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Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: DEMS = DUMBASSES ()
Date: October 15, 2019 08:28PM

Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that

President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.

He’s going to absolutely adore this one.

According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.

In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming.

“In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable:

Will it return to its winning ways? The team takes into account how consumers feel about their finances, the performance of the stock market SPX, +1.00% and their job prospects. Essentially, today, they’re feeling pretty good.

“Under the current Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook, which does not forecast any recession, the 2020 election looks like Trump’s to lose,” the authors wrote. “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but, under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”

From the MarketWatch archives (August 2016): To professional economists, Trump isn’t even the second best candidate in the 2016 presidential election

Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes.

The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.

The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.


Shawn Langlois is an editor and writer for MarketWatch in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @slangwise.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-in-a-landslide-this-historically-accurate-model-predicts-exactly-that-2019-10-15

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Democrats Blew It ()
Date: October 15, 2019 08:37PM

Gun bans Health Care for Illegals And Mean Ugly faces screaming like Loud Mouth Liz Kamel Toe , And Booker to take America full on Communist

They got nothing , the semi- reasonable ones in the bunch Pete wont make it as the US will never accept a first husband when the POTUS is male , and the US Vet woman from Hawaii is too far to the center for todays leftist Dems running the party of Fools

In any event the two are still GUN GRABBERS and I and Millions wont vote for them

BECAUSE YOU CAN NEVER TRUST YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO A DEMOCRAT!

ONCE AMERICAN BLACKS GET THAT ITS ALL OVER FOR THE DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANMS ARE THE PARTY OF LINCOLN NOT THE KKK !

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Who Wants A Bad Economey ()
Date: October 15, 2019 08:48PM

Let the Good Times Roll with Trump!

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Hillary Won The Popular Vote ()
Date: October 15, 2019 09:21PM

Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought not worth voting, easy win for Hillary.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Dream on .... ()
Date: October 15, 2019 10:02PM

Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought not
> worth voting, easy win for Hillary.

Your numbers are made-up BULLSHIT.

A FEC report of the election recorded an official total of 136.7 million votes cast for President — more than any prior election.

Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for president was nearly 1% higher than 2012. Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, University of Florida Prof. Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans cast a ballot. 65.9 million of those ballots were counted for Clinton and just under 63 million for Trump, representing 20.3% (Clinton) and 19.4% (Trump) of a census estimate of U.S. population that day of 324 million. Considering a VAP of 250.6 million people and voting eligible population (VEP) of 230.6 million people, this is a turnout rate of 55.4% VAP and 60.2% VEP. Based on this estimate, voter turnout was up compared to 2012 (54.1% VAP) but down compared to 2008 (57.4% VAP).

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Impeached in 2020 ()
Date: October 15, 2019 10:42PM

Trump will find it very difficult to maintain the office of the President as he will be locked up in prison.....lol

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Elected in 2020 ()
Date: October 15, 2019 10:46PM

You Democrats are absolutely delusional.

You must be snorting some fucked up shit. When you come down from your trip, Trump will still be President.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: haha yeah ()
Date: October 15, 2019 10:56PM

Trump's a goner.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: haha yeah ()
Date: October 15, 2019 11:24PM

haha yeah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trump's a goner.


Gee, how many times have we heard that in the last 3 years?

Yup, absolutely delusional.

Go back to sniffing glue, the fucked up shit you're on now is rotting your brain.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: progs R fVcked in 2020 ()
Date: October 16, 2019 07:34AM

haha yeah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> haha yeah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Trump's a goner.
>
>
> Gee, how many times have we heard that in the last
> 3 years?
>
> Yup, absolutely delusional.
>
> Go back to sniffing glue, the fucked up shit
> you're on now is rotting your brain.


Progshits have been sentenced by Trump to sit in the corner, pick their boogers and occasionally blurt out sad, misspelled, turrets-like mutterings:

"Trump's a goner"


Just pathetic

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: blue firewall my ass ()
Date: October 16, 2019 07:41AM

Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought not
> worth voting, easy win for Hillary.


No, the democrats did show up. They just voted for Trump. And with Trump at 35% approval with blacks and 49% approval with hispanics, the ass-whipping he's going to lay on the dems in 2020 is going to be quite severe.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: DC Dad ()
Date: October 16, 2019 08:20AM

Elected in 2020 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You Democrats are absolutely delusional.


It's hard for them not to be, when every media outlet is on 24/7 cycle of "Trump is bad" content, so they start to think the entire country thinks that... not realizing most in the country just don't care about the media and have their own opinion.

Venture into our 'favorite' DCUM for a perfect example.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Not a fan of Trump ()
Date: October 16, 2019 08:48AM

I am by no means a fan of Trump. His policies are a disaster. The problem is the Dems aren't running on anything. What's their message?

The Dems should tell people why they're the better choice. Instead it's all about an impeachment that will fail and only serve to energize his base.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: smokie98 ()
Date: October 16, 2019 09:13AM

Not a fan of Trump Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am by no means a fan of Trump. His policies are
> . The problem is the Dems aren't running
> on anything. What's their message?

Just curious, what policies do you find being 'a disaster'? I realize the media paints everything as a failure, but if one ignores it and looks at the substance, what has failed?

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Tard-O-Meter ()
Date: October 16, 2019 09:40AM

Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought not
> worth voting, easy win for Hillary.

Go back to civics class retard. The president in the U.S. is elected by electoral votes, not the popular vote.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Hillary Won The Popular ()
Date: October 16, 2019 11:15AM

Tard-O-Meter Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> > democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought not
> > worth voting, easy win for Hillary.
>
> Go back to civics class retard. The president in
> the U.S. is elected by electoral votes, not the
> popular vote.

Pretty straight forward statement. Hillary won the popular vote in the 2016 election.

Why do Trump supporters get so upset with that statement?

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: ddbnj ()
Date: October 16, 2019 12:05PM

Hillary Won The Popular Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tard-O-Meter Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> > > democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought
> not
> > > worth voting, easy win for Hillary.
> >
> > Go back to civics class retard. The president
> in
> > the U.S. is elected by electoral votes, not the
> > popular vote.
>
> Pretty straight forward statement. Hillary won
> the popular vote in the 2016 election.
>
> Why do Trump supporters get so upset with that
> statement?


Not with only 1/3 of Democrats showing up.

Not that the popular vote makes any difference.

Why can't libtards read and get so upset with losing an election?

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Hillary won the most votes ()
Date: October 16, 2019 12:27PM

Hillary won the most votes, that's all I'm saying.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Hillary lost the most states ()
Date: October 16, 2019 12:30PM

Hillary won the most votes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary won the most votes, that's all I'm saying.


and....

 
Attachments:
trump-dancing-nobody-cares.gif

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: The Dems Message ()
Date: October 16, 2019 04:15PM

Open Borders: No matter how many illegals come in to overcrowd schools and raise low income housing prices like what's happening in Fairfax, plus the crime and illegal drugs being brought in with them

Free Heath Care For Illegals : You cant make this one up sadly its true

Gun Ban : Despite the protections of the 2nd amendment without reasonable regulation while letting Retired police keep their personal AR-15s who have no further law enforcement authority

Global Warming: So the rest of the world burns the fossil fuel large while world population will be want kills you

Bigger Government: So the people who took courses in college that they cant get a job with can become Feds making the competent Federal employees look bad and the people can pay higher taxes for little return

More Government Regulation : In your face job killers while they scream its the environment as if we Republicans want bad air and dirty water, Gaslighting at its worse

Health Care : Not a word about TORT REFORM To keep lawsuits from driving up medical and pharmaceutical costs. Someone just got a 8 billion dollars settlement in a suit which is ridiculous , Did they ever smoke drink or use a cell phone eat bacon or hot dogs ? Then Democrats are screaming that the GOP will not help with heath care when all they want is to socialize it and ruin what the majority of working people have already

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Dem Message ()
Date: October 16, 2019 07:20PM

And now the most burning issue for the Democrats for the 2020 Presidential Election:

“Last week, Ellen Degeneres was criticized after she and former President George W. Bush were seen laughing together at a football game. Ellen defended their friendship, saying, ‘We’re all different and I think that we’ve forgotten that that’s OK, that we’re all different,’” Cooper said at the conclusion of the debate. “So in that spirit, we’d like you to tell us about a friendship that you’ve had that would surprise us and what impacts it’s had on you and your beliefs.”

“The Daily Show” was quick to mock the moment with a picture of the faces of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden:


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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Low Income Housing Costs ()
Date: October 16, 2019 07:55PM

Illegals hurt the working and retired lower income American people the most. Its true that low income housing prices have risen because illegals group together in apts and other housing and can afford higher rents then would be normal

Democrats Hurt the Working Poor in America while favoring illegals and immigrants who cant support themselves

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Duke ()
Date: October 16, 2019 08:42PM

Hillary Won The Popular Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tard-O-Meter Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3 of
> > > democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought
> not
> > > worth voting, easy win for Hillary.
> >
> > Go back to civics class retard. The president
> in
> > the U.S. is elected by electoral votes, not the
> > popular vote.
>
> Pretty straight forward statement. Hillary won
> the popular vote in the 2016 election.
>
> Why do Trump supporters get so upset with that
> statement?

What the fuck did she win dickhead?

Remind me again who won.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: MAGA BITCHES ()
Date: October 18, 2019 10:21PM


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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Malohnia ()
Date: October 19, 2019 02:21PM

Duke Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary Won The Popular Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Tard-O-Meter Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Hillary Won The Popular Vote Wrote:
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> >
> > > -----
> > > > Hillary won the popular vote with only 1/3
> of
> > > > democrats showing up to vote. Dems thought
> > not
> > > > worth voting, easy win for Hillary.
> > >
> > > Go back to civics class retard. The president
> > in
> > > the U.S. is elected by electoral votes, not
> the
> > > popular vote.
> >
> > Pretty straight forward statement. Hillary won
> > the popular vote in the 2016 election.
> >
> > Why do Trump supporters get so upset with that
> > statement?
>
> What the fuck did she win dickhead?
>
> Remind me again who won.

America lost, bigly.

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Re: Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
Posted by: Trump 2020 ()
Date: October 19, 2019 07:40PM

Trump raises more than ALL the Democrat candidates COMBINED ….

“There’s a lot of love here for him,” says Steel, pointing to more than 1,000 Republicans, “donors at every level,” who have clamored for tickets to four events within the next 24 hours including a lunch Tuesday in Silicon Valley, two events in the Los Angeles/Beverly Hills area — a dinner Tuesday and a breakfast Wednesday — and another lunch in San Diego on Wednesday.

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