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The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Algebra 101 ()
Date: March 21, 2020 08:11AM

Given two data points, we can construct an exponential curve depicting the growth rate of Corona Virus in the U.S.

Point 1 (Feb 15, there were 12 known cases): (0,12)

Point 2 (Mar 20, there were 18980 known cases): (35, 18980)


Using those two points and solving equation f(t) = Ae^kt

You arrive at: f(t) = 12e^0.2105t


PREDICTIONS:

March 25th: f(40) = 12e^(0.2105*40) = 54,442 cases
March 30th: f(45) = 12e^(0.2105*45) = 155,968 cases
April 15th: f(60) = 12e^(0.2105*60) = 3,667,081 cases



Let's hope this maf is wrong.




Data point source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: girly men out the woodwork ()
Date: March 21, 2020 08:43AM

1. The curve is already flattening in Washington State, so you numbers are already wrong.

2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000 deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu season.

You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Extrapolation ()
Date: March 21, 2020 09:29AM

using the above equation we run the risk of ten times as many people having this virus as there are people... two data points might not be the best basis for long term projections.

Wash your hands, don’t cough on grandma, stop doing shitty math to scare people and CALM DOWN!

Unless social distancing killed your job the last two weeks, then you should probably freak out.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: nkjm9 ()
Date: March 21, 2020 10:04AM

Original poster is a hysterical moron. There were not even any new reported cases in Fairfax Health District yesterday. Not doubling every two days here.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: goddamn retards ()
Date: March 21, 2020 10:14AM

Well fuck. Next year about this time 478 Billion Americans will have the virus.

You people are hoopleheads.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: exactly ()
Date: March 21, 2020 04:30PM

nkjm9 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Original poster is a hysterical moron. There were
> not even any new reported cases in Fairfax Health
> District yesterday. Not doubling every two days
> here.


The Corona virus statistic thread is rambling and a bit drugged out but more real.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: reality1 ()
Date: March 21, 2020 05:21PM

Given it is 3/21 and the number is 24,142 at this point and doubling about every 3 days the original formula is a fairly good representation.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: I'm k. I think I'm gay. ()
Date: March 21, 2020 07:34PM

I need to give a blow job today.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Cp4jp ()
Date: March 22, 2020 08:55AM

Mathematics of coronavirus:

All Italians dead = a preferable thing
Many Chinese dead = a good thing
Most Iranians dead = a better thing
All the Boomers dead = the best thing

QED.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Racist Willie ()
Date: March 22, 2020 09:26AM

Cp4jp Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mathematics of coronavirus:
>
> All Italians dead = a preferable thing
> Many Chinese dead = a good thing
> Most Iranians dead = a better thing
> All the Boomers dead = the best thing
>
> QED.

Damn, can’t we get this virus to attack niggers?

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Dumfrieskid ()
Date: March 22, 2020 09:47AM

Your math includes a fatal mistake. It assumes that once a person has the virus they always have it. This is not true. They recover and should be taken out of the "has a case" data set. The numbers become much lower when you do that.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: rfgber ()
Date: March 23, 2020 04:33AM

Dumfrieskid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your math includes a fatal mistake. It assumes
> that once a person has the virus they always have
> it. This is not true. They recover and should be
> taken out of the "has a case" data set. The
> numbers become much lower when you do that.

you'll never fix the equation

anyhow - they are looking to kill the deadly forms (solves itself if the patient dies) and to CURB the virus until the immune system can fight it off - which we think it should given an advantage (we think it does)

the math was bore out very early on and dismissed as not worth calculating

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: dpcwk ()
Date: March 23, 2020 07:11AM

reality1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given it is 3/21 and the number is 24,142 at this
> point and doubling about every 3 days the original
> formula is a fairly good representation.


And in a few weeks the entire universe will be infected. Trillions and and trillions of humans.

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Algebra 101 ()
Date: March 24, 2020 08:03PM

Well well well.

Prediction 1 was pretty accurate.

Prediction was 54442 cases by March 25.
We are at 53443 cases with about 4 hours to go.

You just can't beat good old math. And yes, of course the exponential curve will flatten eventually. That goes without saying. The early part of the curve is well represented by this simple algebraic formula.

You may now proceed with the "retard" insults, my low functioning ffu friends!

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Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by: Archivist ()
Date: March 24, 2020 08:07PM

girly men out the woodwork Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. The curve is already flattening in Washington
> State, so you numbers are already wrong.
>
> 2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even
> your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000
> deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu
> season.
>
> You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.

Screenshotted to make fun of you later.
Attachments:
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