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Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
Patrick Brennan
()
Date: January 26, 2015 07:56PM
Those who listen to President Obama’s speeches hear him boast that 2014 has seen impressive improvements in the labor market — the best year in job creation since 1999, he points out, and he’s right.
But there’s no obvious explanation for why 2014 has been the best year of a weak jobs recovery. The president has naturally credited his policies (without any justification).
A new NBER working paper from three economists — Marcus Hagedorn, Kurt Mitman, and Iourii Manovskii — concludes that the ending of federally extended unemployment benefits across the country at the end of 2013 explains much of the labor-market boom in 2014.
About 60 percent of the job creation in 2014, 1.8 million jobs, they find, can be attributed to the end of the extended-benefits program. That’s a huge amount, and suggests that long-term unemployment benefits, while there’s a good charitable case for them, could have played a big role in the ongoing lassitude of our labor market.
An earlier study showed that extended benefits raised the unemployment rate during the Great Recession by three percentage points.
But there’s no obvious explanation for why 2014 has been the best year of a weak jobs recovery. The president has naturally credited his policies (without any justification).
A new NBER working paper from three economists — Marcus Hagedorn, Kurt Mitman, and Iourii Manovskii — concludes that the ending of federally extended unemployment benefits across the country at the end of 2013 explains much of the labor-market boom in 2014.
About 60 percent of the job creation in 2014, 1.8 million jobs, they find, can be attributed to the end of the extended-benefits program. That’s a huge amount, and suggests that long-term unemployment benefits, while there’s a good charitable case for them, could have played a big role in the ongoing lassitude of our labor market.
An earlier study showed that extended benefits raised the unemployment rate during the Great Recession by three percentage points.
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
Amazing But True
()
Date: January 26, 2015 07:57PM
Take away the free money and people go get jobs. Imagine that.
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
bias30334
()
Date: January 26, 2015 08:07PM
Why don't you cite the source? This from the right wing nut job rag WashingtonExaminer
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
VLM
()
Date: January 26, 2015 08:18PM
oh I know. let's go back to how all the banks granted shitty loans and we all paid for it for 7 years. how its taken 7 years for new owners that held on to get their asses above water. yeah let's go back to being dumb working class and doing all the paying to get it all stolen away overnight. yeah let's vote for mitt. you dum fuck. you are who they prey on. you are who holds us back.
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
VLM
()
Date: January 26, 2015 08:21PM
obama obama obama. he's probably why you have a job and a place to live. go ahead. vote for mitt. live your fucking shallow life. nobody will give a shit when you're sick and die. nobody.
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
Butthurt wellfare fag
()
Date: January 26, 2015 08:24PM
Clearly you've got your head up your arse, pal, because Obama has done everything possible to ensure that banks can continue those practices. Look at the man's cabinet and their history in the private sector -- low and behold, many made their nut off banking. Moreover the Obama Administration has spent more time prosecuting journalists than they have crooked bankers that destroyed our economy. Also Mitt ran on regulating banks, twat: "if we have in place modern regulation and regulators who are keeping their eye on the ball, there’s no reason to think we will go into another crisis of the kind we just endured as a result of the mortgage meltdown." -- Romney, Spring 2012
Re: 2014’s Employment Boom Almost Entirely Due to the Expiration of Unemployment Benefits Obama Wanted to Renew
Posted by:
GyhVy
()
Date: January 26, 2015 08:49PM
bias30334 Wrote:
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> Why don't you cite the source? This from the
> right wing nut job rag WashingtonExaminer
No. It's a National Bureau of Economic Research paper:
The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?
Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
NBER Working Paper No. 20884
Issued in January 2015
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20884
The new article is just reporting on it and there are similar reports published elsewhere including on Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com site:
Title: “The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?”
Authors: Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
What they found: The elimination of emergency unemployment benefits at the end of 2013 played a major role in spurring the subsequent acceleration in job growth in 2014.
Why it matters: When the recession struck in 2008, Congress voted to extend unemployment benefits beyond the standard 27 weeks offered by most states. The program was gradually pared back during the recovery, and at the end of 2013, Congress allowed it to expire entirely. Many conservative economists said the program was doing more harm than good by providing the long-term jobless an incentive not to look as hard for work. Liberal economists were more skeptical, as was I; in an article last spring, I found little evidence that the end of emergency benefits was pushing the jobless back to work. But in this paper, the authors argue that conservatives were right and that the cutoff of benefits helps explain the surge in hiring in 2014. They use county-level data to show that places where the reduction in benefits was greatest also experienced the greatest job gains. They estimate that the policy change led to the creation of 1.8 million jobs in 2014, and that nearly 1 million of those jobs were filled by workers who otherwise would have stayed out of the labor market.
Key quote: “The analysis based on this simple inference implies that the cut in benefits in 2014 can explain nearly all of the observed aggregate employment growth in 2014. The abrupt reversal in the relative employment growth trend of high benefit states and border counties in December 2013, right at the time when the benefit durations were cut, strongly suggests that our analysis indeed identifies the implications of this particular policy change. There were no other policy changes at the turn of 2014 likely to have significant labor market implications. Moreover, we are not aware of any policy changes that could have differentially affected states depending on their pre-reform benefit duration.”
Data they used: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why don't you cite the source? This from the
> right wing nut job rag WashingtonExaminer
No. It's a National Bureau of Economic Research paper:
The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?
Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
NBER Working Paper No. 20884
Issued in January 2015
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20884
The new article is just reporting on it and there are similar reports published elsewhere including on Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com site:
Title: “The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?”
Authors: Marcus Hagedorn, Iourii Manovskii, Kurt Mitman
What they found: The elimination of emergency unemployment benefits at the end of 2013 played a major role in spurring the subsequent acceleration in job growth in 2014.
Why it matters: When the recession struck in 2008, Congress voted to extend unemployment benefits beyond the standard 27 weeks offered by most states. The program was gradually pared back during the recovery, and at the end of 2013, Congress allowed it to expire entirely. Many conservative economists said the program was doing more harm than good by providing the long-term jobless an incentive not to look as hard for work. Liberal economists were more skeptical, as was I; in an article last spring, I found little evidence that the end of emergency benefits was pushing the jobless back to work. But in this paper, the authors argue that conservatives were right and that the cutoff of benefits helps explain the surge in hiring in 2014. They use county-level data to show that places where the reduction in benefits was greatest also experienced the greatest job gains. They estimate that the policy change led to the creation of 1.8 million jobs in 2014, and that nearly 1 million of those jobs were filled by workers who otherwise would have stayed out of the labor market.
Key quote: “The analysis based on this simple inference implies that the cut in benefits in 2014 can explain nearly all of the observed aggregate employment growth in 2014. The abrupt reversal in the relative employment growth trend of high benefit states and border counties in December 2013, right at the time when the benefit durations were cut, strongly suggests that our analysis indeed identifies the implications of this particular policy change. There were no other policy changes at the turn of 2014 likely to have significant labor market implications. Moreover, we are not aware of any policy changes that could have differentially affected states depending on their pre-reform benefit duration.”
Data they used: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.