You might want to pick up a VA Mega Millions ticket for a buck. The jackpot is now $155 million, the cash pay out is $102 million. Drawing is tomorrow night.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/2009 12:25PM by Lurker..

or you could just feed your dollar to an angry parrot. Your likelihood of winning is about the same.

That's my retirement plan.

Lotteries are a tax on people with deficient math skills.

PresaCanario Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lotteries are a tax on people with deficient math
> skills.

+1


"the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish."

It's only a dollar for a chance at $155 million.

Also, not being a janitor, school teacher or factory worker my chances are even slimmer.

it makes sense to buy one ticket; you increase your chances of winning infinitely. any more than one ticket is a waste, you don't increase your probability enough to warrant an extra buck or two...

We need an FFXU lottery, Shirley Jackson style. I nominate Vince to have the first stone cast at him.

Really? Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Also, not being a janitor, school teacher or
> factory worker my chances are even slimmer.


This always interests me along with the fact that the winners are always from East Bumfuck or Eastern Lower Slumtown. Is there a direct correlation between the occupation and location of winners and the people who buy tickets?

FWIW, I was taking the train back from Newark last night and the line at each of the 3 retailers was consistently 20-30 deep during the hour that I was there and the demographics seemed pretty mixed.

Emeritus Q. Beaker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> it makes sense to buy one ticket; you increase
> your chances of winning infinitely. any more than
> one ticket is a waste, you don't increase your
> probability enough to warrant an extra buck or
> two...

Yup, buying 50 tickets instead of just one is not really increasing your odds of winning over buying just one. People just don't understand the math.

Lurker. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Emeritus Q. Beaker Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > it makes sense to buy one ticket; you increase
> > your chances of winning infinitely. any more
> than
> > one ticket is a waste, you don't increase your
> > probability enough to warrant an extra buck or
> > two...
>
> Yup, buying 50 tickets instead of just one is not
> really increasing your odds of winning over buying
> just one. People just don't understand the math.

This reasoning has nothing to do with math. Strictly from a mathematical point of view, 2 tickets does double your odds of winning, but it's still quite the long shot. If the odds are 1 in 80,000,000 with 1 ticket, then the odds are 1 in 40,000,000 with 2 tickets.

Actual odds of winning with 1 ticket is 1 in 175,711,536

SBS Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This reasoning has nothing to do with math.
> Strictly from a mathematical point of view, 2
> tickets does double your odds of winning, but it's
> still quite the long shot. If the odds are 1 in
> 80,000,000 with 1 ticket, then the odds are 1 in
> 40,000,000 with 2 tickets.

No, that's what most people would think.

Buying one more ticket does not change odds by half.

If you have 1 ticket out of 80,000,000 then your odds are 1 out of 80,000,000.
If you have 2 tickets out of 80,000,000 then your odds are 2 out of 80,000,000.

But number of tickets sold does not determine a winner. A correct pick determines a winner.

In the mega millions lottery you are actually picking a number 1 to 500,000,000,000 So buying a second ticket would be odd of 2 out of 500,000,000,000



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/24/2009 02:23PM by Lurker..

Lurker. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> No, that's what most people would think.
> Buying one more ticket does not change odds by
> half.

Your're right, it doubles them.

>
> If you have 1 ticket out of 80,000,000 then your
> odds are 1 out of 80,000,000.
> If you have 2 tickets out of 80,000,000 then your
> odds are 2 out of 80,000,000.

It's not out of 80,000,000 tickets sold. That number was used as a theoretical number. How about this, with 1 ticket, your EXACT odds of winning are 1 in 175,711,536. With 2 tickets, your odds are 2 in 175,711,536, which is the same as 1 in 87,855,768, assuming the numbers on the 2nd ticket are not identical to the numbers on the 1st.

2 out of 80,000,000 is the SAME as 1 out of 40,000,000

>
> But number of tickets sold does not determine a
> winner. A correct pick determines a winner.

No shit sherlock. The odds I posted are the odds of picking the correct numbers, and has nothing to do with number of tickets sold.

>
> In the mega millions lottery you are actually
> picking a number 1 to 500,000,000,000 So buying a
> second ticket would be odd of 2 out of
> 500,000,000,000

Way to pull numbers out of your ass. Look 2 posts up. Those are the EXACT odds of picking the winning numbers.

All that being said, you cant win if you dont play.

Now carry on.

______________________________________________
I have had to change the addresses to my retaliatory blogs over half a dozen times.

.
Attachments:

I think that graph just shows the probability of zero, 1 or 2+ winners given the number of tickets in play.

But you guys can argue about fractions if you want..

Round two

Lurker, what are you doing up at 2:00 am? Normal people don't inhabit this board at these hours. :)

Lady Gaga says you are not normal...Alias!

Normal is boring, Fairfax is boring...Fairfax is full of people who want to appear normal...Ha!

Yes Spunky, we should all look to you as an example of what is normal.

"Lady Gaga says you are not normal...Alias!"
______________
Who would have thought she’d have been so perceptive? Ha!

(stop stealing my copyrighted material)

ElliotNmorning Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes Spunky, we should all look to you as an
> example of what is normal.


Oh, you embarrass me with such attention, I truly don't deserve all of this.

Yes, I was normal once then God smacked me up side the head with reality. Now call me Jaded, because normal couldn't contain me and besides it was so boring.

Maybe it's time to wear normal again? There's nothing normal about this life which doesn't yield normal anymore, just those who appear to be. Normal really doesn't exists and never has. But people fear saver believing that it does, sort of like those masses of people who did nothing to help the Jews or Indians, I am sure they all thought they were NORMAL.

I think I'll use my last dollar to buy a Normal lottery ticket tomorrow. I am feelin more normal now...thanks.

Take a good look at yourselves to find normal too, and fight it!

Edited the amount of the jackpot to $220 for May 1st drawing.

]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/27/2012 03:13PM by Alias.

Alias Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The problem with winning so much money is that
> your life would be ruined. Your name would be
> published so solicitors, thieves, relatives and
> friends you didn't know you had would be knocking
> your door down. It would be a nightmare. You'd
> probably have to move, maybe have to change your
> name and even then, the vultures would find you.

True, but I still wouldn't mind the cash pay out of $110 million.

'



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/27/2012 04:57PM by Alias.

if i got $110 million, i would put it in CDs. every year you would get a few million in interest. :)


"the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish."

$110M less 45% taxes (give or take) leaves you around $60M. At 4% annual return you are getting $2.4M - I think that I could live OK on that and would find a way to deal with the people looking for a handout.

Yeah, I'm willing to chance it. You know, if it turned out that having all that money truly sucked, you could always give it all away to charity and go back to being a working slob.

Gravis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> if i got $110 million, i would put it in CDs.
> every year you would get a few million in
> interest. :)


I might even endow a charity for free psychotropic meds for "some" of the FFXU posters on here. Simple qualification form too:

1) Is your name spunky? (if so, sign and return. Please wait 4-6 weeks for delivery. Free shipping and handling too!)

2) If not, is your name vince? (see # 1 above)

______________________________________________
I have had to change the addresses to my retaliatory blogs over half a dozen times.

Gravis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> if i got $110 million, i would put it in CDs.
> every year you would get a few million in
> interest. :)

LOL, You would be better off taking the $220 million instead of cash pay out and getting an annual check for 26 years. You would get more.

LOL Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Gravis Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > if i got $110 million, i would put it in CDs.
> > every year you would get a few million in
> > interest. :)
>
> LOL, You would be better off taking the $220
> million instead of cash pay out and getting an
> annual check for 26 years. You would get more.

hey retard, did you notice i wrote $110M instead of $220M? do you know why? do you know what a CD is? do you know what interest is?

great!

now...

"the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish."

At today's pathetic 2% CD rates even for long term CDs you wouldn't break even with $220M (you'd need 2.67% average return per year compounding monthly on $110M to hit $220M in 26 years), but rates will undoubtedly go up between now and 2035 and I'd expect an average CD rate of something more like 4% across that long a time period.

But aside from the nerdy calculations Gravis is right, it is much better to take the up-front amount... even in extremely conservative investments like CDs you will make out better. Unless your bank fails of course and the FDIC hands you $100K or $250k (depending on if it fails this year or after this year) to replace your $110M.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/SaveMoney/8lotteryWinnersWhoLostTheirMillions.aspx?page=all

That article brings up a good point. If you win the lottery, it's best just to tear up the ticket and not turn it in. Or else you may get $100M and blow $100M on fun stuff.

Two tickets definitely does not double your odds. If your odds of winning with one ticket are 1 in 175,000,000, then your odds of winning with two tickets are:

[(1/175mm) + (1/(175mm-1))]/2 where the minus 1 part represents the one less possible winning combination already included in the left half of the equation. So with two tickets its roughly 1 in 174,999,999.999999995.

For all the ladies out there, that means the odds with each additional ticket after the first ticket doesn't really do much at all to improve your odds.

If you don't need that first dollar to feed your kids or pay your rent, then the opportunity cost of getting one, and only one, ticket is worth even the terrible odds - and provides a glimmer of hope if ever so fleeting.

pgens Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That article brings up a good point. If you win
> the lottery, it's best just to tear up the ticket
> and not turn it in. Or else you may get $100M and
> blow $100M on fun stuff.

If I won the lottery, the first thing I would do is fuck a high-class hooker on a money-covered bed. Then, I would handle it one of two ways:

1. Not tell a single person, ever.
2. Fake my own death and start a new life far away from anyone that might know me.

I've read a couple of those "won it and lost it" articles, and the theme is consistent throughout; a person wins, suddenly finds himself surrounded with new friends and family, gives away all of his money, gets scammed, misplaces suitcases full of cash, etc.

Fuck that. I'll burn it before I let anybody get their greedy hands on it.

--------------------------------------------------------------
13 4826 0948 82695 25847. Yes.

Bounce House Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Two tickets definitely does not double your odds.
> If your odds of winning with one ticket are 1 in
> 175,000,000, then your odds of winning with two
> tickets are:
>
> [(1/175mm) + (1/(175mm-1))]/2 where the minus 1
> part represents the one less possible winning
> combination already included in the left half of
> the equation. So with two tickets its roughly 1
> in 174,999,999.999999995.
>
> For all the ladies out there, that means the odds
> with each additional ticket after the first ticket
> doesn't really do much at all to improve your
> odds.
>
> If you don't need that first dollar to feed your
> kids or pay your rent, then the opportunity cost
> of getting one, and only one, ticket is worth even
> the terrible odds - and provides a glimmer of hope
> if ever so fleeting.

Here we go again. Your numbers are completely wrong. Let's use your logic with some small numbers. You are asked to pick a winning number from a pool of 5 numbers.

By your logic:
With 1 pick, your odds of winning are 1 in 5 or 1/5 or 20%.
With 2 picks, your odds are [(1/5 + 1/(5-1)]/2 = [1/5 + 1/4]/2 = 9/40 = 22.5%.
Hopefully it is obvious that your chances of winning are in fact 40%.

The odds of wining the lotto w/1 ticket is approx. 1 in 175,000,000 because there are that many distinct combinations of numbers, and your ticket has to be one of them. If you have 2 tickets, the percentage of the total count of distinct possibilities is doubled, and your odds of winning are doubled.


Or try this theoretical scenario.

Each possible number combination is purchased exactly once by 87,500,000 people who each bought 2 of those tickets. Since each possible combination was sold, the probability that someone wins the lotto is 100%. The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes has to be 1, or 100%. Each person's odds are the same, so a single user's odds are 1 in 87,500,000, which is the same as 2 in 175,000,000, which is double the odds of 1 in 175,000,000, which is the odds of winning with 1 ticket.

When I win, I promise not to give any $$$ to any of you tards. That should keep things simple.

______________________________________________
I have had to change the addresses to my retaliatory blogs over half a dozen times.

If I ever won, I would pay a strung out crack addict $2k to fuck Memphisto's mom and give a nice facial.

Tomas Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If I ever won, I would pay a strung out crack
> addict $2k to fuck Memphisto's mom and give a nice
> facial.


How about just getting Mephisto some ass for once?

He is a fag who trolls the net to watch kiddie porn. That is the closest he'd get to real ass.

'



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/27/2012 04:51PM by Alias.

A well at least somebody close got some of the booty

RICHMOND, Va. - A Spotsylvania County man went from being unemployed to a millionaire thanks to six lucky numbers. Sources say Joe Dennette is the winner of a $75.6 million Mega Millions prize.

Dennette was one of three ticket holders to split a $227 million Mega Millions jackpot from the May 1 drawing of the multi-state game. The other winning tickets were sold in California and Ohio.

Lottery officials said Tuesday that rather than take the full jackpot amount over 26 years, Dennette opted to take $47.8 million in cash.

Dennette accepted his check at Richmond International Raceway, where he attended a NASCAR (web | news) race the same day he realized he had won.

"Looked at the Mega ball, saw I got that number," said Dennette. " looked at the rest of them, changed my glasses, put a new pair on. They're right!"

Laid off from his construction job in January, the unemployed Dennette is now splitting a $227 million dollar jackpot. "Things were rough," he said. "The economy's hard. Now I can say thanks to [the] Virginia lottery I'm set."

Dennette says he played the lottery regularly at the Joyful Convenience Market near Thornburg. It was the third-largest prize in Virginia Lottery history.

Store manager Bruce Park sold the winning ticket. Said Park, "A lot of people have been coming asking who's the winner? Who's the winner? And what's your cut? What's your cut?"

Sources say their cut is $50,000 and they've now become a bit of a lotto hot spot, as a steady flow of people hope the same computer that picked Dennette's winning numbers will do it again.

"Hoping, hoping -- hopefully I have the winning numbers," said Jennifer Reynolds, a Spotsylvania resident.

"I've got my lottery ticket for tonight right here," said Dennette. "If i can win anybody can win."

Sources say after taxes, Dennette will walk away with $33.9 million. Tuesday night's Mega Millions prize is $28 million.

Lurker.. Wrote:

>Sources say Joe Dennette is the
> winner of a $75.6 million Mega Millions prize.

What a freaking moron!!! Doesn't he know that he's got better odds of getting struck by lightning while riding a unicorn than....oh...well, nevermind.

MrMephisto Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. Not tell a single person, ever.
> 2. Fake my own death and start a new life far
> away from anyone that might know me.

In Virginia if you win a lottery prize large enough that you have to pick it up at one of the VA Lottery offices, they are required to disclose your name to the media.

Don't fake your death. It's easy. Set up the appropriate investment accounts, put all of your belongings in storage, get a new cell phone number, collect the prize money, go on vacation for two months, and then buy a house on the other side of the country.

Me, I'd throw some cash to my parents and my brother, but there'd be no "I'll buy everything you ever wanted" shit.

trogdor! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lurker.. Wrote:
>
> >Sources say Joe Dennette is the
> > winner of a $75.6 million Mega Millions prize.
>
> What a freaking moron!!! Doesn't he know that he's
> got better odds of getting struck by lightning
> while riding a unicorn than....oh...well,
> nevermind.

You're a little late to the party on that one.

You'd have a much better chance of going to Atlantic City, and being dealt a Royal Flush ...100 HANDS IN A ROW at the 5-card poker table.


Maybe if you spend $100 in lottery tickets, it will bring the odds down to where it would be like being dealt a Royal Flush like 20 times in a row.

Still an impossible likelihood of getting a Royal Flush even 2 hands in a row.


Anyone ever seen a R.F. in Texas, Omaha, or 7-card even once in their life? Did you shit your pants?

ur vag smells like hot trash on humid day Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You'd have a much better chance of going to
> Atlantic City, and being dealt a Royal Flush
> ...100 HANDS IN A ROW at the 5-card poker table.
>

Alantic City pays $220 million for a royal flush?

ur vag smells like hot trash on humid day Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You'd have a much better chance of going to
> Atlantic City, and being dealt a Royal Flush
> ...100 HANDS IN A ROW at the 5-card poker table.
>
> Maybe if you spend $100 in lottery tickets, it
> will bring the odds down to where it would be like
> being dealt a Royal Flush like 20 times in a row.
>
> Still an impossible likelihood of getting a Royal
> Flush even 2 hands in a row.
>
>
Actually, your odds of winning the lotto are better than the odds of being dealt a royal flush twice in a row.