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Fairfax Underground
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
Fox News
()
Date: February 05, 2016 11:14PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/it-can-be-hard-to-predict-when-it-will-snow-in-washington-heres-why/2016/02/05/009eb8bc-b31f-11e5-a76a-0b5145e8679a_story.html
Every year, eager children, panicked parents, frustrated commuters and exasperated employers ask us the same thing: Why is it so difficult to forecast snow in the D.C. region?
Although forecasts were outstandingly accurate days in advance of January’s historic blizzard, that is not always the case. In fact it almost never is.
Each storm is unique, and the slightest variations in storm track, surface temperature and atmospheric moisture can lead to dramatically different outcomes.
To make forecasting even more difficult, Washington is between two regional climate zones: the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream to the east, and the Blue Ridge and Appalachian mountains to the west. This creates a special transition zone, with warm air on one side and cold air on the other.
The elevation change between the low-lying areas east of Washington and the high elevations to the west also plays a critical role in snowfall forecasts. It is more likely to snow in higher elevations simply because it is colder. Sometimes, just this slight deviation in temperature can make or break a forecast.
On the next pages, we use a variety of winter storm types to illustrate four common scenarios: a big snow, a few inches, an ice storm and rain. As for the dreaded wintry mix? It can show up in any of the scenarios. Wintry mix is a catchall term meteorologists use. It means at least two types of precipitation will fall, and it will not be pretty.
The big snow
The biggest snows and most ruthless blizzards are almost always caused by the kind of storm people know best: the nor’easter, named for the direction from which the wind blows onto the East Coast. A nor’easter feeds on moisture and heat from the warm Gulf Stream. If the storm tracks north very close to the Mid-Atlantic coast, a nor’easter can dump a boatload of snow along the Interstate 95 corridor.
Notable storms:
Feb. 5-6, 2010, Snowmaggedon, 18 to 32 inches
Jan. 6-8, 1996, Blizzard of 1996, 17 to 25 inches
Feb. 18-19, 1979, Presidents’ Day snowstorm, 16 to 26 inches
A few inches
The vast majority of the region’s snowstorms consist of a glancing blow — just a few inches but enough to wreak havoc. We see it play out every winter, often in the form of an Alberta clipper, which gets its name from the Canadian province where the storm tend s to originate. Clippers are cold enough to deliver snow if they track south of Washington, but they tend to be moisture-starved, so we don’t often see big snow totals from them.
The ice storm
The D.C. region is particularly prone to ice because of its proximity to the mountains, which act as a dam for the cold air drifting in from the north. Subfreezing air pools near the ground so precipitation that might have otherwise fallen as rain becomes supercooled and freezes instantly when it makes contact with the ground.
Notable storms:
Feb. 10-11, 1994, up to 3 inches of ice
Feb. 14, 2007, Valentine’s Day storm, 4 to 8 inches of snow and sleet; up to 3/4 inch of ice
A cold rain
All winter storms have the potential to wind up as a cold rain, given the right track. One type that stands out, though, is the “Appalachian runner.” This storm tracks north along the Appalachian Mountains, well west of Washington, which puts most of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector of the storm. Cut off from the cold air, precipitation may begin as snow or a wintry mix but quickly turns to rain.
Notable forecast “busts”
Dec. 26, 2010
Forecast: Up to 12 inches
What fell: Not even an inch
March 6, 2013
Snowquester
Forecast: 5-10 inches
What fell: Not even an inch
The reverse forecast bust
The slightest variation in storm track can lead to another interesting type of bust: one where little or no snow is expected, yet as much as a foot ends up falling.
Notable reverse forecast busts
Jan. 25, 2000
Forecast: Rain
What fell: 9 to 18 inches of snow
March 9, 1999
Forecast: Rain
What fell: 8 to 12 inches of snow
Every year, eager children, panicked parents, frustrated commuters and exasperated employers ask us the same thing: Why is it so difficult to forecast snow in the D.C. region?
Although forecasts were outstandingly accurate days in advance of January’s historic blizzard, that is not always the case. In fact it almost never is.
Each storm is unique, and the slightest variations in storm track, surface temperature and atmospheric moisture can lead to dramatically different outcomes.
To make forecasting even more difficult, Washington is between two regional climate zones: the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream to the east, and the Blue Ridge and Appalachian mountains to the west. This creates a special transition zone, with warm air on one side and cold air on the other.
The elevation change between the low-lying areas east of Washington and the high elevations to the west also plays a critical role in snowfall forecasts. It is more likely to snow in higher elevations simply because it is colder. Sometimes, just this slight deviation in temperature can make or break a forecast.
On the next pages, we use a variety of winter storm types to illustrate four common scenarios: a big snow, a few inches, an ice storm and rain. As for the dreaded wintry mix? It can show up in any of the scenarios. Wintry mix is a catchall term meteorologists use. It means at least two types of precipitation will fall, and it will not be pretty.
The big snow
The biggest snows and most ruthless blizzards are almost always caused by the kind of storm people know best: the nor’easter, named for the direction from which the wind blows onto the East Coast. A nor’easter feeds on moisture and heat from the warm Gulf Stream. If the storm tracks north very close to the Mid-Atlantic coast, a nor’easter can dump a boatload of snow along the Interstate 95 corridor.
Notable storms:
Feb. 5-6, 2010, Snowmaggedon, 18 to 32 inches
Jan. 6-8, 1996, Blizzard of 1996, 17 to 25 inches
Feb. 18-19, 1979, Presidents’ Day snowstorm, 16 to 26 inches
A few inches
The vast majority of the region’s snowstorms consist of a glancing blow — just a few inches but enough to wreak havoc. We see it play out every winter, often in the form of an Alberta clipper, which gets its name from the Canadian province where the storm tend s to originate. Clippers are cold enough to deliver snow if they track south of Washington, but they tend to be moisture-starved, so we don’t often see big snow totals from them.
The ice storm
The D.C. region is particularly prone to ice because of its proximity to the mountains, which act as a dam for the cold air drifting in from the north. Subfreezing air pools near the ground so precipitation that might have otherwise fallen as rain becomes supercooled and freezes instantly when it makes contact with the ground.
Notable storms:
Feb. 10-11, 1994, up to 3 inches of ice
Feb. 14, 2007, Valentine’s Day storm, 4 to 8 inches of snow and sleet; up to 3/4 inch of ice
A cold rain
All winter storms have the potential to wind up as a cold rain, given the right track. One type that stands out, though, is the “Appalachian runner.” This storm tracks north along the Appalachian Mountains, well west of Washington, which puts most of the Mid-Atlantic in the warm sector of the storm. Cut off from the cold air, precipitation may begin as snow or a wintry mix but quickly turns to rain.
Notable forecast “busts”
Dec. 26, 2010
Forecast: Up to 12 inches
What fell: Not even an inch
March 6, 2013
Snowquester
Forecast: 5-10 inches
What fell: Not even an inch
The reverse forecast bust
The slightest variation in storm track can lead to another interesting type of bust: one where little or no snow is expected, yet as much as a foot ends up falling.
Notable reverse forecast busts
Jan. 25, 2000
Forecast: Rain
What fell: 9 to 18 inches of snow
March 9, 1999
Forecast: Rain
What fell: 8 to 12 inches of snow
Re: It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
Vnbjnvnb
()
Date: February 05, 2016 11:19PM
Your threads, on the other hand, are entirely predictable.
Re: It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
Fox News
()
Date: February 05, 2016 11:21PM
Vnbjnvnb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your threads, on the other hand, are entirely
> predictable.
How is that?
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your threads, on the other hand, are entirely
> predictable.
How is that?
Re: It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
speller
()
Date: February 07, 2016 02:11PM
Perdict ? Is that how you say it?
Re: It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
causeican
()
Date: February 07, 2016 02:40PM
Fox News Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Vnbjnvnb Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Your threads, on the other hand, are entirely
> > predictable.
>
>
> How is that?
SARCASM: the use of words that mean the opposite of what you really want to say especially in order to insult someone, to show irritation, or to be funny
-------------------------------------------------------
> Vnbjnvnb Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Your threads, on the other hand, are entirely
> > predictable.
>
>
> How is that?
SARCASM: the use of words that mean the opposite of what you really want to say especially in order to insult someone, to show irritation, or to be funny
Re: It can be hard to perdict when it will snow in Fairfax. Here’s why?
Posted by:
Cocktimus Prime
()
Date: February 07, 2016 07:27PM
Fox News usually say "per dick" when he gives hummers behind the H Mart. It's easy to see how he slurs predict.
Damn sausage sucker.
Damn sausage sucker.