A little bit of history:

The place - The Timbers townhouse complex

6032 Timber Hollow Lane

04/21/2000 - purchased by Melodie E. Cooper for $149,000
06/19/2008 - foreclosed on by Suntrust Bank for $108,000
03/24/2009 - purchased by Ibrahim Ahmed for $226,730

2009 assessed value $257,940


Currently offered for sale by Mr. Ahmed for $349,900.

You know, I have to admire this guy. He picks up a foreclosure, slaps some paint on it and then has the balls to price it at almost a hundred grand over assessed and market value.

BTW, if anyone is interested. A townhouse just down the street, 6012 Timber Hollow Lane, sold in March for $263,000. I believe it was a little bit bigger than 6032.

If that area is like where I live in Centreville there aren't any other homes for sale. Given that, he can pretty well set the price however he wants. If you want to live there you'll buy his house, if not, go somewhere else.

Some moron is trying to sell his short sale house for the same price he purchased in 2006. $399,000 for a crappy townhouse in a crappier neghborhood (Barrel Cooper Court in Reston)

Anyone named Ibrahim Ahmed should be deported without hesitation.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 09:54PM by WingNut.

Without a real medical or personal finacnial tragedy, the only way to screw up a loan that small is by retarded spending habits, excess cash outs or plain ignorance.

Or having twenty illegals living there that all suddenly get deported.

There are over 900 houses for sale in the 3 Centerville zip codes; no shortages of houses for sale.

YOU HAVE TO KIDDING ME! The housing industry is terrible right now. More houses are being foreclosed on every day in Timber Hollow.

It will not be until the end of 2009 before the housing industry is ready to turn around. Are there bargains right now? Yes, but better bargains in the Fall and you'll probably save around $20,000-$30,000 (price of a car).


This guy probably bought a place a month or two ago hoping to flip it and now the market is still terrible and he can't pay another months mortgage on the place before the bank forecloses on him.

actually, its been a great market for investors. far better for them than regular buyers or sellers, that's for sure! they have the money and time to put in offers on a bunch of short sales and wait out the banks in hopes of getting a couple to go through. we're trying to buy our first house right now and we've gotten scooped by investors on three places so far. one showed up in the morning, we made an appointment to see it at 5:30, only to be called back at 1:30 to be told it'd already gone to an investor. now, whether these investors are trying to flip them in 30 days i don't know. this guy definitely seems like an idiot, as the market simply doesn't support that price right now. but if he can take the hit for 6 months, i'll bet he gets his asking price or very near.

The days of flipping houses for profit are gone. With stricter banking regulations and tight lenders the house market is going to be very slow in growth. Gone are the days when banks would just throw out dollars for houses at any price. Welcome to America Ahmed, ask yourself a question? How many new house flipping shows are on now?

Actually there is a way to still flip houses for profit. There are a few mortgage banks that would love to get rid of the properties rather than own them at foreclosure prices. If you can identify which mortgage companies those are (Indymac for example) you can get them to discount their note at the foreclosure proceedings by $20,000-$40,000. Then you put about $10,000-$15,000 into the house as upgrades and sell the property at the forclosure price.

You just made $10,000-$25,000. Sometimes you don't even need upgrades and you can pocket the entire amount of the bank discount.

You're welcome.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:06PM by WingNut.

"The last few years was a spectacle with overextended, greedy amatuers who had no forsight about values and appreciation for improvements.It doesn't hurt my feelings that these folks are out of the game."

you forgot to mention that the goverment was pushing for everyone to go buy a house, that our entire culture was telling everyone to buy a house and then sell it for big profits, that many loan officers were taking honest people's applications and altering them for their own greed and profit, that banks were pushing for more loans of any quality, that many appraisers were artificially inflating values, and that it wasn't just greedy, ignorant amateurs randomly getting into the housing market. everything they read or saw said to get into a house and that it would automatically increase in value. even industry professionals, who should have been honest and cautious with these amateurs, were leading them astray. yes, some people who definitely shouldn't have did get into mortgages they couldn't afford and shouldn't have agreed to, but that's only one small part of the overall problem.

House flipping is for fools that watch info commercials. Basically suckers. Half the TV shows about flipping that show huge profits are fake or the numbers are greatly exaggerated.

Buy the land, build the houses and then sell them. That's where the money is.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:06PM by WingNut.

I turn to the Rice brothers for advice on real estate investments.

These stupid-ass flippers helped cause the situation that we're in right now. Anybody with an IQ above 50 can flip a house. Maybe Ibrahim should get an actual job where he doesn't cheat the average joe out of shitloads of cash.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:06PM by WingNut.

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Attachments:

Furfur Wrote:
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> I turn to the Rice brothers for advice on real
> estate investments.
>
>
>


Didn't one of them die? I think it was the short one.

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
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>
>
> Didn't one of them die? I think it was the short
> one.

Yeah, one of them died a couple of years back from complications from a broken leg. Its just when I first saw these commercials I thought how could anybody take them seriously.

They also starred in some short lived tv drama back in 81.

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“It's too bad that stupidity isn't painful." - Anton Lavey

A little bit more information.

The Timbers townhouse complex is in West Springfield, 22152 area code, and located near West Springfield High School (it's just off of Rolling Road).

I'm aware of at least 11 foreclosures there in 2008. Most of the units are pretty much the same, with some slight differences. Sale prices in 2008 went from as high as $432,000 (Regular sale, 03/19/2008 - 6069 Hollow Hill Lane) to as low as $200,000 (Forced sale, 05/12/2008 - 6020 Timber Hollow Lane).

Prices in the last two quarters of 2008 ranged around $250,000 to $275,000. HOA fees are around $70.00 a month, though I've heard that will go up considering that so many units have been in foreclosure and no association fees were been paid on those units for months.

About a month ago during the second week of April, I counted 349 foreclosure notices listed in the Washington Post for all of Fairfax County (Sun - Sat). I do a count every couple of weeks. The average for the first two months of this year was around 225 to 250. According to a friend of mine down at the Courthouse, they have a two month backlog processing foreclosures.

Back in April, there were 88 foreclosures listed for 22152 and at least 8 properties that had been foreclosed, but not listed as of yet. Burke had as many, North Springfield had more and even Centreville had about 22 active foreclosures. The only place I haven't seen any foreclosure activity is Great Falls.

People are pricing in foreclosure prices now. That's why Ahmed is going to get screwed. People aren't acting stupid like they did back in 2003-2007. They are checking things out.

The thing that I find funny as hell is how real estate agents talk about how the supply picture is changing and how prices "should stabilize and start to increase with all these new home buyers coming into the market." Ya right. Prices on all Real Estate in Fairfax is going to continue to decline until these foreclosures work through the system. And that isn't happening anytime soon. All you have to do is count the number of foreclosure notices listed in the Washington Post.

WingNut Wrote:
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>>
> I actually kind of regret NOT abusing the no docs
> and stated income loans, but like credit cards, I
> think the whole housing bubble was a great test
> to find out who has the self control not to hang
> themselves when given access to free rope.

Unfortunately, those of us who exercised self control are now bailing out those who did not.

Like you, I saw the warning signs of an out of control housing market in the early 2000s and took it slow, knowing WHEN it crashed it would hit the ground with a huge thud. I bought only one investment property; fixed it up with a grant, and then turned it for a decent profit.

If the news accounts are to be believed, April showed the highest number of foreclosures in any month to date, which means banks will most likely tighten up lending even more.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/16/2009 06:13AM by Junes.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:04PM by WingNut.

If you have have good credit, this IS the time to buy, while the market is vulnerable. However, investors caution that housing values continue to decline and to pay full list, or even assessed value, is like paying sticker price on a car.

Nearly everyone I know who has bought a home in the past 3 months, made offers between 20% - 30% below assessed value and their offers were accepted.

Any realtor who tries to sell a home at assessed value is either new to the business or playing head games with clients (both sellers and buyers). Most still have strong ties with the banks and able to push through a mortgage easily.

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WingNut Wrote:
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> Agents are becoming more worthless and obsolete,
> they displayed that dramatically in the last 3-5
> years. It's relatively easy to check comp
> sales,assesments and trends online, even for a
> novice, first time buyer.

I'll agree that many realtors don't really seem to know shit about the market they work in. I can't tell you how many times I have worked with realtors who tried to get me to over-price (surprisingly, not under-price) a property for sale. I know they want a higher commission, but I don't want a stale listing.

Two websites are great for this. The first is redfin.com, which basically does everything a realtor does for a home buyer, but better, and the other is the washington post interactive map of recent sales, which provides many of the comps.

Some things I can't stand about realtors:

1. The pictures of yourself everywhere. Seriously, I don't care what you look like. If I want a realtor I want one that knows the area and is honest. You all look the same anyway.

2. The lazy photos. So you have that professional glamor shot, but you can't get out of your car to at least get your side-view mirror out of the picture? This is a multi-hundred-thousand dollar purchase, an interior shot would be nice too.

3. The misleading photos. I love that wide-angle lens, it makes the efficiency condo with a single basement window look so wide and bright.

4. The sliminess of the entire realtor-assisted purchase process. You've got the "realtor creep" where they try to creep up your purchasing price by deliberately showing you cruddy properties in your price range, then nice ones just above it. The "realtor's recommend inspection guy who only complains about a noisy toilet flusher and downplays the giant basement-wall crack". That one happened to me.

5. The games they play with keeping MLS data away from the public to protect their racket. This is one reason I love redfin so much, almost all the information you need to be an informed buyer is all right in the open. Before Redfin and similar sites, realtors would hide the address of the property from their online listings so you HAD to work with a realtor. Those days are over!

6. The fact that almost every realtor I've worked with has an unwarranted sense of self-importance, combined with being flaky and clueless as hell. They're impossible to get callbacks on, are late, and many just do it "on the side" and think they can make thousands by just putting signs everywhere.

7. The sneaky fees. I tried to purchase a house once where the broker put a $350 "doc fee" on top of the process. A doc fee for what? I pay all the fees at closing to the title people and mortgage company and other service providers. You generated a purchase contract. That's what you get your commission for, that and driving me around sometimes. I refused to pay it so my agent was forced to pay it. What an asshole broker.

8. Terrible websites that are nearly impossible to navigate and try to force you to enter some "contact information" so you can get "marketed to" to see some listings. Thank you again, Redfin.

Honestly, now that I think about it, the entire real estate industry would be well served by every shady half-assed hanger-on being shaken out by this recent crunch. Combine that with the Internet and companies like Redfin making all the information public, things are getting much better indeed.

The next step is to open up all that comp data to the public the rest of the way. That's about the last bit of valuable information the industry is clutching in their greedy little fists, and getting it out in the open would serve the greater good.

Now, for all those realtors out there who I offended -- if you can help clueless/new people understand our neighborhoods, traffic patterns, and price points in a fair and honest way, then that's great. That's a valuable and needed service where you earn your commission. Otherwise, you are useless and soon to be obsolete.



WingNut Wrote:
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> Agents are becoming more worthless and obsolete,
> they displayed that dramatically in the last 3-5
> years. It's relatively easy to check comp
> sales,assesments and trends online, even for a
> novice, first time buyer.

Lenders are getting slick. I was perusing the MLS one morning and saw a house in a neighborhood I know well. It was bank owned and listed for 237K (last sale 601K during the boom)!! I immediately called and was prepared to head for the bank (I always pay all cash for houses I buy) and was told they already had an offer....I bid higher. Anyway, that sucker low price generated a sort of bidding war not seen since the boom.

The house went for almost $400K...to somebody else...if I can't steal 'em, I don't buy 'em.

Anyway, I thought it was ingenius.

WingNut Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agents are becoming more worthless and obsolete,
> they displayed that dramatically in the last 3-5
> years. It's relatively easy to check comp
> sales,assesments and trends online, even for a
> novice, first time buyer.

In this case with the agents becoming obsolete and worthless, I am curioous what is your outlook for FSBOs (for sale by owners)?

The "Leveling" we're seeing in the local market is happening in quite a few cities across the US. Some are even seeing a bit of a bounce this spring. That said, it doesn't look like a bottom for a couple of reasons.

First of all, non-payment and defaults are still going up, and are way up over last year. Foreclosures on the other hand, have leveled off. Due to the national foreclosure moratorium from Nov 08 - Mar 09, major banks took a short break from reposessing homes. This will not last forever, and eventually most of the people that aren't paying the mortgage will have to move and their home will be re-sold.

Additionally, the "first time buyer tax credit" is going to expire in November 2009. Unless it gets renewed, there will be significantly fewer qualified buyers come year end.

If you're thinking about selling, now may be the best time to do so. Buyers are probably better off waiting.

WingNut wrote:

>I was hoping for a slow fade, but it became pretty clear a thud was coming about mid 05 early 06. I had friends and neighbors I warned emphatically but they stuck >with their game plans.It was only when I really started talking to other owners about selling that it became so clear what a fiasco it was going to be.

Excellent point. I really didn't notice the debacle coming until early 07. I sold my house in Nashville in early of 06, but didn't move to Fairfax until March of 07. When I started looking to buy, I began researching and that's when I noticed all the foreclosures. I identified ten foreclosures and two forced sales while looking at partial data from four zip codes (Burke, West Springfield, North Springfield and Annandale). I thought that was damn odd. So I decided to rent instead of buying and kept the money I made on my house in Nashville in CDs.

The funny thing about that time period was that no one talked about the deteriorating Real Estate market. In fact, the stock market was still going up while foreclosures were popping up all over the place. I didn't read one damn story about it in the business journals or the newspapers. That's when I started keeping track of Real Estate. The stock market kept on going up while foreclosures kept on increasing. This is when I realized the situation was going to get really bad and I sold all my stocks and moved them into crappy CDs as well.

I told my friends to do the same thing, but they wouldn't listen to me. "Real Estate prices NEVER decline. They are going up to the moon," they chortled. That's when I knew we were going to have a fucking crash. That's what people said in the Crash of '29. That's what they said during the Tech bubble as well. I fucking hate bubbles.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:02PM by WingNut.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2015 10:02PM by WingNut.