @ Herndon
> - Meh. Toss up game.I think the Hornets are a
> little worse than the Warriors.
I agree. Wakefield wins and covers.
> 13. Yorktown (-21) @ McLean
> - The Patriots are 2-3 and have lost 3 in a row.
> That streak ends this week.
I agree, I think Yorktown wins, but I don't think they'll win by 21.