Bought a sideboard off C/L from a couple in Fairfax (across from INOVA hospital, I don't know the neighborhood.) Passed a house for sale... looked about 3,000 square feet from the outside. I guessed $650K. Looked it up: $990K.

Dayum.

asking and getting can be 2 different numbers.

I just had my place appraised this morning. I should see the results about mid-week. The results might tell me if I should sell, or hang on a bit.

There is the potential for a 2nd housing bubble. I hope this wouldn't be the case, but there's always that potential.

Great story, thanks for sharing!

dontcare11111 Wrote:
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> Great story, thanks for sharing!


I care. A house is often one of the largest investments for a family. Equity is what many count on for their future retirement. However, it should be noted that there are risks involved.

If the metro area were not such a hot job market with low unemployment numbers, house prices would be lower due to less demand. As long as we have great employment to attract others into the metro area, houses will continue to do well with price increases.

Easy money. Cash buyers. Supply of homes artificially restricted. Situation won't last forever. Now in its 3rd yr. Prices are and have been out of synch with incomes for awhile.

Your monthly costs are are still about the same as living in PG with there outrageous RE taxes.

Louis Theroux Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your monthly costs are are still about the same as
> living in PG with there outrageous RE taxes.


Are the premiums for owner's insurance higher in PG county too? It seems like if there's a higher crime rate or higher burlary rate for certain zip codes the premiums could be adjust accordingly.

I used to have a investment property in PG and yes the insurance costs are much higher. It's not quite as bad as auto insurance which goes way up once you cross da bridge into da hood.

Joe Citizen Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> dontcare11111 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Great story, thanks for sharing!
>
>
> I care. A house is often one of the largest
> investments for a family. Equity is what many
> count on for their future retirement. However, it
> should be noted that there are risks involved.
>
>
You know what they say....if your house is your largest investment.... your in trouble...

Signed 1%

Mr. Brevity Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Easy money. Cash buyers. Supply of homes
> artificially restricted. Situation won't last
> forever. Now in its 3rd yr. Prices are and have
> been out of synch with incomes for awhile.

You forgot Obama hasn't stopped the printing presses down at the Mint. If the govt actually slashed the budget in half, so that we aren't borrowing, the housing values in the DC area would plummet.

Donald Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> You know what they say....if your house is your
> largest investment.... your in trouble...
>
> Signed 1%


You know what else they say? If you can't determine the difference on when to say "your" and "you're", then you're an idiot and no one gives a shit about what you have to say.

JustanFYI Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Donald Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > You know what they say....if your house is your
> > largest investment.... your in trouble...
> >
> > Signed 1%
>
>
> You know what else they say? If you can't
> determine the difference on when to say "your" and
> "you're", then you're an idiot and no one gives a
> shit about what you have to say.


That's fucking funny!

when they built route 66

companies were caught on contract fraud

one of which was a house that sold way above normal price as a form of payment for overbilling the taxpayer

--------------------
good news is it has to be reported at the zoning dept to be legally transferred money. otherwise its just a payoff.


---------------
those were in the days when if a crime was seen it was reported. when if a crime was complained of that there was a trial.

today they just accuse the victim, say nothing if asked, stalk who filed the complaint

home sales are also popular as ways to secure jobs in the area, i hear

now me. i'm fing tired of foreigners and my own buring me and trying to get me fing (*)(*.

I bought (still own) a new house in 1986 3.5 miles southwest of Fair Oaks mall for $190,000. 2700 SQ Ft. finished - additional 1300 SQ Ft unfinished in basement. 1/2 Acre lot. City water/sewer - no well/septic B.S.

WTF happened?

Good old days Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I bought (still own) a new house in 1986 3.5 miles
> southwest of Fair Oaks mall for $190,000. 2700 SQ
> Ft. finished - additional 1300 SQ Ft unfinished in
> basement. 1/2 Acre lot. City water/sewer - no
> well/septic B.S.
>
> WTF happened?


Mostly inflation happened.

$190K in 1986 = $404K current dollars.

You have to factor in location and what types of shopping centers or public transit is close by to determine the price of a house..

Its a bit more than shopping and transit. School is a MAJOR factor for a lot of home buyers. Thats why you see some major price inflation in certain parts of Fairfax near choice schools.

The other driver these days is whether your home is in a neighborhood that is a candidate neighborhood for "tear downs". A friend of mine who is on the town planning commission in Vienna sent me a powerpoint which shows a time lapse presentation of the new building permits and the effect on neighboring houses (non-teardown type houses).

The valuation increase was eye-popping. 20% to 40% just for being nestled between two rebuilds.

Its all about LOCATION around here, there's no other logic involved.

How else do you explain why people are willing to pay $400-600K for bland, poorly built, poorly insulated houses from the 1960's that originally sold for $15K?

Yes schools close by do enhance the home value or price.

The Dark Passenger Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You have to factor in location and what types of
> shopping centers or public transit is close by to
> determine the price of a house..


Transit matters, but not as much for a large part of the demographic. If you think transit that important, check out the property values near Huntington metro. They're shit.

All about location Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Its all about LOCATION around here, there's no
> other logic involved.
>
> How else do you explain why people are willing to
> pay $400-600K for bland, poorly built, poorly
> insulated houses from the 1960's that originally
> sold for $15K?


Perhaps time plays in as well?

For example, you could buy a Coke for a nickel back then.

Now, you're paying around $1.00...regardless of location.

pooponautz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Dark Passenger Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > You have to factor in location and what types
> of
> > shopping centers or public transit is close by
> to
> > determine the price of a house..
>
>
> Transit matters, but not as much for a large part
> of the demographic. If you think transit that
> important, check out the property values near
> Huntington metro. They're shit.


This is also true. Good point!

also time goes by Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All about location Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Its all about LOCATION around here, there's no
> > other logic involved.
> >
> > How else do you explain why people are willing
> to
> > pay $400-600K for bland, poorly built, poorly
> > insulated houses from the 1960's that
> originally
> > sold for $15K?
>
>
> Perhaps time plays in as well?
>
> For example, you could buy a Coke for a nickel
> back then.
>
> Now, you're paying around $1.00...regardless of
> location.


That's part of it but not all.

$15K in 1960 is = ~$118K in today's dollars.

As above ~$200K mid-80s = ~$400K now.

It's a big chunk of the apparent increase in value and one which most people don't take into account but real estate appreciation around here was ridiculous for about a 20-year period.

Even then though most people holding property longer term haven't done nearly as well as they think that they have just looking at the potential sales price. After deducting inflation, interest, maintenance, repairs, and improvements, taxes, etc., the true net comes way, way down.

I keep an eye on the RE around me. I bought a townhouse 3.5 years ago at the bottom of the market. Picked up a townhouse for 2/3rd's the price that the original owner paid during the boom. Smaller townhouse models next to and around me were selling for $50K more than I paid for mine which is ~500 -700 sq. ft bigger. My apprasial 2 years ago when I refi'ed was $50K more than I paid which got me out of an FHA mortgage and into a conventional because I then had over 20% equity. 2 models like mine are up for sale and sitting at ~$100K more than I bought, but they are not moving at all. Once the interest rates started going up, things cooled off dramatically for the townhouse sales in my neighborhood. So either they are too expenseive or they are banged up inside and not moving. Songle family houses in the development are moving once again and like the towns used to be, if they are in good shape and not all beat up, they get a contract pretty quick.

Constance Dollers Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good old days Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I bought (still own) a new house in 1986 3.5
> miles
> > southwest of Fair Oaks mall for $190,000. 2700
> SQ
> > Ft. finished - additional 1300 SQ Ft unfinished
> in
> > basement. 1/2 Acre lot. City water/sewer - no
> > well/septic B.S.
> >
> > WTF happened?
>
>
> Mostly inflation happened.
>
> $190K in 1986 = $404K current dollars.

Zillow puts the value at $654K - that's way above inflation.

Good Old days Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Constance Dollers Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Good old days Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I bought (still own) a new house in 1986 3.5
> > miles
> > > southwest of Fair Oaks mall for $190,000.
> 2700
> > SQ
> > > Ft. finished - additional 1300 SQ Ft
> unfinished
> > in
> > > basement. 1/2 Acre lot. City water/sewer -
> no
> > > well/septic B.S.
> > >
> > > WTF happened?
> >
> >
> > Mostly inflation happened.
> >
> > $190K in 1986 = $404K current dollars.
>
> Zillow puts the value at $654K - that's way above
> inflation.


Kinda. How much "way" represents depends on how you look at it.

$654K = $308K in 1986 dollars. So you've made roughly the equivalent of ~$118K in constant-year dollars ($308K - $190K cost). That's before counting all of the interest paid (most in earlier years so you'd need to adjust for time value of the payment stream as it happened), plus the same for taxes, insurance, maintenance, and all of the rest (and not counting opportunity cost for that same money elsewhere). At typical rates and costs, you're probably more at around $50K-ish in real constant-dollar net gains.

And that's not intending to be ragging on you btw, it's just the reality of the money. Mine's not a whole lot different.

Still beats renting.

The taxes and interest are tax deductible, so that's nice. If you bought in the 90s and have a decent paying job, your home is probably paid off by now(assuming you live within your means).

I paid 260k in 1997 and its worth around 650k~ today.

Louis Theroux Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still beats renting.
>
> The taxes and interest are tax deductible, so
> that's nice. If you bought in the 90s and have a
> decent paying job, your home is probably paid off
> by now(assuming you live within your means).
>
> I paid 260k in 1997 and its worth around 650k~
> today.


Yeah it does. Assuming that house prices are increasing anyway and you don't have better opportunity elsewhere for the same money. May be some people around here who bought at the top who may be questioning that.

And the above isn't exactly right. It's actually a little better since you're not dropping the full cost of the house at the time bought in most cases and you're paying back older dollars with newer inflated dollars over the years. But that kind of gets washed out on the interest side so it works as a ball-park number. You'd have to know your interest rate, what expenses/improvements happened when, etc. to really do it right. Bottom line, on a real basis it's not near the $650K - $200K or whatever as most people tend to look at it.

I bought a brand new 5500 SF house for 900k in 2012, now it is worth 1.1 million.

YOLO